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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Icepick]
#13542712
05/02/20 04:04 PM
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Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 25,374
ReelBusy
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 25,374 |
From the article you posted but doesn't seem like you read; "It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)" Seems that statement would make the numbers go up, not down. They did go up. They go up every day. Until the numbers are revised and they go down Bing numbers today
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Icepick]
#13542721
05/02/20 04:08 PM
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Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 29,862
Duck_Hunter
OP
TFF Guru
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OP
TFF Guru
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 29,862 |
From the article you posted but doesn't seem like you read; "It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)" Seems that statement would make the numbers go up, not down. They did go up. They go up every day. So, that’s my original question. What am I missing here? The death toll reported was in the 60,000s or “higher than the number we lost in Vietnam.” But the CDC says it’s actually being revised down. Am I missing something, other than the obvious (what Ray Bob pointed out)?
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Duck_Hunter]
#13542723
05/02/20 04:08 PM
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Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 22,230
Davedave
Bigfoot Seeker
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Bigfoot Seeker
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 22,230 |
Where does it state that they were revised down? Maybe they have, but I don’t see that. I see where they say there is a lag, and it may differ from other sources. If I had to bet, I would bet $6 that in a couple of weeks or so, it will be real close to what I see on a different dashboard.
Either way, all data should be fairly close by the end of the year. If it’s a 2 or 3 week lag, then the percentage difference is much higher now. The percentage difference will be much lower by the end of the year.
Or, none of the above.
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Davedave]
#13542725
05/02/20 04:11 PM
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Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 25,374
ReelBusy
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 25,374 |
Where does it state that they were revised down? Maybe they have, but I don’t see that. I see where they say there is a lag, and it may differ from other sources. If I had to bet, I would bet $6 that in a couple of weeks or so, it will be real close to what I see on a different dashboard.
Either way, all data should be fairly close by the end of the year. If it’s a 2 or 3 week lag, then the percentage difference is much higher now. The percentage difference will be much lower by the end of the year.
Or, none of the above. The only source for death counts are through the states and the states report up to the federal agencies like CDC. So all the news and other sources just pull them out of their arse?
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Duck_Hunter]
#13542727
05/02/20 04:11 PM
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 25,893
T Bird
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 25,893 |
Okie by birth, Texan by choice. USAF "Thunderbirds" Alumni 1985-1989
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Duck_Hunter]
#13542730
05/02/20 04:12 PM
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Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,960
John175☮
MACHO MAN
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MACHO MAN
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,960 |
“Do not pray for easier lives. Pray to be stronger men.” -JFK
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: ReelBusy]
#13542733
05/02/20 04:14 PM
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Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 22,230
Davedave
Bigfoot Seeker
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Bigfoot Seeker
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 22,230 |
Where does it state that they were revised down? Maybe they have, but I don’t see that. I see where they say there is a lag, and it may differ from other sources. If I had to bet, I would bet $6 that in a couple of weeks or so, it will be real close to what I see on a different dashboard.
Either way, all data should be fairly close by the end of the year. If it’s a 2 or 3 week lag, then the percentage difference is much higher now. The percentage difference will be much lower by the end of the year.
Or, none of the above. The only source for death counts are through the states and the states report up to the federal agencies like CDC. So all the news and other sources just pull them out of their arse? I don’t know how to copy and paste on an iPad, and I’m too lazy to pull it up on a regular computer. Read that sentence where it says it can take several weeks.... That indicates to me that there is a lag, as they are counting this stuff. As I said, I think the numbers will start to get closer as the year goes on. I will watch. I don’t have anything else to do except grow facial hair, and work in the yard.
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: T Bird]
#13542734
05/02/20 04:15 PM
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Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 18,070
Icepick
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 18,070 |
This thread needs more cowbell ...
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Davedave]
#13542742
05/02/20 04:21 PM
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Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 25,374
ReelBusy
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 25,374 |
Where does it state that they were revised down? Maybe they have, but I don’t see that. I see where they say there is a lag, and it may differ from other sources. If I had to bet, I would bet $6 that in a couple of weeks or so, it will be real close to what I see on a different dashboard.
Either way, all data should be fairly close by the end of the year. If it’s a 2 or 3 week lag, then the percentage difference is much higher now. The percentage difference will be much lower by the end of the year.
Or, none of the above. The only source for death counts are through the states and the states report up to the federal agencies like CDC. So all the news and other sources just pull them out of their arse? I don’t know how to copy and paste on an iPad, and I’m too lazy to pull it up on a regular computer. Read that sentence where it says it can take several weeks.... That indicates to me that there is a lag, as they are counting this stuff. As I said, I think the numbers will start to get closer as the year goes on. I will watch. I don’t have anything else to do except grow facial hair, and work in the yard. As I said, there should only be one data source and set of numbers and that data comes from government sources. The rest of it made up BS. The number you see may be adjusted for the lag but to see another number and then adjust it down saying it's due to lag is pure BS. Why throw a number out there when there isn't any data due to the lag?
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Davedave]
#13542747
05/02/20 04:25 PM
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Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 29,862
Duck_Hunter
OP
TFF Guru
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OP
TFF Guru
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 29,862 |
Where does it state that they were revised down? Maybe they have, but I don’t see that. I see where they say there is a lag, and it may differ from other sources. If I had to bet, I would bet $6 that in a couple of weeks or so, it will be real close to what I see on a different dashboard.
Either way, all data should be fairly close by the end of the year. If it’s a 2 or 3 week lag, then the percentage difference is much higher now. The percentage difference will be much lower by the end of the year.
Or, none of the above. Ok, then the more accurate question would be: where did the media get the 65,000 number? And what does the 37,000 number in the link I posted in the OP mean, compared to what the media has been reporting all week? What am I missing? https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-live-updates-us-surpasses-65000-covid-19/story?id=70467380
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Duck_Hunter]
#13542760
05/02/20 04:34 PM
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Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 18,070
Icepick
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 18,070 |
The site I read provides links to the state data they use to assimilate numbers. One of the things you're "missing" could be the result of no uniform process for reporting data. Every state has their own system. Based on what metric, who knows.
This thread needs more cowbell ...
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Duck_Hunter]
#13542761
05/02/20 04:34 PM
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 23,418
J.P. Greeson
the janitor
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the janitor
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 23,418 |
I have a compromised immune system - I take Humira for psoriasis and it knocks down my immune system. I used to never get sick, but since I started Humira 10+ years ago, I get sick with the flu for 2-3 weeks once a year. Obviously this has made me err on the side of caution. Both Elizabeth and I have limited our public exposure. It's a lot easier to do when you live at the lake. We have friends over and just sit outside. Elizabeth doesn't mind wearing a mask, so she has been doing our grocery shopping and runs to the post office.
We will continue to be cautious about exposure, but I am questioning the numbers.
The solution to any problem - work, love, money, whatever - is to go fishing, and the worse the problem, the longer the trip should be. --John Gierach
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Emit R Detsaw]
#13542762
05/02/20 04:36 PM
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Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 25,374
ReelBusy
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 25,374 |
LOL, you might want to look at the data source reference on the bottom of the page Emit.
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Re: Can someone explain this to me?
[Re: Icepick]
#13542766
05/02/20 04:38 PM
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Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 25,374
ReelBusy
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 25,374 |
The site I read provides links to the state data they use to assimilate numbers. One of the things you're "missing" could be the result of no uniform process for reporting data. Every state has their own system. Based on what metric, who knows. The states report to CDC and other federal agencies. The missing piece is where do the high numbers come from? Projected?
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