Gibby, thanks for posting that "Example of Current Terms Available" breakdown. I think that will help anyone in the market.

As for my comments about the upcoming crash, here are a few YouTube videos on the subject. I made the mistake of watching one months ago and with all YouTube's algorithm spyware, my feed is now full of them...LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq_6RKHJIIA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05wZv2k5cUo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvwE1Kn5Jn8

Fed isn't done raising rates. I doubt we will see much of any drop in 2024. It will take that long for the market to stabilize around these new rates (which was the whole point in raising them).

All that means for me as an investor is I think 2024 will offer better buying opportunities than we have right now. Prices and rates are still too high.

There are also some major factors at play in housing that the general public isn't paying much attention to. The whole "subject to" movement created by Pace Morby and largely championed by amateur investors that have no capital and no experience is a new house of cards that will likely topple at some point. We're already seeing new defaults by these buyers that have no clue what they're doing. Pace did a great job selling books....not such a great job in ethically advancing REI. When this does hit the fan, there will be an associated price drop due to excess supply.

Investors are also still suffering from FOMO after the massive increases over the last few years. People are overpaying with the anticipation of future appreciation and willing to bankrupt themselves if they're wrong. That's fine, but it's not responsible investment and it's driving the market artificially high.

At some point these two factors will pull things back down a bit. Not sure exactly when.

All that said if you can find a deal right now, it's a good time to buy and then refi in 3-4 years when rates are lower. You just need to be able to survive the 3-4 years until then.

Gibby - I always read your updates and appreciate your posts. Thanks for the info/contributions to the forum.

Nathan, happy to help. I will start adding an example like that every few weeks, in additional to what I am doing. And I welcome feedback, even if it doesn't align with my thoughts and opinions. I honestly didn't expect many, if any to read any of it. But I guess some have trouble sleeping and I imagine this may help.

Patriot07, appreciate you reading and your feedback and thoughts as well. The market will be a ride through the elections, that we can all agree one, one way or another. I do agree that now is a good time to buy as well, not just to promote my business and what I do. I believe now is a good time, because I 100% believe that home values will be higher in a couple years, then they are now, and you can refi that rate when rates fall.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher


Mortgage rates crept higher last week as markets reacted to Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying Thursday that he and other Fed officials remain committed to bringing inflation down to 2% and would not hesitate to raise policy rates further as needed to do so.

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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates may be volatile and could move higher


This week brings inflation data and retail sales data which both will have an effect on mortgage rates for the week. If data comes in favorably, it could help rates drop a bit, however the current outlook shows that inflation could come in higher than expected and pressure mortgage rates higher.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: There are concerns that consumer inflation readings on Tuesday could come in higher than expected due to a change in how health care costs are accounted for, which would cause markets to react in a way that could push mortgage rates higher. Wednesday brings wholesale inflation data, although this is generally less of a market mover. Also, if retail sales data on Wednesday shows a strong economy, it could increase concerns about a possible Fed rate hike to come in December, which would pressure mortgage rates higher.

Also, here is a video I made this morning to explain a 2-1 Buydown. Seeing a lot of these lately and getting a lot of questions about them. Hope this is helpful to some.

https://youtu.be/XbnSjkVRNAQ

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved lower -


Better than expected consumer and wholesale inflation data as well as a drop in retail sales for the first time in seven months helped mortgage rates improve for the week. Rates now reflecting a belief that the Fed is done hiking rates, and will begin cuts sometime in early 2024 as the economy slows down and the labor market softens.

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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates likely to hold steady -


This holiday shortened week is likely to see mortgage rates remain relatively unchanged, although we may see some movement from day-to-day. Markets and lenders will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and markets will close early on Friday. If we do see rates move this week it will be more due to the holiday and low trading volume in markets than a shift in the outlook, and we should see a return to normal next week.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: There are only a couple of small reports this week that are unlikely to cause too much of a stir for mortgage rates.
• Thanksgiving: This is usually a quiet week around the holiday, as most traders take off after Wednesday morning's data for a long weekend.


Happy Thanksgiving, TFF~

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates remain steady


As was expected, rates were basically unchanged last week when markets slowed down over the Thanksgiving holiday. After reaching the highest rates in decades in October, rates have fallen in November on expectations that the Fed is done raising rates.
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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could improve slightly


This week it is likely to see rates once again remain relatively unchanged or improve slightly, depending on how some of the economic data comes in for the week including the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. However, it is next week's labor market data and the following week's inflation data and Fed meeting that hold the most potential for rates to improve through the middle of December.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: This week includes consumer confidence data, a revision of the 3rd quarter GDP, and the PCE inflation report along with lots of housing data. Signs of a slowing economy could help rates hold steady, while signs of economic strength could pressure rates to creep slightly higher.
• The Fed: Markets believe the Fed is done raising rates, and are looking for signs of when the Fed will begin to actually cut rates in 2024.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates improved -


Mortgage rates continued to slowly improve from October's highest rates seen in decades, reacting to markets' now speculating that the Fed may begin cutting policy rates as soon as March after previous expectations of cuts starting in June.


