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A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
#13491909
03/28/20 05:08 PM
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 588
badgrandad
OP
Pro Angler
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OP
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 588 |
I was sent this by a friend who is an older Doctor:
A quick apology was given that mortality rates were the main statistic used, but it still makes you wonder why things are so messed up right now given the following stats:
As of 3/27/20 at 1p.m.
COVID 19 Worldwide--577,660 cases 26,448 deaths
U.S. - 94,425 cases 1,429 deaths
This makes the death rate 1.5% in the US and the Doctor went on to say that it is actually is lower because the "deaths" included people who died of other causes like car accidents or other medical problems but tested + for COVID 19 at autopsy or hospital.
In New York ( which is the hardest US hit city the death rate was 1.1%)
Per the CDC:
2017/2018
in the US Flu hospitalized 810,000 and killed 61,000 which makes it 42.7 times more lethal so far than COVID 19)
Per the Medical Publication - The Lancet (12/13/19)
Flu kills 291,000 - 646,000 per year world-wide
2017 Malaria killed 435,000 world-wide
Per the CDC:
In the US--
Smoking killed 480,000 LAST YEAR including 41,000 from second-hand smoke,
Alcohol killed 88,000 every year from 2006 - 2010,
Last year 19,510 were murdered in the US
47,173 died from suicide in the US,
40,992 died from sepsis in the US,
38,800 died in traffic accidents in the US.
Again, there may be facts we are not being told, but the response to this crisis seems unprecedented .
Hope this brings some perspective though, and hope calm thoughtful minds prevail.
Just because you can, doesn't mean you should!
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13491931
03/28/20 05:27 PM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,389
Jpurdue
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Posts: 8,389 |
Tough to know where to start here. First and foremost though you are comparing full year statistics of mostly avoidable things with fairly stable death rates to a virus that has been around in the US for about 2 months and is growing exponentially. Two days ago 268 people died of the virus. Yesterday 401 died. Today it'll probably top 500. Tomorrow what'll it be?
It's true roughly 40,000 people die per year in car accidents. That's 100 per day. If that were doubling every three or 4 days days though, you can bet your bottom dollar folks would be very concerned about cars.
If you don't want to die from smoking, don't smoke.
If you don't want to die from Alcohol, don't drink.
Avoiding COVID-19 is not so simple.
Hopefully this thing will just go away. Hopefully it'll stop spreading exponentially. Hopefully hospitals won't get swamped. Hopefully the number dying daily will start to decline. Hope though, is not a strategy.
Stay safe sir!
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L. www.LunkerLore.com
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13491937
03/28/20 05:31 PM
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Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 43,998
Tallgrass05
bill maher's protege
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bill maher's protege
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 43,998 |
Comparisons to things like auto deaths and smoking are invalid. Auto deaths don’t spread or grow at a great rate. And in a parallel to sheltering in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus, there are a host of things we do to reduce auto deaths--traffic laws, signage, stop lights, mandatory seatbelts, airbags, safety glass, other technology, etc.
Smoking is a choice. Drinking is a choice.
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13491943
03/28/20 05:36 PM
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Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 5,181
JacksonBean
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There’s so much misinterpretation with what you posted and JPurdue made a great initial dissection.
You say he’s a “doctor.” So is my mom but you better cal 911 if she’s in the room and someone loses consciousness.
Is he an MD? DVM possibly? PhD?
These comparisons to things like car accidents are downright comical.
Wash your hands and be smart about who you’re around in the meantime.
Stay safe,
JB
Edited.... you beat me to it tallgrass
Last edited by JacksonBean; 03/28/20 05:37 PM.
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13491950
03/28/20 05:40 PM
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Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 11,146
9094
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The most important thing was the flu deaths as they are in the same category as covid. I agree the test don’t matter. But I agree with the point he is making which is disastrous over reaction.
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13491961
03/28/20 05:46 PM
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 21,992
Caribou
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Posts: 21,992 |
The flu kills more people, but with a much lower death rate. Of everybody infected by the flu, less than .01% die from it. It’s FAR less lethal than Covid-19. People really need to stop comparing the 2. And these kinds of posts/email chain serve no purpose other than to make people think this is no big deal, and in turn will put themselves at risk. After all a “doctor” said it’s not even that bad.
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13492166
03/28/20 08:45 PM
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 588
badgrandad
OP
Pro Angler
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OP
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 588 |
The person who posted it was a emergency room physician in the DFW metroplex. I’m assuming the point was, that there are a lot of things that kill us that there have been and are a number of things that have and do cause deaths in the population to a much greater degree than we see with the Covid virus that don’t and haven’t resulted in the behaviors we see now. However I plan on trying hard to avoid getting sick
Last edited by badgrandad; 03/28/20 08:47 PM.
