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Dec 30th, 2023
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 Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
[Re: Guide Richie White]
#11637614
05/31/16 05:47 PM
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Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 6,674
texasbass1
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 6,674 |
There's an 85% chance that 90% of the people will be disappointed with the forecast.
Pat Leach
USAF MSgt Retired
92 Procraft 180 Pro
24 Mercury 150 Pro XS 4 Stroke
Minn Kota Ulterra 80
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Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
[Re: Guide Richie White]
#11637638
05/31/16 05:52 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 46,913
Mudshark
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 46,913 |
When they say 100% it means the total area will get rain. 50% chance of rain means only 50% of the area will get it. They can't do a forecast for your yard or it would say 0% chance or % 100% chance but never anything beside that. The forecast covers several thousand square miles, and if you look at the accuracy of the forecast over that wide area, they are pretty accurate.
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Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
[Re: kirbydog]
#11637674
05/31/16 06:04 PM
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Joined: May 2010
Posts: 360
TXBeerHunter
Angler
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Angler
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 360 |
Getting the weather wrong is one thing-getting the wind forecast wrong is like a rite of passage for weathermen. I've been out on lakes when winds were supposed to be 5-10 and they were 20-30. And I've stayed home on days when its supposed to be windy and theres no wind at all.
I have heard, add and then double. 5-10 forecast is 15 and double is 30.
"If worms carried pistols, birds wouldn't eat 'em."
- Darrell Royal
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Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
[Re: Mudshark]
#11637946
05/31/16 07:47 PM
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 1,179
Guide Richie White
OP
Extreme Angler
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OP
Extreme Angler
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 1,179 |
When they say 100% it means the total area will get rain. 50% chance of rain means only 50% of the area will get it. They can't do a forecast for your yard or it would say 0% chance or % 100% chance but never anything beside that. The forecast covers several thousand square miles, and if you look at the accuracy of the forecast over that wide area, they are pretty accurate. My app has a place for text. It says "chance of rain 100%". If they mean 100% of the area, they could say "100% of the area". But what does that really mean if that is the case?
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Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
[Re: Guide Richie White]
#11637960
05/31/16 07:51 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 46,913
Mudshark
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 46,913 |
When they say 100% it means the total area will get rain. 50% chance of rain means only 50% of the area will get it. They can't do a forecast for your yard or it would say 0% chance or % 100% chance but never anything beside that. The forecast covers several thousand square miles, and if you look at the accuracy of the forecast over that wide area, they are pretty accurate. My app has a place for text. It says "chance of rain 100%". If they mean 100% of the area, they could say "100% of the area". But what does that really mean if that is the case? Next time when you listen to the weatherman on the news, listen for the word coverage. They say that word many times rather than saying percent chance of rain. It changes the meaning of the forecast when you hear it that way.
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Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
[Re: Mudshark]
#11638190
05/31/16 09:27 PM
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Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 14,194
Razorback
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 14,194 |
Next time when you listen to the weatherman on the news, listen for the word coverage. They say that word many times rather than saying percent chance of rain. It changes the meaning of the forecast when you hear it that way.
How is 100% coverage of rain different than a 100% chance of rain? If they say everyone and every place in the area will get rain...that is the same thing as saying there is a 100% chance of rain at any given place. A 100% chance of anything means there is no possibility whatsoever that it won't happen. If there are factors that can change and lower the probability, it was never really 100% to begin with.
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Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
[Re: Guide Richie White]
#11638436
05/31/16 11:09 PM
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Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,470
SoCal Tom
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,470 |
There's a 100% chance it's flat pouring outside right now and has been for a while... 
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Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
[Re: Guide Richie White]
#11638549
06/01/16 12:08 AM
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Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,221
adam_p
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,221 |
When they say 100% it means the total area will get rain. 50% chance of rain means only 50% of the area will get it. They can't do a forecast for your yard or it would say 0% chance or % 100% chance but never anything beside that. The forecast covers several thousand square miles, and if you look at the accuracy of the forecast over that wide area, they are pretty accurate. My app has a place for text. It says "chance of rain 100%". If they mean 100% of the area, they could say "100% of the area". But what does that really mean if that is the case? I'd like to say this will clear it up, but since you haven't gotten by now it will probably just confuse you more. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop
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Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
[Re: Guide Richie White]
#11645787
06/03/16 11:23 PM
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Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 16,992
ezbassin
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 16,992 |
They are wrong 80% of the time but still get paid 100% of the time.
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Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
[Re: Guide Richie White]
#11645821
06/03/16 11:41 PM
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Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10,984
Rayzor
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10,984 |
How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain - and then change their mind?
Is is just my opinion - or does 100% chance mean there's no way it can't happen?
I looked at the forecast for Wednesday and it said 100% chance of rain on Wednesday. It now says 90%.
My guess is that they will lower it by Tuesday. They usually do.
How do they have credibility when they can claim 100% and then change their mind? The same way they predict 0% chance of rain. They use all the modern gizmos and gadgets they have to make a prediction. They are never 100% right either way.
Be safe, Rayzor ![[Linked Image]](http://i418.photobucket.com/albums/pp267/JLedbetter/th_Boatpics036.jpg) 2001 Triton Tx-21/225 Mercury EFI
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