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could improve more -

Although rate improvements will lose steam eventually, the next couple of weeks could see rates move even a bit lower from here. This week we get a lot of labor market data, which could improve mortgage rates if traders find any weakness in the jobs data. Next week we get inflation data and the Fed meeting.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: Every day after Monday brings some kind of labor market report. Tuesday is the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, Wednesday is ADP private payrolls, Thursday is unemployment claims, and Friday brings the biggest report with new job creations, wage increases, and unemployment numbers.
• The Fed: It was Fed members' comments last week that helped push mortgage rates lower, but Fed members are now on a media blackout until the Fed meeting next week. As markets increase the belief that the Fed will cut rates sooner in 2024, rates will improve.


With several weeks in a row of improvement, I am now quoting people in the 6's in some cases. It's a case by case basis depending on type of loan, loan size, credit score, LTV, etc, but the improvement we have seen in the last several weeks has been pretty significant.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates unchanged -


Mortgage rates varied a bit day-to-day last week, but ultimately ended the week basically unchanged. The labor market data showed some softening with less job openings than forecast, but also showed strength with more new jobs created than expected and unemployment falling.

________________________________________


This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates will be volatile -


This week brings new inflation data and the Fed meeting, the combination of which will set the tone for mortgage rates through the rest of the year. This week is a good week to stay in close contact with your mortgage professional.


What's affecting rates this week:



• Inflation data: Consumer inflation comes out Tuesday morning, with wholesale inflation released on Wednesday. If inflation improves more than expected it would help mortgage rates fall further, but the opposite is true if we see inflation data that fails to impress markets.
• The Fed: The Fed meets this week, and is unlikely to raise its policy rate. However, markets will be looking for updates to the Fed's rate forecast and looking for signs that the Fed is open to cutting rates sooner in 2024. Fed Chair Powell's press conference Wednesday afternoon will likely cause volatility in mortgage rates.

In addition to the above weekly rate update, I will add the same scenario I did last month, with updated rates for today.


Example of Current Terms Available:

For this example, I am assuming a purchase price of $400K, 20% down and a loan amount of $320K. I am also assuming a 750 credit score.

30yr fixed is 6.875% paying 1 point. ( 7.102% APR) Putting the monthly P&I at $2102.



VA 100% financing at $400K with that same credit score on a 30yr mortgage would be 6.125% paying 1 point. (6.523% APR) Making the P&I payment $2483.

Neither of the above payments include taxes and insurance.


As you can see if you compare this to the above a month ago, rates have come down pretty significantly. This week will be very telling. Will this downward trend continue? Will date show improvement in inflation? That will drive rates down further. Will the Fed's language Wednesday afternoon indicate possibly cutting rates sooner rather than later? That will also improve rates. We will see!

Here is a 3 min video I made covering the below topics

Rates Are Down - Why Now Is The Perfect Time - Rate Renegotiations - Brokers vs Banks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeo1IwBLlSk

Awesome thread Gibby!

Appreciate that! Glad to know at least somebody finds it useful.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates improved -


Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels in months last week, because the Fed signaled it is likely done raising rates and will probably cut rates in 2024. Although the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, Fed rate cuts will contribute to lower rates across the board, including mortgage rates.

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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may creep higher -


When rates move significantly lower like we saw last week, we often see some give back in the following days. Also, the current lower mortgage rates reflect a belief that the Fed will cut rates six times next year, starting as soon as March. Fed officials are trying to convince markets that cuts are not likely to begin that soon and that the Fed is forecasting it will only cut rates three times next year.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: Mortgage rates may be influenced this week by the final 3rd qtr GDP reading on Thursday, as well as the PCE inflation data on Friday. Stronger economic data may pressure rates slightly higher.
• Holidays: Traders tend to take the end of year off, resulting in less trading volume that contributes to market volatility that can cause day-to-day and intraday swings in mortgage rates. Markets will be closed for Christmas.

A few days late on this for this week. Lots of family gatherings over the last couple days for Christmas, but back in the saddle now.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates unchanged -

Mortgage rates were basically unchanged last week, as mortgage rates continued to reflect markets' belief that not only is the Fed done hiking rates, but will start cutting rates in March. Friday's PCE inflation report came in even lower than expected, supporting the idea that the Fed will be able to reduce rates as inflation cools.

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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates should be unchanged -


Traders generally take off the last couple of weeks of the year around the holidays, and mortgage rates tend to hold steady during that time. There is little risk of seeing rates move higher from here this week, although it is also unlikely we see any kind of significant improvement.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: There is no important economic data this week, and nothing that should pressure rates to move from here. Markets were closed on Monday for Christmas, and will be closed early Friday and closed on day on Monday for New Years.
• The Fed: Mortgage rates will hold these lower levels for as long as markets believe rate cuts will start as soon as March. If that belief reverses we could see rates creep higher, but that is not going to happen this week.