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Most Online39,925 Dec 30th, 2023
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: Dan90210 ☮]
#13499048
04/02/20 07:58 PM
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Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 14,704
Frenzy
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 14,704 |
The six Bay Area counties coordinated and shut things down early. Even waiting 2-3 days to take action has a large effect. The charts in this article are a week old, but still relevant. Note South Korea had its first confirmed case on Jan. 20 and the USA on Jan. 22, but South Korea took quick action. Contrast that to Florida and Georgia, which just now shut down--watch what will happen there. The San Francisco Bay area did it right.That article seemed to have an agenda....I like how they call out Texas and post numbers to tout their area as being the leader and who to follow. I notice though that they did not point out that the death rate for the whole state of Texas is about the same as just the Bay Area. Comparing a city like San Francisco to New York City is pointless. Apples to oranges. San Fran has a much lower population density per square mile, a lot more people using cars instead of public transit, etc. NYC is one of the densest populations in the world.....and most of them ride the subway everyday. Very few people who like in San Francisco proper have cars. They all about that BART and Lyft life. They walk, talk BART or the trolley cars... ballers take Lyft. Uber is rare there. No room for cars. Everyone of my coworkers drives to our downtown SF office, some drive "close enough" and then BART. They'll uber/lyft/public to go to lunch or something.....but again....SF is not even close to what the subway system is in NYC nor is the population density. It's just not an accurate comparison.
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13499052
04/02/20 08:02 PM
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 28,612
Gusick
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 28,612 |
I'll be glad to crunch the numbers on whatever data set you can give me. I used the only one I could find. For the time being, any number we use for actual infection rate would have to be made up.
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13499062
04/02/20 08:06 PM
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Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,015
tech
TFF Team Angler
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TFF Team Angler
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,015 |
two weeks ago on March 19th we had 13475 confirmed cases in the US. Now we have 14468 conclusions with 5607 deaths. I would say that most of the cases 2 weeks ago have come to a conclusion. Someone tell me the death rate is not huge. This Is only people tested. So if you are sick enough to be tested you have a 38% chance of dying?
Trust your own instinct. Your mistakes might as well be your own, instead of someone elses.
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13499076
04/02/20 08:14 PM
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Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 19,200
ToadSnatcher14
Team Slot Fish
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Team Slot Fish
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 19,200 |
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13499080
04/02/20 08:17 PM
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Joined: May 2007
Posts: 40,511
WAWI
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 40,511 |
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13499085
04/02/20 08:18 PM
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Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 8,621
Smurfs
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 8,621 |
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: WAWI]
#13499086
04/02/20 08:18 PM
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Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 15,279
Kicker16
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 15,279 |
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: ToadSnatcher14]
#13499105
04/02/20 08:25 PM
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 10,380
barndoor
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 10,380 |
That is funny, even though he is actually spraying the fence.
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13499141
04/02/20 08:46 PM
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Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3,835
donothin
TFF Team Angler
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TFF Team Angler
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3,835 |
Hey JPurdue or Tallgrass or anyone who has a grasp of statistics, I have a question. I understand flattening the curve so the medical facilities are not overwhelmed. But it seems to me that you have to have a significant percent of the population that has to have resistance from having it before relaxing the isolation procedures, otherwise we will just escalate again. That is assuming that warm temps do not significantly reduce the incidence. So how can we hope to be back to normal within a month? 70% of the population would need to get and recover from the virus to get herd immunity. Baring a major advancement in a treatment of some sort or warm weather seasonality, you are exactly correct. It'll just come back. Again and again until we get to 70%. So any hope of this ending within a couple of weeks is just that, hope without much foundation. We are not nearly there, but it will continue increasing at an increasing rate. Hopefully we can get there without turning critically ill away from the hospital and keeping healthcare workers healthy.
Last edited by donothin; 04/02/20 08:46 PM.
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: donothin]
#13499238
04/02/20 09:43 PM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,389
Jpurdue
OP
TFF Celebrity
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OP
TFF Celebrity
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,389 |
Hey JPurdue or Tallgrass or anyone who has a grasp of statistics, I have a question. I understand flattening the curve so the medical facilities are not overwhelmed. But it seems to me that you have to have a significant percent of the population that has to have resistance from having it before relaxing the isolation procedures, otherwise we will just escalate again. That is assuming that warm temps do not significantly reduce the incidence. So how can we hope to be back to normal within a month? 70% of the population would need to get and recover from the virus to get herd immunity. Baring a major advancement in a treatment of some sort or warm weather seasonality, you are exactly correct. It'll just come back. Again and again until we get to 70%. So any hope of this ending within a couple of weeks is just that, hope without much foundation. We are not nearly there, but it will continue increasing at an increasing rate. Hopefully we can get there without turning critically ill away from the hospital and keeping healthcare workers healthy. Tough to know sir. The magic number here is R0. It matters far more than any other variable. If it's 2 or below (naturally), our social distancing measures already in place may slow this thing down and we could be coming out of this thing in June or July (if we held the measure in place long enough to get total active case numbers down into the hundreds where they could be tightly managed). This is essentially China's plan. If R0 is 2.5 or above (naturally) we are probably screwed until we get a therapy, a vaccine, or herd immunity. That's how much R0 matters, just a small variation and it means the difference between being in control and being screwed.
Last edited by Jpurdue; 04/02/20 09:47 PM.
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L. www.LunkerLore.com
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13499605
04/03/20 02:30 AM
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Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3,835
donothin
TFF Team Angler
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TFF Team Angler
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3,835 |
JPurdue's statement that reliable test are essential is proving to be true. So much misinformation about test and PPE has been so prevalent that no one has a clue of what to expect. Not sure what has been behind the misinformation but it certainly has done nothing to build confidence.
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: Tallgrass05]
#13677668
08/23/20 02:23 PM
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Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 72,559
Mark Perry
Super Freak
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Super Freak
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 72,559 |
The six Bay Area counties coordinated and shut things down early. Even waiting 2-3 days to take action has a large effect. The charts in this article are a week old, but still relevant. Note South Korea had its first confirmed case on Jan. 20 and the USA on Jan. 22, but South Korea took quick action. Contrast that to Florida and Georgia, which just now shut down--watch what will happen there. The San Francisco Bay area did it right.Did they really do it right?
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Re: When will the country reopen?
[Re: Mark Perry]
#13677779
08/23/20 04:05 PM
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Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 22,582
lconn4
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 22,582 |
The six Bay Area counties coordinated and shut things down early. Even waiting 2-3 days to take action has a large effect. The charts in this article are a week old, but still relevant. Note South Korea had its first confirmed case on Jan. 20 and the USA on Jan. 22, but South Korea took quick action. Contrast that to Florida and Georgia, which just now shut down--watch what will happen there. The San Francisco Bay area did it right.Did they really do it right? I'm still trying to figure out my beliefs on quantum mechanics but after reading the linked report, studying the author's background, and noticing it was posted on April Fools Day, I'll say NO.
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