Will aim to add to this each Monday. I'm simply going to share what I send each week to my Realtor partners and clients that are currently shopping. Below is what I sent Monday.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher

Mortgage rates continued higher last week, as the Fed signaled that it would likely raise its policy rate one more time in 2023 and hold that rate higher for longer into 2024.


This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates could continue higher


Mortgage rates are likely to continue higher this week as markets digest the Fed's message that it will continue to be aggressive in fighting inflation by raising rates and holding them longer. Since the Fed's rate influences all rates out there, from car loans to credit cards to mortgage rates, it makes it unlikely we will see mortgage rates move lower anytime soon.


What's affecting rates this week:



• Oil prices: Higher oil prices along with supply scarcity will likely drive up the price of fuel at the pump, which is inflationary and not good for mortgage rates.
• Global bond prices: Increases in bond yields in Europe will contribute to higher bond yields here in the U.S., which pressures mortgage bond pricing and pushes mortgage rates higher.
• Fed speakers: Fed members will continue speaking about the need to be aggressive fighting inflation, which means another future rate hike and holding higher rates for a longer period of time in 2024.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher

Despite improving towards the end of the week, mortgage rates still ended the week higher as rates peaked on Wednesday before falling slightly. The last minute deal over the weekend to avoid a government shutdown may push rates higher this week.



________________________________________



This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates could continue higher


Mortgage rates continue to reach new highs, as do many consumer rates including car loan rates and credit card rates. It is unlikely we will see mortgage rates fall much from here in the near future, and are more likely to see rates creep higher until we see signs that the economy is slowing down and inflation continues to fall.



What's affecting rates this week:


• Labor Market: Tuesday brings data on job openings and turnovers, Wednesday brings private payroll data, Thursday brings unemployment claims, and Friday brings reports for new jobs created along with unemployment and wage growth numbers. Unless we see clear signs that the labor market is softening, it is unlikely the jobs data will help rates much.
• Fed speakers: Fed members continue to spread the message that the Fed will likely need to raise its rate at least one more time this year, pressuring mortgage rates higher.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher


Data last week showed the labor market was much stronger than forecast, with more new jobs created and more job openings than was expected. Along with data that shows the economy remains resilient, this data makes it more likely the Fed will need to continue to raise its rate and hold it higher for a longer period of time to fight inflation. Mortgage rates moved higher on the week due to the news.

________________________________________

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates could improve

Although it is unlikely mortgage rates will make any big moves lower, this week brings the best chance of seeing improvement or at least a stop to the recent jump in mortgage rates if data shows signs of cooling inflation.

What's affecting rates this week:

• Markets closed: Markets are closed on Monday, so Tuesday could see mortgage rates make bigger moves than normal.
• Economic data: Wholesale inflation data comes out on Wednesday followed by consumer inflation data on Thursday. Signs of cooling inflation will help stabilize mortgage rates, however if the data shows inflation is starting to increase again, we could see mortgage rates move higher on the news.
• The Fed: Minutes will be released on Wednesday from last month's Fed meeting.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates improved


For the first time in weeks we saw mortgage rates improve, despite inflation readings that came in at expectations or slightly higher than was expected.


________________________________________


This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates may worsen


This week we may see rates lose some ground, giving back some of last week's improvements. We have likely seen mortgage rates peak and hit their worst levels, but we could revisit those levels over the coming weeks before falling again. Rates are likely to move up and down within a small window as we head into the Fed meeting at the end of the month, rather than move significantly higher or lower from here.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: There are few reports this week, but Tuesday's retail sales data has the most chance of affecting rates. A strong reading which points to a resilient economy could pressure rates early in the week.
• Fed speakers: Fed members will be on a blackout period starting on Saturday, ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting, but this week there will be lots of Fed members out speaking which could impact mortgage rates. A message that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer could pressure rates slightly higher from here.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher


Mortgage rates last week moved quite a bit higher, proving the idea that we've seen mortgage rates peak was still a bit premature. Rates were pushed higher when retail sales numbers came in stronger than expected, and when Fed officials made comments that supported the idea that the Fed will keep rates higher in 2024 than was previously expected.



