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Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Chug-bug-bang1] #13482802 03/22/20 04:46 PM
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Generally speaking it makes perfectly good sense that it will spread exponentially. When 2 people have it, they expose twice as many as 1 person did, assuming everything else stays the same. But if you put best practices in effect that will limit contact, that will change the dynamic for sure.

Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Chug-bug-bang1] #13482804 03/22/20 04:46 PM
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Oh and on a side note,why is it so hard to find websites that are posting the death counts in the US? I've seen everything from 225-325, they're all over the map. Coincidence? I don't think so.

Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Chug-bug-bang1] #13482807 03/22/20 04:47 PM
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I still believe the cruise ships have some of the best data to use for now.

1000s of people all in the same controlled area

Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: lanman71] #13482808 03/22/20 04:47 PM
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Jpurdue Offline
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Originally Posted by lanman71
Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Originally Posted by lanman71

Ya, we're at day 62 in the US (first case was Jan 20th). We passed the population of the Earth up back on day 34.


A couple things to note here:

1. The virus is not doubling every day. It's doubling every 3-4 days right now. Hopefully social distancing slows it further.
2. Exponential growth doesn't usually start with the first case. If there's just one case, it's pretty easy to get that person isolated and then isolate the people they've been in contact with. Exponential growth starts when you get enough people with the virus that it becomes impossible to know who else has been exposed. This is the definition of "community transmission" which essentially means people are getting it in the community from an unknown source. Most regions in the world have now hit this point, but in the US, we really just got there about 1.5-2 weeks ago.


Ok, I'll use your numbers. Doubling every 3-4 days and going for 3 weeks puts us at under 200 cases in the entire US. The math everyone is spewing isn't making sense. That's all I'm saying. What is the magical number to hit the exponential growth rate?

Yes, this is a potentially deadly virus (look at Italy), but what is being said and reported, is not what is actually happening. Nobody has any clue as to the number of infected. All we can do is look at what has happened in other countries that are farther along in this than us. Italy has had almost 5000 deaths out of a population of 60 million. 1/12,0000 people are dying from it. South Korea, 104 deaths out of 51 million or 1/490,000. Which model do we go off of?




We didn't start at a base of 1 when exponential growth took off a few weeks ago. The growth rate is dynamic, given a myriad of factors. Take this chart below with a grain of salt as things are clearly different between the two countries, but it may shed some light on the topic.

[Linked Image]


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

[Linked Image]
Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Chug-bug-bang1] #13482814 03/22/20 04:50 PM
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Still stuns me reputable news sources will call it a "lockdown".

Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Snakeyes711] #13482817 03/22/20 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Snakeyes711
Oh and on a side note,why is it so hard to find website that are posting the death counts in the US? I've seen everything from 225-325, they're all over the map. Coincidence? I don't think so.


This is the one I'm using, it shows 388 US deaths as of right now. It seems to be the most up to date. You are seeing range of different death numbers because many websites have reporting lags. This one is updated every 15 minuets or so. It also posts links below to each death should anyone want to dig in deeper.

A note on the deaths. We have 30,000 cases in the US as of right now. Most of those are newly diagnosed cases in the last week or so. Average time to case resolution is 18 days. (Recovered or dead). I would not expect to see a significant spike in deaths for another 2 weeks or so. (Hopefully it doesn't happen at all).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Last edited by Jpurdue; 03/22/20 04:54 PM.

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Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Jpurdue] #13482831 03/22/20 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Originally Posted by Snakeyes711
Oh and on a side note,why is it so hard to find website that are posting the death counts in the US? I've seen everything from 225-325, they're all over the map. Coincidence? I don't think so.


This is the one I'm using, it shows 388 US deaths as of right now. It seems to be the most up to date. You are seeing range of different death numbers because many websites have reporting lags. This one is updated every 15 minuets or so. It also posts links below to each death should anyone want to dig in deeper.

A note on the deaths. We have 30,000 cases in the US as of right now. Most of those are newly diagnosed cases in the last week or so. Average time to case resolution is 18 days. (Recovered or dead). I would not expect to see a significant spike in deaths for another 2 weeks or so. (Hopefully it doesn't happen at all).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Yeah that's the one I was using but I tried to get confirmation from other websites (ones that are up to date) and the totals are much lower. I don't know if I trust that website you listed anymore.

Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Snakeyes711] #13482841 03/22/20 05:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Snakeyes711
Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Originally Posted by Snakeyes711
Oh and on a side note,why is it so hard to find website that are posting the death counts in the US? I've seen everything from 225-325, they're all over the map. Coincidence? I don't think so.


