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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: Icepick] #13492543 03/29/20 03:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Icepick
Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Tough to know where to start here. First and foremost though you are comparing full year statistics of mostly avoidable things with fairly stable death rates to a virus that has been around in the US for about 2 months and is growing exponentially. Two days ago 268 people died of the virus. Yesterday 401 died. Today it'll probably top 500. Tomorrow what'll it be?

It's true roughly 40,000 people die per year in car accidents. That's 100 per day. If that were doubling every three or 4 days days though, you can bet your bottom dollar folks would be very concerned about cars.

If you don't want to die from smoking, don't smoke.

If you don't want to die from Alcohol, don't drink.

Avoiding COVID-19 is not so simple.

Hopefully this thing will just go away. Hopefully it'll stop spreading exponentially. Hopefully hospitals won't get swamped. Hopefully the number dying daily will start to decline. Hope though, is not a strategy.

Stay safe sir!


flehan



Well said.
The folks who continue to downplay this pandemic are living in a bubble that will burst soon.
Comparing causes of death as if that somehow lessens the seriousness of this virus is foolish.
Today the first infant died.
A month ago everyone thought only the elderly and people with preexisting conditions were in serious danger. Obviously that's been proven wrong.


The infant tested positive for the virus, but it will be Tuesday or Wednesday before they actually know the cause of death. Might want to tap the brakes there.

Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: MrRoachie] #13492634 03/29/20 05:27 AM
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Originally Posted by MrRoachie
Why are people saying it has only been here 2 months? That is lie.

I personally know 1 person and have heard of several others that had an unknown virus 4 or 5 months ago.

Long before tests were available.



Tell me, specifically, how said “unknown virus” test was confirmed? I’ve yet to hear of that unknown virus test.

The German Institute of Virology that developed the first assay to test for the novel Coronavirus did so in mid-January 2020 which is actually the same time the guy from California brought the virus home from Wuhan.

Unless you know a lot of people from Wuhan then there’s no way your buddy had this particular virus. It’s been in the US almost exactly two months like others have said.

If you have evidence otherwise, let’s have a look.


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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: MrRoachie] #13492635 03/29/20 05:29 AM
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Originally Posted by MrRoachie
Why are people saying it has only been here 2 months? That is lie.

I personally know 1 person and have heard of several others that had an unknown virus 4 or 5 months ago.

Long before tests were available.

I had an unknown virus that almost killed me in 2012. Using your logic, Covvid was here then!

Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: soggybottom] #13492646 03/29/20 06:05 AM
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Originally Posted by soggybottom
Guys, of course the numbers are growing. They told us that. It will keep growing no matter what is done for at least a week. Its science. Then it should strart to drop. Its not the zombie apocalypse so chill.

Yes, the numbers will grow. Along this thread, there has been some discussion about the number of deaths, and the death rate. All of these are our current best-of-care managed outcomes using a healthcare system that can absorb the punch. Soon, it will become overwhelmed in certain areas and no longer be able to save the percentage of cases as it is doing right now. Whatever that percentage is, however you calculate it, the reality is it will get worse simply from lack of care.

Without flattening the infection rate, more regions will saturate and begin to track higher deaths per 1000 cases. On March 28, we had 411 new deaths. That number has been doubling every 3 days. The curve track says March 31 will have ~822 deaths in a single day. April 3 it will likely hit ~3200 NEW deaths PER day. Unchecked, that won't slow down until it can't find enough new victims to infect. Lets run some "oh carp" (but unfortunately reasonable data tracking) numbers for the next 7 days.

March 28 total is 1707. Lets add: 1707 + 411 + 822 + 822 + 1644 + 1644 + 3288 + 3288 = ~10,338 total predicted death toll just 7 days away. That will be just getting started, sadly. In just two additional days it will likely top 20,000. Whatever the real numbers are, there will be an ever-worsening outcome from the lack of care. How long will you stay on board with "the loss is acceptable to keep the economy going" approach? Hint: the impact of this toll will be so shocking that the economy is going to be trashed if you choose the very option some of you believe will save it.

Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: rj74955] #13492648 03/29/20 06:15 AM
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Originally Posted by rj74955
Originally Posted by Icepick
Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Tough to know where to start here. First and foremost though you are comparing full year statistics of mostly avoidable things with fairly stable death rates to a virus that has been around in the US for about 2 months and is growing exponentially. Two days ago 268 people died of the virus. Yesterday 401 died. Today it'll probably top 500. Tomorrow what'll it be?

It's true roughly 40,000 people die per year in car accidents. That's 100 per day. If that were doubling every three or 4 days days though, you can bet your bottom dollar folks would be very concerned about cars.

If you don't want to die from smoking, don't smoke.

If you don't want to die from Alcohol, don't drink.

Avoiding COVID-19 is not so simple.

Hopefully this thing will just go away. Hopefully it'll stop spreading exponentially. Hopefully hospitals won't get swamped. Hopefully the number dying daily will start to decline. Hope though, is not a strategy.

Stay safe sir!


flehan



Well said.
The folks who continue to downplay this pandemic are living in a bubble that will burst soon.
Comparing causes of death as if that somehow lessens the seriousness of this virus is foolish.
Today the first infant died.
A month ago everyone thought only the elderly and people with preexisting conditions were in serious danger. Obviously that's been proven wrong.


The infant tested positive for the virus, but it will be Tuesday or Wednesday before they actually know the cause of death. Might want to tap the brakes there.



Yeah, uh huh.
That makes as much sense as saying the person tested positive for AIDS but it will be Tuesday or Wednesday before they actually know the cause of death.
The cause of death is most likely pneumonia, which the infant wouldn't have had if not for the virus.
If you died tomorrow following a car accident would you feel better if the LEO/medical examiner listed the cause of death as severe head trama?