Just because you can, doesn't mean you should!
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: 9094]
#13492177
03/28/20 08:54 PM
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Joined: May 2007
Posts: 40,441
WAWI
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The most important thing was the flu deaths as they are in the same category as covid. I agree the test don’t matter. But I agree with the point he is making which is disastrous over reaction. This and great post OP, a little realism as opposed to panic monkey posts
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: 9094]
#13492209
03/28/20 09:30 PM
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,737
JCG57
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The most important thing was the flu deaths as they are in the same category as covid. I agree the test don’t matter. But I agree with the point he is making which is disastrous over reaction. Massive overreaction that will make a few people much richer and a lot of folks much poorer. For some, that is also a choice, like smoking or drinking.
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13492210
03/28/20 09:30 PM
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Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 9,200
the skipper
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The comparison to the flu is stupid, and irresponsible. Not fear mongering but theres no comparison yet. Most people with covid get sent home without diagnosis. The flu rarely goes undiagnosed because test are easily available. The real reason I say theres no comparison is because the testing is vastly different. When covid test are as readily available as flu test then comparisons can be made. Until test are available we are all only guessing at the real numbers, although I think the experts can probably get close
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13492214
03/28/20 09:34 PM
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Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,945
John175☮
MACHO MAN
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MACHO MAN
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,945 |
For the good of the collective remain in your safe space until released.
“Do not pray for easier lives. Pray to be stronger men.” -JFK
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13492219
03/28/20 09:37 PM
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Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 18,070
Icepick
TFF Guru
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Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 18,070 |
Tough to know where to start here. First and foremost though you are comparing full year statistics of mostly avoidable things with fairly stable death rates to a virus that has been around in the US for about 2 months and is growing exponentially. Two days ago 268 people died of the virus. Yesterday 401 died. Today it'll probably top 500. Tomorrow what'll it be?
It's true roughly 40,000 people die per year in car accidents. That's 100 per day. If that were doubling every three or 4 days days though, you can bet your bottom dollar folks would be very concerned about cars.
If you don't want to die from smoking, don't smoke.
If you don't want to die from Alcohol, don't drink.
Avoiding COVID-19 is not so simple.
Hopefully this thing will just go away. Hopefully it'll stop spreading exponentially. Hopefully hospitals won't get swamped. Hopefully the number dying daily will start to decline. Hope though, is not a strategy.
Stay safe sir! Well said. The folks who continue to downplay this pandemic are living in a bubble that will burst soon. Comparing causes of death as if that somehow lessens the seriousness of this virus is foolish. Today the first infant died. A month ago everyone thought only the elderly and people with preexisting conditions were in serious danger. Obviously that's been proven wrong.
This thread needs more cowbell ...
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13492224
03/28/20 09:41 PM
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Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,945
John175☮
MACHO MAN
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MACHO MAN
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,945 |
The more we test the lower the death rate. Initially they were only testing those admitted to a hospital. There are far more walking around with it and not even aware.
I don't downplay the pandemic. If you are in the high risk pool get away from everyone. Isolate yourself. You have a 1 in 6 chance of dying. Treating everyone the same is ridiculous and our economy cannot sustain such folly.
“Do not pray for easier lives. Pray to be stronger men.” -JFK
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13492233
03/28/20 09:47 PM
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 21,992
Caribou
TFF Guru
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Posts: 21,992 |
The person who posted it was a emergency room physician in the DFW metroplex. I’m assuming the point was, that there are a lot of things that kill us that there have been and are a number of things that have and do cause deaths in the population to a much greater degree than we see with the Covid virus that don’t and haven’t resulted in the behaviors we see now. However I plan on trying hard to avoid getting sick Except that none of the things you posted have as high of a mortality rate as Coronavirus currently has. So none of them are causing deaths to a greater degree than Covid-19.
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Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: John175☮]
#13492238
03/28/20 09:51 PM
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 21,992
Caribou
TFF Guru
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 21,992 |
The more we test the lower the death rate. Initially they were only testing those admitted to a hospital. There are far more walking around with it and not even aware.
I don't downplay the pandemic. If you are in the high risk pool get away from everyone. Isolate yourself. You have a 1 in 6 chance of dying. Treating everyone the same is ridiculous and our economy cannot sustain such folly. You don’t get it. You can’t only put the high risk away. The number of infected people would be so astronomical without what we are currently doing that the medical system would collapse and we would end up in a far worse economical state by the time it was over. Our current course of action is the best course of action to actually make a dent in the spread, and maintain some semblance of an economy. It’s not the death toll that really matters in how this effects us. It’s in the number of people who would need medical assistance. If you put the high risk population away, and the other 70% of the population got vivid within 2 weeks of each other, we would be in FAR worse shape than we are now.
Last edited by Caribou; 03/28/20 09:54 PM.
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