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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: Squirrely Dan]
#13901593
02/25/21 02:33 PM
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Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 4,033
machinist
TFF Team Angler
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TFF Team Angler
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 4,033 |
Having spent 35 years working at gas fired power plants, I can say that the damage caused by a low frequency blackout would probably take a couple of months to repair. The biggest problem in trying to repair things is parts availability. None of the plants keep any inventory on hand like they did 25 or 30 years ago. Next would be the manpower. Knowledgable people are not standing on the curb waiting on a job and every plant would need them. I talked to the control operator at the plant where I worked about 15 minutes after the power went off and he was still so shook up he could hardly talk. And this guy has been a control operator for 20 years and has just about seen it all.
Last edited by machinist; 02/25/21 02:34 PM.
I fish on the edge and stay out of the middle
99 BassCat Jag w/225 Merc Optimax Retired TXU Outage Manager
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: COFF]
#13901603
02/25/21 02:39 PM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,389
Jpurdue
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,389 |
I'm not sure I understand how low frequency could cause the system to crash. Here's my guess... They'd have to shut everything down to protect equipment if the frequency got to low. Once you've shut everything off you are in trouble. I would think it would be impossible to bring it all online at the same time. So it would be like hooking a small generator into your panel at home with all the breakers on. It would instantly trip when you fired it up. You'd need to shut them all off and turn them on one at a time while you added generation capacity. How many breakers "transformers" would they have to shut off manually and turn on manually to get this to happen? How long would that take?! Anyway, that's just a guess on my part.
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L. www.LunkerLore.com
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: machinist]
#13901606
02/25/21 02:40 PM
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Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 11,008
BigDozer66
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 11,008 |
Having spent 35 years working at gas fired power plants, I can say that the damage caused by a low frequency blackout would probably take a couple of months to repair. The biggest problem in trying to repair things is parts availability. None of the plants keep any inventory on hand like they did 25 or 30 years ago. Next would be the manpower. Knowledgeable people are not standing on the curb waiting on a job and every plant would need them. I talked to the control operator at the plant where I worked about 15 minutes after the power went off and he was still so shook up he could hardly talk. And this guy has been a control operator for 20 years and has just about seen it all.
2016 Ranger RT188 Charcoal Metallic Dual Console 2017 Yamaha 115 VMAX SHO (VF115LA) SS Prop Minn Kota Ultrex i-Pilot Link 45" 80 lb. Humminbird Helix 10 Mega SI BalZout Console Humminbird Helix 10 Mega SI BBT Bow Mount Trick Step
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: machinist]
#13901611
02/25/21 02:44 PM
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Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 534
1956Zebco
Pro Angler
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Pro Angler
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 534 |
Having spent 35 years working at gas fired power plants, I can say that the damage caused by a low frequency blackout would probably take a couple of months to repair. The biggest problem in trying to repair things is parts availability. None of the plants keep any inventory on hand like they did 25 or 30 years ago. Next would be the manpower. Knowledgable people are not standing on the curb waiting on a job and every plant would need them. I talked to the control operator at the plant where I worked about 15 minutes after the power went off and he was still so shook up he could hardly talk. And this guy has been a control operator for 20 years and has just about seen it all. As said before: once the WWII generation died out of running things, the whole system fell apart within 10 years. Roads, infrastructure, power - all of it (except games - we've got some great I-phone based gamers now). Doesn't bode well.
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: Squirrely Dan]
#13901637
02/25/21 03:05 PM
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Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 41,205
CCTX
mapquest
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mapquest
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 41,205 |
Texas should check and update/upgrade other infrastructure while they are fixing the energy grid. Water Natural gas Communications Roads
Overall maintenance and preparedness. Deregulation and free market competition are great as long as there is an authority to make sure quality control is maintained.
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: Squirrely Dan]
#13901664
02/25/21 03:20 PM
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Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,548
tx_basser
TFF Team Angler
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TFF Team Angler
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,548 |
I suspect many have know this has been a problem for a while, the lack of winterization, capacity, etc. You can't say this is unpredictable because we have weather records going back over a hundred years as well as population/growth data.
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: Squirrely Dan]
#13901667
02/25/21 03:21 PM
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Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 41,205
CCTX
mapquest
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mapquest
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 41,205 |
Absolutely predictable. Slaps on the wrist 1988 and 2011. The severity of this storm was predicted 3 weeks in advance by all the meteorlogists/computer models.
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: Squirrely Dan]
#13901677
02/25/21 03:28 PM
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Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 951
outdoor-addict
Pro Angler
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Pro Angler
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 951 |
Let's compare our "grid / system / setup" with those in the upper Midwest that routinely get that sub-freezing weather.........they don't have state wide outages or reports of catastrophic collapse.