This thread needs more cowbell ...
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: Icepick] #13492666 03/29/20 07:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Icepick

Yeah, uh huh.
That makes as much sense as saying the person tested positive for AIDS but it will be Tuesday or Wednesday before they actually know the cause of death.
The cause of death is most likely pneumonia, which the infant wouldn't have had if not for the virus.
If you died tomorrow following a car accident would you feel better if the LEO/medical examiner listed the cause of death as severe head trama?


Actually it does. They could have had a heart attack brought on by stress. Eventually we will have people who at death, test positive but the virus had nothing to do with how they died... it just happened to be present when they got in a car wreck.

Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: Kattelyn] #13492672 03/29/20 07:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Kattelyn
Originally Posted by Icepick

Yeah, uh huh.
That makes as much sense as saying the person tested positive for AIDS but it will be Tuesday or Wednesday before they actually know the cause of death.
The cause of death is most likely pneumonia, which the infant wouldn't have had if not for the virus.
If you died tomorrow following a car accident would you feel better if the LEO/medical examiner listed the cause of death as severe head trama?


Actually it does. They could have had a heart attack brought on by stress. Eventually we will have people who at death, test positive but the virus had nothing to do with how they died... it just happened to be present when they got in a car wreck.


Okay got it.
The infant was stressed out and had a heart attack.
The virus was irrelevant.


thumb


This thread needs more cowbell ...
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: badgrandad] #13492673 03/29/20 07:20 AM
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What matters is to find out. It wasn’t supposed to hurt the really young. So why is this one different? What comorbidities were in play?

Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: Kattelyn] #13492679 03/29/20 07:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Kattelyn
What matters is to find out. It wasn’t supposed to hurt the really young. So why is this one different? What comorbidities were in play?


Why are Americans between the ages of 20-44 accounting for a higher percentage (29%) of the hospitalizations than those in the 65-84 (25%) age group? Many questions don't have answers at this time and may never have answers.


This thread needs more cowbell ...
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: Tallgrass05] #13492690 03/29/20 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Tallgrass05
That's why you're not a medical doctor or an epidemiologist.


Are you? I don't think medical doctors or an epidemiologist care about the economy or the destruction they are doing.


“Do not pray for easier lives. Pray to be stronger men.” -JFK
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: Tallgrass05] #13492755 03/29/20 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Tallgrass05
Comparisons to things like auto deaths and smoking are invalid. Auto deaths don’t spread or grow at a great rate. And in a parallel to sheltering in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus, there are a host of things we do to reduce auto deaths--traffic laws, signage, stop lights, mandatory seatbelts, airbags, safety glass, other technology, etc.

Smoking is a choice. Drinking is a choice.


Yeah, but some of you all continue to ignore those killed or injured by the drunk drivers or drivers texting and etc.. Those innocent people did not have a "choice". I suspect the overall number of these innocent people getting killed from drunks, the flu, cancer, and all those other things the past decade and future ones will far exceed these COVID-19 deaths.

The end mathematical result can not be ignored - a moderate amount of deaths each year for many years from drunks and etc or a large number in a short period of time because of a virus is the contextual argument.

I guess it depends on what you are most "scared" of on a personal level.

Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: JacksonBean] #13492759 03/29/20 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by JacksonBean
Originally Posted by GIG'EM AGGIES
At my local Walmart yesterday I was amazed, flabbergasted, astounded, dismayed and utterly dumbfounded to see that only 3 other people besides myself were wearing mask and gloves. One older gentleman made a home made mask but at least he was trying. There were many couples with 3-4 kids roaming the isles and touching everything. I understand that mask and gloves aren't readily available but you don't have to take your whole family shopping with you. I get the impression that many think " oh, that won't happen to me ". Well it has and will. I was also semi-shocked that the employees working the deli weren't wearing mask or gloves.
Maybe I'm just over reacting.



There’s a reason for that Gig. Masks are for the sick people. It’s so you don’t infect others with YOUR germs. If you’re sick, you should be at home. That’s not to say there’s not a group at Walmart that might open mouth sneeze on you but Covid 19 has to be in a droplet. You can’t breathe it in like the measles or a true aerosol contagion.

If you see someone walking around with a mask on it’s really only for one of three reasons:

1) You’re sick
2) You’re uneducated regarding the specifics of the virus
3) You need it as a reminder to not touch your face

Other great choices might be that you’re Chinese or just making a fashion statement. That’s why the social distancing works. Your snot, saliva, etc leaves the area when you do. Other viruses don’t play so nice.

Stay safe folks,
JB

P.S. Before you post a link where someone says it’s an aerosol, check Medline for peer reviewed literature to back up the claim.

wink


Lots of scientists are working trying to figure this out. You are probably right, but the reality is they do not know for sure yet. This article says WHO doesn't know for sure and accuses them of being irresponsible telling folks the virus cannot be aerosolized. This virus is brand new. Until we know for sure for sure, I plan to keep wearing N95 masks on grocery runs. I know you are no dummy, but I take exception to calling someone uneducated who wears a mask.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/28/8232...-on-coronavirus-transmission-through-air


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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: badgrandad] #13492768 03/29/20 01:19 PM
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Are you also sanitizing the toilet paper you hoarded?

Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: Jpurdue] #13492783 03/29/20 01:31 PM
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You’re correct. It’s everyone’s personal choice how they choose to stay safe in these crazy times.

At first they were carefully rationing those to hospital workers where aerosols are generated routinely but I can assure you that if I was up at a hospital I’d be wearing one.

We all need to take precautions so I’ll happily retract my statement. wink


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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19 [Re: badgrandad] #13492791 03/29/20 01:33 PM
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According to CNN article the average age of deaths in Italy is 78 years old.

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