I know this is a little obsessive but I'm sure there are several of you who will find this interesting.

Last night Channel 12 News showed there was an estimated 8" of rain that fell around the headwaters of the Medina River.
According to the USGS website the Medina River at Bandera had a peak of 18,000 cfs this morning. We still have more rain on the way but I highly doubt it will be enough to maintain 18,000 cfs. I would be very surpised if the flow at Bandera was not below 10,000 cfs by Saturday afternoon.

Before last yesterday afternoon the Medina River at Bandera was consistently 130-180cfs for the last 30 days. Assuming the gage at Bandera is correct, the 18,000 cfs peak is 100X greater than the average cfs for the last 30 days.



Here's a link to the USGS real time data.
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?cb_000...ite_no=08178880

The rain storm we had in early February resulted in a peak flow at Bandera around 1,800 cfs. This mornings peak flow was 18,000 cfs is 10X the peak flow in early February, Medina Lake came up about 8 feet in a two week period in early February.

Here's a couple graphs for early February.
Medina Lake Level February 1st to February 15th

Medina River at Bandera Level (the daily data only shows mean daily flow, it doesn't show the peak)


Anyone have any predictions on how many feet Medina Lake will come up over the next two weeks?

Aren't they supposed to be doing repairs to the dam? I wonder if this will set it back any. Its gone up over a foot in less than twenty four hours. If they let all that water out to do the repairs it would be a shame that it finally got aome water after it has been low for so long.

Thanks for the graph AAA20206. I haven't used the NOAA website for Medina but have used it for Falcon. The NOAA website graph in my opinion is a little better than the USGS website graph.
Here's an image of the USGS graph.

Anyone else want to guess how much water Medina will have in it May 1st?

I may be too optimistic but I'm going to guess on May 1st Medina will be 20 feet deeper and will be at 1053 elevation. By the end of May I think Medina will come up another 11 feet and be at full pool (1064 elevation).

i say thats a little wishful thinking,BUT i hope its true. that poor lake is in need of major help with wter levels. but she'll come around

Your right it may be too optomistic. I would put money on Medina being at least 10 feet deeper in two weeks. At this point it is going to be very difficult to make a good guess but in a few days it it will be easier to predict.

i agree medina needs all the help it can get growin up we had a place right on the water an then my parents sold it, was on the lake last year and went by and the water was down bout 20 foot lake jus looks like hell an hope it can fill up cuz its a beautiful lake an can produce some very good fish

Just spoke with Gloria at Joe's Marina at the Medina Lake Dam and here is the latest information.

The Medina River crested last night at 18 ft, it has now settled down to 15 ft.
They are expecting that water to come on down.
Current lake level is 29.3 below spillway
Hopeful to rise to 28 or 27 ft level in the next few days.

So to glad to see this little Hill country lake that I cut my teeth on get some water after being nearly 60 ft down this past summer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fsu2_6cM4is&NR=1

Debra

Medina is more than 4 feet deeper in a 24 hour period (6am yesterday to 6am today). I still think Medina will catch at leas t10 feet by May 1st.

If I wasn't so lazy, I would calculate the volume beneath the hydrograph (cfs v. time) and divide it by the surface area of the lake. 43,560 square feet per acre. That would give a rough estimate of the potential increase in feet. You have to work out your units correctly, seconds to hours etc. Hydrologists usually use acre-feet as a volume measurement because it simplifies calculations and is a manageable number, and because they are goofy.