________________________________________



This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates may continue higher


It is unlikely we see rates improve this week, despite seeing how much they have moved higher recently. It is more likely that we see mortgage rates continue to creep a bit higher, especially if we see the 10yr Treasury yield break above 5% and hold there.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: This week includes Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, as well as another inflation report on Friday. It is unlikely that this data will help rates improve though.
• 10yr Treasury yield: Although mortgage rates are not directly controlled by the 10yr yield, they are influenced by it. Increased supply of Treasuries have pushed yields higher, with the 10yr rate crossing 5% for the first time in 16 years. It is unlikely for bond yields to fall anytime soon, instead pressuring rates higher.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher last week, helped along with strong economic data and high bond yields.

________________________________________

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates will be volatile


This week has many events that will affect mortgage rates, including a full calendar of economic data, multiple readings on the labor market and unemployment, a Fed meeting and press conference, and a widely anticipated borrowing report from the Treasury. Depending on how this week plays out, we could see rates move either higher or lower.

What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: Nothing Monday, but then a full week of economic and labor market data that will likely affect mortgage rates this week. Signs of a still strong economy and labor market could push mortgage rates higher, while signs of potential weakening could
help rates improve.
• Treasury borrowing: Markets are anticipating the quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday, which will show how much the debt the Treasury plans on issuing over the next three months.
• Fed meeting: Wednesday afternoon brings the Fed's policy statement, where it is expected to leave rates alone, and Fed Chair Powell's press conference which always causes market movement.

Hey Gibby, your post would be more interesting if you put up the actual rates for each week. Or a list of top 10 best rates for the week. Just my 2 cents.

i'll add my 2 cents to yours and agree. .Any reason you cant give us thye numbers??

Ditto here... A sliding scale would be nice. Example....Today, a 30 year rate with perfect credit is X % and the same perfect credit 15 year rate is Y %. If you have horrible credit you can expect to pay in the neighborhood of Z %

Most people know, or should know their own approximate credit rating.

We all know why the rates are ridiculously high and the housing market and economy is crashing. That is unless you have been hiding under a rock since the 2020 scam-election.

In my humble opinion, anyone contemplating purchasing a home now, better be doing it because they have no other workable alternative.....Company forced transfer, current house burnt to the ground, or was hit by a tornado. If the 8% rates don't get you, the 50% depreciated home value in two years will.... lol GOOD LUCK

Ain't gonna do it. I watch the Financial Network f(CNBC) for the Ballpark Figure. Probably varies by Institution's.

Today,,,

30 year----7.5%

15 year--- 7.05%

Truly appreciate the feedback here. The reason I hesitate to post actual rates is, all the rules and laws around posting rates.

For example, if I post that today's 30yr rate is X, I have to also post the APR, credit score assumed, loan amount assumed, Loan-to-Value, cost of that rate, etc...

The CFPB has added a lot of guidelines around this over the last several years. So, I can do that, but my thought was, a general idea on how the market is moving would hopefully be helpful to some and anybody that wanted to take a deeper dive and get more specific would reach out to me.

All that said, I will post a scenario like you guys have asked for above here shortly.

Example of Current Terms Available:

For this example, I am assuming a purchase price of $400K, 20% down and a loan amount of $320K. I am also assuming a 750 credit score.

30yr fixed is 7.5% paying 1 point. ( 7.750% APR) Putting the monthly P&I at $2237.

15yr fixed swings wide from lender to lender. There really isn't a secondary market for that loan and they really just aren't being originated right now.

VA 100% financing at $400K with that same credit score on a 30yr mortgage would be 6.75% paying 1 point. (7.468% APR) Making the P&I payment $2753.

Neither of the above payments include taxes and insurance.