Last edited by outdoor-addict; 02/25/21 03:29 PM.
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: Squirrely Dan]
#13901680
02/25/21 03:32 PM
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Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 12,636
MBradford
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 12,636 |
"We're Texas, we don't need nobody to tell us how to run our 'lectrical system."
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: outdoor-addict]
#13901716
02/25/21 04:03 PM
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Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 29,866
Duck_Hunter
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 29,866 |
Let's compare our "grid / system / setup" with those in the upper Midwest that routinely get that sub-freezing weather.........they don't have state wide outages or reports of catastrophic collapse. Their grid is built for negative temperatures because that’s what routinely happens every winter. Ours is built for 105° summer temperatures, because that’s what we routinely get here. Houses in Montana aren’t built to withstand a Category 5 hurricane, either. I’m not saying the recommendations to winter-proof the plants shouldn’t have been done, nor am I saying that is the sole reason we almost lost the grid (because it’s not, and I’m very interested to see what shakes out, because I think it’s going to be a combination of the war on coal, green energy, not building for severe cold, ERCOT, PUC, Feds, state government and maybe more). People from the northeast and Midwest were laughing at us all week, while not understanding we don’t have snow plows and salt trucks like they do because we get snow or ice for a couple of days and not a week of single digits and snow routinely. We can afford to wait a day until it’s 68° the next day and it melts. I have a college buddy that lives outside of Pittsburgh. His parents’ house has a gas furnace and window units, no central AC. Blew my mind, until I realized it just doesn’t get that hot there. A lot of us have heat pumps, which I’m sure people are wishing wasn’t the case after last week. Improvements to the grid need to be made. This is twice in a decade that the grid was stressed by winter weather and nearly suffered a catastrophic event. It needs to be fixed, but comparing it to the Midwest doesn’t make anymore sense than saying the Upper Peninsula should be built for two months of 105° in the summer.
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: Duck_Hunter]
#13901729
02/25/21 04:10 PM
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Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 72,579
Mark Perry
Super Freak
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Super Freak
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 72,579 |
Let's compare our "grid / system / setup" with those in the upper Midwest that routinely get that sub-freezing weather.........they don't have state wide outages or reports of catastrophic collapse. Their grid is built for negative temperatures because that’s what routinely happens every winter. Ours is built for 105° summer temperatures, because that’s what we routinely get here. Houses in Montana aren’t built to withstand a Category 5 hurricane, either. I’m not saying the recommendations to winter-proof the plants shouldn’t have been done, nor am I saying that is the sole reason we almost lost the grid (because it’s not, and I’m very interested to see what shakes out, because I think it’s going to be a combination of the war on coal, green energy, not building for severe cold, ERCOT, PUC, Feds, state government and maybe more). People from the northeast and Midwest were laughing at us all week, while not understanding we don’t have snow plows and salt trucks like they do because we get snow or ice for a couple of days and not a week of single digits and snow routinely. We can afford to wait a day until it’s 68° the next day and it melts. I have a college buddy that lives outside of Pittsburgh. His parents’ house has a gas furnace and window units, no central AC. Blew my mind, until I realized it just doesn’t get that hot there. A lot of us have heat pumps, which I’m sure people are wishing wasn’t the case after last week. Improvements to the grid need to be made. This is twice in a decade that the grid was stressed by winter weather and nearly suffered a catastrophic event. It needs to be fixed, but comparing it to the Midwest doesn’t make anymore sense than saying the Upper Peninsula should be built for two months of 105° in the summer. Those same people laughing would probably melt with 10 days over 100 and nights at 95 degrees. They look at living in the cold weather as a badge of toughness. Its apples and oranges.
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: Squirrely Dan]
#13901745
02/25/21 04:17 PM
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Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 5,190
fishslime
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 5,190 |
Abbott got his best robotic act out yesterday and emphatically stated this would be fixed. We'll see if recommendations are made or mandates will happen this time.
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: fishslime]
#13901749
02/25/21 04:21 PM
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Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,963
John175☮
MACHO MAN
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MACHO MAN
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,963 |
Abbott got his best robotic act out yesterday and emphatically stated this would be fixed. We'll see if recommendations are made or mandates will happen this time. Give it a rest slimey. It's not a political problem.
“Do not pray for easier lives. Pray to be stronger men.” -JFK
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Re: How bad did Ercot drop the ball...
[Re: fishslime]
#13901757
02/25/21 04:27 PM
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Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 72,579
Mark Perry
Super Freak
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Super Freak
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 72,579 |
Abbott got his best robotic act out yesterday and emphatically stated this would be fixed. We'll see if recommendations are made or mandates will happen this time. You try to make everything about politics.
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