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Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: Jpurdue] #13499870 04/03/20 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Originally Posted by WAWI
And for you isolationist types what are you gonna do if after 2 months of lock down, social distancing, masks, handwashing etc in a place like New York the numbers are still rising? At what point do you say that isnt working.


I wouldn't say I'm an isolationist type. I'd say I'm a slow it down so we can to buy scientists time and avoid overwhelming the hospitals type. Since we don't know if the scientist will come through or not, our next best option is getting to herd immunity as fast as we can without overloading hospitals. If somehow our hospitals had infinite capacity I'd be a let it rip type as I think the death rate is 1% or less under ideal circumstances. This dang thing just seems to spread so fast we know it'll overwhelm hospitals. Hence the need to pump the breaks. Virtually every country on the planet is doing the same thing and trying. It would be interesting to see if some country chose to just let it rip. To my knowledge nobody has chose that route.


Thank you JP for your realistic assessment. You have a unique ability to clearly explain your thoughts which have some basis in fact. Please keep it up.

Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: tech] #13499875 04/03/20 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by tech
Originally Posted by WAWI
I'm just posting the real numbers as they stand today J. The facts.

the facts are 16509 cases that have come to conclusion in the US and 6098 have died. So if you are tested positive you have a 36% chance of dying... do the math


That is a ridiculous piece of math. Designed to spread fear. Everyone knows the death rate isnt nearly close to that number

Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: Not2Old2Fish] #13499880 04/03/20 01:07 PM
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two weeks ago there were 14366 cases in the US at 8am, granted they were only testing the elderly at that time, with symptoms..36% died what am I missing?


Trust your own instinct. Your mistakes might as well be your own, instead of someone elses.
Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: WAWI] #13499893 04/03/20 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by WAWI
Originally Posted by tech
Originally Posted by WAWI
I'm just posting the real numbers as they stand today J. The facts.

the facts are 16509 cases that have come to conclusion in the US and 6098 have died. So if you are tested positive you have a 36% chance of dying... do the math


That is a ridiculous piece of math. Designed to spread fear. Everyone knows the death rate isnt nearly close to that number


I agree you can't look at it like this. It takes 2 negative tests in 48 hours to be counted as recovered. Tests are so hard to come by right now a lot of folks who are probably recovered are just not getting priority on the test. Rightfully so. All the scientists seem to think that under ideal circumstances the death rate is somewhere between .5-3.0%. I personally believe it's probably on the lower end of the range. (It's important to note though that even at .5%, that's 5 times more deadly than the normal flu).

Once hospitals get overwhelmed it probably jumps up to 5-10%. (I would not say NYC is overwhelmed just yet. They may get there soon though).

Last edited by Jpurdue; 04/03/20 01:14 PM.

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Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: RO519] #13499895 04/03/20 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by RO519
Originally Posted by tech
Originally Posted by WAWI
I'm just posting the real numbers as they stand today J. The facts.

the facts are 16509 cases that have come to conclusion in the US and 6098 have died. So if you are tested positive you have a 36% chance of dying... do the math


How many of those that died were 90+ years old, that smoked for 70+ years with COPD or some other existing condition where catching the regular flu would have killed them? How many cases have gone undiagnosed and the person recovered?

The only thing the numbers your are touting do is spread a false narrative.


I'll tell you that number Reid, 97% in Louisiana. 97% of the deaths had underlying conditions.


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Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: tech] #13499904 04/03/20 01:17 PM
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Originally Posted by tech
two weeks ago there were 14366 cases in the US at 8am, granted they were only testing the elderly at that time, with symptoms..36% died what am I missing?


Common sense, that's what you are missing.

Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: Urban Fisher] #13499906 04/03/20 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Urban Fisher

That is interesting. Going to bookmark it. thumb

You should put that in it's own thread.

Last edited by retdbasser; 04/03/20 01:30 PM.

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Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: tech] #13499907 04/03/20 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by tech
two weeks ago there were 14366 cases in the US at 8am, granted they were only testing the elderly at that time, with symptoms..36% died what am I missing?

I keep wondering the same thing.


The solution to any problem - work, love, money, whatever - is to go fishing, and the worse the problem, the longer the trip should be. --John Gierach

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Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: ReelBusy] #13499911 04/03/20 01:21 PM
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I haven't been wearing a mask due to the lack of supplies for the medical community but will put on a home made mask on the next trip for groceries.


Prepare for the future-it will be here tomorrow.
Personal Best Large Mouth Bass 9 lbs. 12 oz 5/13/19.
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Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: Not2Old2Fish] #13499912 04/03/20 01:21 PM
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It does appear the US death rate will be higher than some other places because we are fatter than most places. The south, especially.


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Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: Not2Old2Fish] #13499913 04/03/20 01:22 PM
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of course I don't think the death rate is that high, just that two weeks ago we had fewer tested positive cases [14366] than we have conclusions today [16509] with 6098 deaths. Look at Italy and France conclusions...The death rate may very well be way higher than anticipated..We need to see the recoveries skyrocket now that we are testing everyone that has symptoms..


Trust your own instinct. Your mistakes might as well be your own, instead of someone elses.
Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: Not2Old2Fish] #13499914 04/03/20 01:23 PM
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It will be interesting to see what the #'s do in Sweden. They aren't doing the lock in/stay at home thing -- unless you are sick. So far, they are doing well, but time will tell.


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Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: WAWI] #13499916 04/03/20 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by WAWI
Originally Posted by tech
two weeks ago there were 14366 cases in the US at 8am, granted they were only testing the elderly at that time, with symptoms..36% died what am I missing?


Common sense, that's what you are missing.

at least I can do Math


Trust your own instinct. Your mistakes might as well be your own, instead of someone elses.
Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: Not2Old2Fish] #13499917 04/03/20 01:24 PM
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Who doesn't have an underlying condition? Cardiovascular disease. Diabetes. Obesity. High Blood Pressure. Smokes or has smoked in the past. Over 60. Asthma. Immune compromised. Cancer survivor. Blood type A. I think that covers about most adults.

Heck I'm 37 and can go run 5 miles right now without any issue. I've got high blood pressure though, have since I was in my late 20s.


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Re: Coronavirus cases reaches over 1 million worldwide [Re: bassinbiker] #13499920 04/03/20 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by bassinbiker
It will be interesting to see what the #'s do in Sweden. They aren't doing the lock in/stay at home thing -- unless you are sick. So far, they are doing well, but time will tell.


Will be interesting to watch

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