This is the one I'm using, it shows 388 US deaths as of right now. It seems to be the most up to date. You are seeing range of different death numbers because many websites have reporting lags. This one is updated every 15 minuets or so. It also posts links below to each death should anyone want to dig in deeper.

A note on the deaths. We have 30,000 cases in the US as of right now. Most of those are newly diagnosed cases in the last week or so. Average time to case resolution is 18 days. (Recovered or dead). I would not expect to see a significant spike in deaths for another 2 weeks or so. (Hopefully it doesn't happen at all).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Yeah that's the one I was using but I tried to get confirmation from other websites (ones that are up to date) and the totals are much lower. I don't know if I trust that website you listed anymore.


Like I said, they post the source of all their information on the deaths if you scroll down. I can't personally vouch that it's 100% accurate, but I don't really see any other cites posting their sources like that.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

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Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Jpurdue] #13482843 03/22/20 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Originally Posted by lanman71
Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Originally Posted by lanman71

Ya, we're at day 62 in the US (first case was Jan 20th). We passed the population of the Earth up back on day 34.


A couple things to note here:

1. The virus is not doubling every day. It's doubling every 3-4 days right now. Hopefully social distancing slows it further.
2. Exponential growth doesn't usually start with the first case. If there's just one case, it's pretty easy to get that person isolated and then isolate the people they've been in contact with. Exponential growth starts when you get enough people with the virus that it becomes impossible to know who else has been exposed. This is the definition of "community transmission" which essentially means people are getting it in the community from an unknown source. Most regions in the world have now hit this point, but in the US, we really just got there about 1.5-2 weeks ago.


Ok, I'll use your numbers. Doubling every 3-4 days and going for 3 weeks puts us at under 200 cases in the entire US. The math everyone is spewing isn't making sense. That's all I'm saying. What is the magical number to hit the exponential growth rate?

Yes, this is a potentially deadly virus (look at Italy), but what is being said and reported, is not what is actually happening. Nobody has any clue as to the number of infected. All we can do is look at what has happened in other countries that are farther along in this than us. Italy has had almost 5000 deaths out of a population of 60 million. 1/12,0000 people are dying from it. South Korea, 104 deaths out of 51 million or 1/490,000. Which model do we go off of?




We didn't start at a base of 1 when exponential growth took off a few weeks ago. The growth rate is dynamic, given a myriad of factors. Take this chart below with a grain of salt as things are clearly different between the two countries, but it may shed some light on the topic.

[Linked Image]


This is a helpful chart. It shows exponential growth very well. Thanks for sharing.

It would be even more helpful to see this chart displayed on a per-capital basis as well. To me, this seems like a better measurement to compare the various countries. I continue to scratch my head and wonder why we are not seeing per-capita data...

Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Chug-bug-bang1] #13482848 03/22/20 05:13 PM
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The list of celebrities and sports figures who have tested positive for the virus is getting really long and none of them seem to be on their death bed. What's up with that? I'm starting to think they just want the publicity it brings.

Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Chug-bug-bang1] #13482852 03/22/20 05:14 PM
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Per captia data is shown at the country level in the link I posted above. Unfortunately it is not trended over time. Not sure if I've seen that data yet.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

[Linked Image]
Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Jpurdue] #13482866 03/22/20 05:25 PM
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Mike@972 Offline
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Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Per captia data is shown at the country level in the link I posted above. Unfortunately it is not trended over time. Not sure if I've seen that data yet.


Thanks for pointing me there. I was able to find it. Thank you!

Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Chug-bug-bang1] #13482903 03/22/20 05:59 PM
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Holy smokes. 14,000 new cases in the US so far today. 12,000 in New York. It could get real ugly real quick there.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

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Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Jpurdue] #13482905 03/22/20 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Holy smokes. 14,000 new cases in the US so far today. 12,000 in New York. It could get real ugly real quick there.



How do you differentiate who has new onset and who is farther along?...the thing that seems to stay constant is that the critical/serious cases numbers are staying low and the death rate is falling.

Here is a great read on why using Italy as the comparitive to the US might not be accurate.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

Re: Fake news or propaganda or the stories are real [Re: Jpurdue] #13482907 03/22/20 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Holy smokes. 14,000 new cases in the US so far today. 12,000 in New York. It could get real ugly real quick there.



The more tests, the more cases.


Joe Biden is a threat to our Constitutional Republic.
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