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Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
#13420037
01/29/20 02:46 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 999
Blue Moon
OP
Pro Angler
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OP
Pro Angler
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 999 |
LeoLabs, is monitoring a close approach event involving two dead satellites. The birds counterrotating orbits intersect today over Pittsburg, PA, at 5:39 pm Central. Because the dead birds are in counterrotating orbits and one of the birds, IRAS (Infrared Astronomical Satellite) is very large, with a mass over 1000 kilograms, a head-on impact at a velocity of 14.9 kilometers per second (33,330 mph) would be catastrophic and add thousands of pieces of space debris into low earth orbit. The concern of a head-on space collision like this is the potential chain reaction as each satellite collision turns two objects into thousands of smaller objects that endanger other satellites we depend on. The more space junk in orbit makes it more difficult to plan future launches and manage birds in orbit. The issue is many of the now dead or soon to fail birds were launched with no plans to de-orbit after their missions are complete. It’s much more difficult to track the smaller objects and we still don’t have a scaleable solution to collect space debris. SpaceNewsLeoLabsLeoLabs TwitterBlue Moon
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Blue Moon]
#13420065
01/29/20 03:17 PM
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Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 12,720
Curt0407
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 12,720 |
With all the junk in orbit, it may not be long before the Earth will look like it has rings like Saturn.
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Blue Moon]
#13420071
01/29/20 03:20 PM
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Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 29,865
Duck_Hunter
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 29,865 |
Yikes
This will be interesting.
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Duck_Hunter]
#13420090
01/29/20 03:40 PM
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 26,219
patriot07
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 26,219 |
Yikes
This will be interesting. +1
Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards. - Soren Kierkegaard
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Blue Moon]
#13420096
01/29/20 03:43 PM
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Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 83,282
Pilothawk
Pumpkin Head
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Pumpkin Head
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 83,282 |
Yeppers...
Sometimes the big sky theory doesn’t work.
KANSAS JAYHAWK BASKETBALL - Where tradition comes from 2008 NATIONAL BASKETBALL CHAMPIONS-ORANGE BOWL CHAMPIONS 2008 52 Conf Champs /5 Nat'l Champs
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Blue Moon]
#13420101
01/29/20 03:45 PM
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Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 9,539
TR176
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 9,539 |
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Blue Moon]
#13420128
01/29/20 04:02 PM
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 25,903
T Bird
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 25,903 |
Another Elon Musk business opportunity in the making. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Dead Satellite Recovery and Removal LLC
Okie by birth, Texan by choice. USAF "Thunderbirds" Alumni 1985-1989
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: TR176]
#13420132
01/29/20 04:04 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 999
Blue Moon
OP
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OP
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Posts: 999 |
I don't bet but from a statistical standpoint a few days ago it was 1-in-100, as they get closer, last time I checked this morning LeoLabs had the chances at 1-in-1000. They are expecting a near miss with only 13 to 87 meters separation. In space terms, that's very close. The data sets they are using for modeling are very good but not good enough to pinpoint the intersection. There is apparently no danger for any ground impact. Just a danger to what is in space and what's to come.
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: T Bird]
#13420137
01/29/20 04:07 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 999
Blue Moon
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OP
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Posts: 999 |
Another Elon Musk business opportunity in the making. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Dead Satellite Recovery and Removal LLC For sure. Also LeoLabs (LEO=Low Earth Orbit) is a startup of wicked smart guys that saw the opportunity to monitor what is going on in low earth orbit. SpaceX and all the other companies are keeping them busy and flush with cash.
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Blue Moon]
#13420144
01/29/20 04:13 PM
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Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 8,591
Oldrabbit
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 8,591 |
Heck, lets just send up the space shuttle and have them grab one of them then go after the other one. Oh, we can't since we got out of the shuttle business and depend on others to take care of stuff like this.
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Blue Moon]
#13420152
01/29/20 04:21 PM
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Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 989
RonL
Pro Angler
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Pro Angler
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Posts: 989 |
Starlink just sent a missile into space this morning saying they are launching 60 internet satellites in space for high speed internet world wide . The weather channel showed the launch this morning . NASA has already said they cannot monitor all the space junk in space now but they do know that even the ISS has been effected in the past and has had some close calls ! The right junk striking the wrong place on the ISS can take the whole Space Station down and kill all aboard .
Last edited by RonL; 01/29/20 04:21 PM.
RonL
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: RonL]
#13420270
01/29/20 05:48 PM
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Joined: May 2009
Posts: 978
MAK747
Pro Angler
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Pro Angler
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 978 |
Starlink just sent a missile into space this morning saying they are launching 60 internet satellites in space for high speed internet world wide . The weather channel showed the launch this morning . NASA has already said they cannot monitor all the space junk in space now but they do know that even the ISS has been effected in the past and has had some close calls ! The right junk striking the wrong place on the ISS can take the whole Space Station down and kill all aboard . SpaceX is shooting to have 12,000 Starlink satellites in orbit by the mid to late 2020's. Its going to begin to get a bit crowded up there.
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Blue Moon]
#13420395
01/29/20 07:40 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 999
Blue Moon
OP
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OP
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Update - In the last few hours, LeoLabs has increased the probability impact from 1 in 1000, to 1 in 100, and now to 1 in 20 based on new data. The GSSR decommissioned US spy satellite appears to be on a path that will pass directly above the IRAS satellite. The GSSR passing directly above has an 18 meter boom designed to point down toward earth. It’s unclear if the GSSR is stable or spinning. While LeoLabs still believes it will be a very near miss, if the GSSR is stable with the boom pointing downward, it greatly increases the chances of impact. Blue Moon
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Blue Moon]
#13420402
01/29/20 07:49 PM
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 32,922
Scagnetti
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 32,922 |
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Re: Possible Head-On Satellite Collision - 5:39 pm Central over USA
[Re: Blue Moon]
#13420411
01/29/20 07:52 PM
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Joined: May 2017
Posts: 491
skeeterK
Angler
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Angler
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 491 |
Should the Chicken Littles of the World be worried?
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