It ain't slowin' em down down here. $2.29/lb boiled. I know it's messed up y'all though, that sucks. Thought about an outdoor boil and curbside pickup?

32 lb sack of live is $65 some places. Want me to load 20 sacks in a kiddie pool in the back of my truck and meet you in Natchitoches?

Yes, with 1500+ people dead just so far today from the virus, I imagine there are a bunch of folks on this forum that need to be doing some serious crawfishing. Those who said social distancing was not necessary. Those who said this whole thing was a hoax. Those who said this thing was no worse than the regular flu. All those people should be eating a big pile of crow.

Today 4/7/20.
Who's opinion has been proven right with what we know today, IYO of course.

The task force said this week would be a rough week but we should be over the hump after this. I believed them so today and this week will be no surprise. They also said to expect more cases confirmed as testing ramps up and not to panic. I trust them on that as well. You bet I am happy the death toll is WAY under the projections...yours included. Looks like things may get on track sooner than later. We are nowhere near the exponential doomsday death tolls that were kicked out by many and that is a reason to have hope we are gonna keep seeing numbers improve especially the death rate. Few tout that the recovery rate lags a bit too and we should see it rise a lot more in the coming days too.

Meanwhile, France's mortality rate is 3 times that of ours.

This thing makes absolutely no sense at all.

I never put out a death toll projection, other than to say at some point this week I expected it to exceed 2,000 in a single day. So it's not my estimate you are referencing. The doomsday numbers that were flying around were folks arguing it could get seriously bad if we did nothing.

I too hope we are seeing positive signs here. If we could get back to normal tomorrow and I had to eat a bowl of crow for that to happen, I'd say LOAD me up.

Neither side has proven right or wrong with any certainty quite yet. The projections initially were pretty inflated though. That much is a fact.

Any large projection you saw was if we did nothing. Since virtually every state did something, those projections are if then statements that never came to fruition. 99% of the arguing that has taken place on this forum in the past two weeks has been tied to the decision to shut down. Some folks arguing that was wise, because if we didn't the death toll could be very high. Others arguing if we did the economic toll could be very high. As far as I can tell most people have been right except the guys arguing the whole thing was a hoax.

Projections were made on what the numbers might be if we didn't control the spread and now they're based on what is happening in real time. Pretty simple. More bonafide data you have the closer your projections.

absolutely

No offense but i do not need you to explain to me what I saw or how to digest it....I have followed this from early on and have spent a good amount of time looking at and comparing models. I know what I have seen, read and heard with my own eyes and ears. Not trying to be rude but I just do not feel you are in a position of knowledge in this situation to "teach" me about it. You are digesting what you are seeing same as anyone else. We both have opinions and that is all they are. There have been multiple projections with all types of scenarios. Many went scorched Earth, inflated the numbers and went for the scare tactic mentality. Sadly a lot of actions were based on little to no information. Maybe its time to reevaluate some things?
I have watched the Task Force speak and seen the entire news conference word for word then see many articles posted minutes later totally twisting what they just stated. Its almost insane seeing this happen and then people run with it as fact when their words get twisted.

Again, you cannot go from projections of millions and millions to 400,000 to 240,000 to 100,00 to 93,000 to 81,000 in a week or two and expect for the US citizenship to continue to trust some of these projections. It really points to the the real possibility now that we probably could have kept people working and implemented social distancing work policies and still be pretty close to where we are now. Economy better off, healthcare limits still being respected and maintained etc.

I cannot think of a more vocal all knowing coronavirus expect on this site. No offence. Just stating my observations. You've put out more predictions than Nostradamus.

There fixed it for you. Plus those were all correct.

No offense, but I'm not sure what you don't understand Mark. Trump and Trumps experts said, "If we don't do these things millions could die." We did the things and millions didn't die. So I'm not sure what the issue here is. They were if then statements and you are completely ignoring the if. That matters.

Plus I think just about everyone has been extraordinarily clear on the limitations of models. Models are based on inputs, we still don't have a great sense of what those inputs are. (R0, mortality rate, hospitalization rate, total case prevalence, ICU Rate, etc...)

That is the beauty of it...you do not have to be sure of how I understand it....it is up to me to form my own opinions on it and from what I have seen "if" was not always used in all of these projections. There is no way you can deny you have been one of the leaders in pushing the projections with the higher death rates on here since this has started. You have also taken it upon yourself to be the "teacher" of all things COVID-19 on here to the point of making sure many positive type posts in regards to the virus get a dose of doom and gloom and fear. You are all about numbers, many of us get that but at the end of the day all many of us have said since day one is we had faith and hope that the numbers would be way less. We are seeing more evidence of that now. Its a good thing. No one is saying its over but if things stay like they are trending then we need a serious reevaluation of how we are dealing with this on many levels and start using that data to move forward rather than knee jerk reactions and scare tactics.