My odds of catching a stump are 99.9%

Regression models with exponential smoothing make my head hurt!

So pretty much.... be on the higher end of the curve by fishing in the right place, at the right time, with the right equipment. Got it!

Thanks Josh.

P.S. Ordered your book and I'm looking forward to it.

Haha, I love that clip. To be clear I believe one can improve the chances to nearly 100% given the proper tutelage, motivation, time, and or money. Any way you spin it though these are special fish most folks just don't stumble across regularly. I've said it before, but hats off to all the folks who have verified DD's under the belt. Odds are most of them "earned" those fish.

For someone who see's this and wants to improve their chances, I would think time on the water would be the #1 factor in improving the percentage. Change that 16 outings a year to a couple of hundred outings a year. Especially on the same lake. You will learn where they are. A bass fisherman who has a house on a big bass lake like I did would have a much higher likelihood of catching DD's than someone who gets on the water a handful of times a year.

I fished once last year and caught a 12.

Interesting information!! However I will tell myself I have a 100% chance every time I cast!

Also to be clear I myself do not yet have one. I'm trying like crazy though! These stats make me feel a little better about just how hard it is!

What are the odds on catching a rod and reel? I've caught 5 in the last couple years. No DD'S though.

First the right time and place has to happen. Then most of us will have the first DD on the line and not be ready for a fish like that and will not land it. It will wrap up break off... Then if you manage one over eight your going to take a pic and lie.. So the number needs to go down. Thanks for your effort on this.

I'm in the .07%! yeehaw!

With a lot of skill and a little bit of luck, a lot of luck and a little bit of skill, whether on the water 1 hour a year or 1,000 hours a year, it is all a matter of being in the right place at the right time. Although intriguing, using statistics to place a percentage odds on anything to do with fishing is like predicting the weather ten years out.

It's for this reason that going after big fish continually attracts so many anglers. There is always just a bit of mystery mixed in there knowing that big fish could be down there. Adds to the excitement when you feel that thump.

Interesting. This reminds me of the stats classes I took in undergrad and grad school.

Low odds for sure but I'm glad to be part of the 0.07%.

I humble disagree whole heartedly. With this post I didn't try to predict anything, I only stated the odds of an event happening. This is much more like stating powerball odds than predicting the weather in your example. I know the odds of catching a 10lb on your next cast are 1 in 85,000 the same way I know the odds of winning the powerball are 1 in 292 million. Statistics doesn't tell us who will catch the fish or who will win the jackpot, but it does give us an idea of the over all odds.

I also disagree on the point about using statistics to make meaningful predictions about fishing. In 15 minutes someone who knew absolutely nothing about fishing could download the ShareLunker data, run the statistics and correctly determine they are far more likely to catch a big fish in March than they are in December. This is a simplistic example, but it demonstrates the point.

I do agree statistics doesn't put fish on the end of your rod, but I do believe it can give you an edge.

Best odds....spend 16 days during peak of spawn on fork. Don't stop until you find a 10+. Pretty simple