Will this cold front do a number on some Shad ? How will that effect the Bite for Channel and Blue Cat ?

Bodies of water have a Thermocline. The colder it is on the top layer. The more the warm water stays on the bottom.


Come spring and it'll flip. Cold on the bottom.

I think the water is still warm enough that it should just push the bait deep and make them school up tight. Should make for some one-throw of the net bait catching...

Tater, I believe that the sudden drop in temp coupled with a very strong wind is definitely going to cause a shad kill in most of our local lakes. It's been warm enough that a bunch of shad are gonna get caught napping when this front hits. Yesterday afternoon I caught a boat load of 6-8 inch gizzard shad in 12-16 feet of water. The surface temps were from 50 to 53 degrees but there was a lot of bait in pretty shallow water.



This screenshot is a prime example of what Tim is talking about with the one-throw. I literally threw my net once for a bucket full of big gizzards and not one threadfin.

I'll bet that on Friday morning you can go to any south shoreline and see a bunch of dead shad. I'm sure the front will have a negative effect on the bite in the first 24 hours but I doubt you or anyone else will be out on the water before it gets back above arctic.

Now, if I'm right about the shad kill, there's going to be an absolute monster feeding frenzy for days in these areas once it warms a bit. I would add that any point that runs East or West out into deep water is going to be a great spot to focus on as well as the deep water areas along dams.




On those points, I would fish both sides. On the first day I would anchor down and fan cast to the really shallow water on the northern side of these where the dead shad will stack up along the shoreline and then, after a day or two, I would drift fish south from the point out into deeper water to get on the fish that are picking up shad that drifted off the point.

The reality is, regardless of what happens, this is going to be the real start of our winter pattern for the blues. Over the next few weeks you're going to notice the belly's of these fish looking really swollen. They're going to be feeding heavily. Actually, they're going to be eating heavily....I'll be the one feeding. Feeding them a steady diet of fresh shad!

Interesting Geno, I didn't think about them getting caught unawares. I am making plans for the day after Christmas. To me that is going to be the pick day...The wind is forecast to turn around out of the South on Christmas day. So Monday should be a good day with the fish stacked in their wintering holes. This potential shad kill you mention might change things up if it comes to be. Forecast is for the temp to be back up in the 70s later in the week. Weather can't seem to make up its mind!

Skeet,

That screen shot of all that bait is amazing. The shoreline you mentioned to fish with the dead shad stacked up, wouldn't that be the south shoreline? Reason I was thinking the north wind would push them to the south shore, or am I not seeing something right?

Rowdy, yes the south shoreline would be correct. On the points that run east or west, some of the shad will drift around the point and then south away from the point into deeper water and some will drift a little bit around the point along the opposite shoreline which would be the north shoreline(or "south facing" shoreline).

Tim, I could absolutely be dead wrong about this but it could literally be the "perfect storm" for these conditions to be met. Shad will generally start to die off with water temps in the mid forties. When I was at the lake yesterday the surface temps were around 50 so, it's entirely feasible with a 40 mph wind and temps in the teens for this to take place. If it does, there could definitely be an opportunistic situation for this coming week. Personally, I don't see why the shad wouldn't just high tail it to deeper water. I mean, when the in the kitchen gets a little too high, I'm outta there! Oh, wait, that's a marriage thing lol. Anyway, I have seen numerous video's from areas up north where this takes place each year. Here's a link to a great video on a shad kill from Catfish Dave.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EntYuEtCNQ

Now, he's obviously fishing in a river but I imagine it could happen in a lake as well.

Thanks Y'all for some great advise .

Strictly my opinion but......Threadfin are pretty stupid, and some may get caught unaware. I doubt many Gizzards will be caught in too cold a water. They do usually hang out until the last minute though, before heading deep. That being said, in some lakes it will be unavoidable. Because they simply aren't deep enough for brutal cold. My home lake is a good example. You won't find water deeper than 22-23 feet. Although, when the cold weather hits and the surface water temps get near 50 degrees, if you have a deep-water net, you can usually get all you need for the day in one throw.

David, you're probably right about the gizzard shad. I think it's mostly the threadfin that usually die off. I think the gizzard shad are a bit more hardy. I never thought about the lake depth either. That may be one of the biggest factors in a shad kill. I don't know enough about it really. I mean, to be honest, most of my theories haven't had near enough scientific testing. I have a thought and then I try it, and most of the time I'm dead wrong or I'm right once and then the next three times I find out I was dead wrong to begin with. I think half of the fun is the trial and error. One of these days, I'm gonna know enough to actually help people out here lol.

I was out yesterday morning early to get bait. Did not see any evidence of a shad kill. Interesting though, the threadfin were all over the lake but high in the water column. they were from about 10 feet down to 15 or 18 feet of water. They were in that plane all over the lake. Surface temp was 45 to 47 degrees. Would have expected to see the blues stacked up deep but they weren't. They were still scattered all over the place and they were finicky too. We caught several fish in the teens and lost a couple bigger ones but didn't see the winter pattern we expected.

Tim, these fish are smarter than we are! I think you're right about the shad kill. I have a couple of friends on different lakes that didn't see any evidence of it either. I think we may be too far south for this to happen here. I guess it may still be a few weeks or more before we really see the winter pattern set up. I know it's not gonna stop me from getting out there and trying. Weren't you the one that told me, "there won't be any fish caught from a couch"?

Hey Geno! I think you're right. Just when we think we have them figured out, they go and change things up on us. I also think last year spoiled us. They were easy to catch most all winter long. What happen one year is not a pattern. Things are not going to be the same year over year. I think we are going to have to work a little harder to get them big blues in the boat this year. They have been scattered since we were in post spawn this year and they are still scattered. But as you mentioned Geno, you can't catch 'em, if you don't go! Get out there and get after 'em...