I don't know of a clean way to do that. I just know going back to early last week there were less than 5,000 cases. So given there are nearly 40,000 now, one would assume most or are new cases. (Although to be completely fair, that may be a bad assumption.) I agree, so far the number of critical cases in the US is low. That's either because there are a bunch of new cases that haven't gone critical or we are some how fairing better than other countries.

Only if there are in fact more cases.

I hesitate to post this link, but it's frankly a bit frightening. I think it really highlights how this virus is different from past pandemics. There is a positive and hopeful message towards the back half.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4no04822NQ&feature=youtu.be

We’re not fairing better than other countries except Italy.

Italy is the only outlier. And their death rate from this per population is 1/12000. Which means if we get as bad as Italy, Denton Texas will have 10 people die from it. 192 people in Houston will die.

If we go off South Korea’s death rate then maybe 1 person will die in Denton and 5-6 people in Houston will die.

Right now, odds are nobody you know will die from this. Yes, a lot of people will get it, but so what. 98% of those that get it just have normal flu/cold symptoms.
So if you know 100 people that get It, 98 will have mild to low symptoms and the 2 that get bad will most likely be old and have other health problems.

Man, those numbers are just incorrect. ~80% have mild symptoms, which by definition means they don't require hospital care. 20% are severe or critical meaning they require hospital admittance. 20% of flu cases do not require hospital care. 2-3% appear to be fatal at this point. (hopefully that goes down). Most of us will know people that wind up in the hospital from this. Most of us will know people who die from this. I understand the desire to stay positive here, it's a virtuous thing right now, but misinformation can be dangerous.

Those would be very useful numbers if the pandemic were over. As of right now, it's like calling the damage report from a hurricane that is still offshore. It's a meaningless.

I’ve read differing numbers on critical or severe. South Korea had 1% severe or critical

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/


Again, which model are you basing your numbers off of? The worst case ones?

Your World Clocks that you reference shows 95% having mild symptoms and 5% serious/critical. The U.S. shows 98% mild and 2% serious/ critical. Where are you getting 80/20?

So you’re saying Japan’s or South Korea’s death rate will go up now that they’re past the worst of it? If ours follows the same path then the numbers are extremely useful.

The data is on the CDC website somewhere. Wife is dragging me off on a car ride to see bluebonnets. This is the best source I could scrape up on my way out the door.

"80% of coronavirus cases are mild to moderate — which ranges from having a fever and a cough to low-grade pneumonia. It might still be miserable, but you can heal up on your couch at home.

Data from China shows that 20% of COVID-19 patients, though, are serious enough to get sent to the hospital. That's about ten times more often than flu. Even though a great many people are hospitalized for the flu — the preliminary data for the 2018-19 flu season is nearly half a million — the rate of hospitalization is far lower: 1-2% percent of cases, according to the CDC.

For coronavirus, "what's particularly concerning are the number of people who are progressing to need hospital level care and then eventually critical care and who are dying, especially at the extremes of [older] age," says Dr. Parker Hudson, an epidemiologist at University of Texas in Austin's Dell Medical School.

People who are over 60 and who have other health problems are more at risk of severe illness and hospitalization — for both COVID-19 and flu."

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...irus-and-the-flu-are-alike-and-different

Look, this is a serious problem, but the fear mongering is ridiculous. Do the math. Numbers do not lie. Yes, they can be manipulated as we are seeing in the press, but if you just take flat facts about death rates, severe and critical, and infection rates, it’s not nearly as bad as it’s being made out to be. Still serious and common sense stuff is smart. Bring the world to its knees though?

Good observation Mark. I believe most of the cases on the world clock are so new they have not yet gone critical, so I'd expect that ratio to shift as time goes on. (Hopefully it doesn't).

No offense good sir, but your doing the math incorrectly. Not trying to fear monger here at all. Agree it's very serious. 1/12000 are dead right now, but people are still dying in mass there. So that ratio is going to get lower and lower as time goes on until the last death occurs. Are you arguing no more people are going to die in Italy?

We’re in agreement