Hope this is helpful and gives a better idea of where things are right now. Let me know if I can answer any questions.

As for some of the comments above, specifically Nathan's with regard to depreciation, I wholeheartedly disagree. There is just no data to support that, while in fact there is countless data to support the opposite. Even with the jump in rates, home values have stayed steady. The rapid climb stopped, and in some markets you are seeing some price reductions on homes listed, but values as a whole are holding and rates have been on the rise for over three years now. If home values haven't plummeted with the rate environment by now, what's to suggest they still will? The real-estate market has proven it's stability and strength already. Could values still come down in some markets? Sure. But when you look at the data and listed to the Fed, there is a much higher probability that home values will be higher in 2 years, not lower.

See above for specifics around today's rates -

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved lower


Mortgage rates dropped last week, helped by markets reacting to multiple reports. Economic data for the most part came in on the cool side, and less new jobs were created last month than was expected. The Treasury reported it will issue less new debt than was forecast, concerns of which have driven up rates recently. The Fed meeting also left markets speculating that the Fed is done raising rates and will need to cut sooner in 2024. All of this together helped mortgage rates move lower.

________________________________________

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates may creep higher


This week there is little in the way of relevant economic data to affect mortgage rates, and it is unlikely we see rates move either much higher or much lower than they start the week. However, after seeing rates move lower last week, we may see them creep back a bit this week.


What's affecting rates this week:

• Fed speakers: Fresh off last week's Fed meeting, lots of Fed officials will be out speaking this week. Markets may react to their comments, which could affect mortgage rates.
• 10yr yield: After testing 5% in October, the 10yr Treasury yield has fallen back. If it starts to move higher, it could take mortgage rates with it.

The people who think the Fed is cutting their rates early next year are delusional. Inflation, particular HOUSING, is still rampant and well above the 2% target. The fact that housing prices have not dropped when interest rates have nearly tripled from 2 years ago is nothing short of amazing. The sheer amount of artificial supply constraints and zoning restrictions on the US housing market is propping up this housing bubble.

The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was at 23 year highs as recently as October 19th. It wasn't much lower by the start of present week. What a difference a few days make, especially the last 3 last week, which resulted in a massive 0.50% drop!

The improvement seen on Wed-Fri is the 3rd biggest in well over a decade. And if we throw out March 2020 (as we often do, due to unprecedented volatility relating to the onset of the pandemic), we're left with only one other similar example back in early November of 2022.

Like the present example, last November's big drop in rates happened only after setting new super-long-term highs. That's an important consideration because it speaks to market positioning and the psychology of momentum. It's no coincidence that we often see positive records just after hitting big negative milestones.

That's not to say the improvement is random or that it is exclusively a reaction to previous rate spikes. The previous rate spikes merely add some "oomph" to the next big drop in rates. Big drops still need justification.

Last November, the justification was a low reading in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that gave investors hope regarding a shift in inflation. Unfortunately, that shift proved to be a head-fake and rates continued lower into February of 2023, it's been up, up, and away since then.

This time around, economic data was a catalyst yet again, but it didn't act alone. The good times began to roll on Wednesday after Treasury announced lower-than-expected auction amounts. Treasury supply has been an increasingly hot topic for rates because supply has increased so much in the past few years. All else being equal, higher supply means higher rates for Treasuries, mortgages, and almost everything else.

Last week's announcement was expected to show MORE supply, but the market expected even higher numbers. In addition, the announcement suggested that Treasury supply would only be going up one more time next quarter. That was received as good news by the bond market which had previously been acting like there was no end in sight.

The rally gained momentum with economic data at 10am and again with the Fed announcement in the afternoon. Thursday was mild by comparison, but kept the trajectory intact with help from slightly higher Jobless Claims data, and especially from traders exiting bets on higher rates.

In the bond market, the simple act of "no longer betting on higher rates" or technically, "short covering," forces a trader to effectively enter a bet on lower rates. In other words, if you'd been betting on higher rates, you'd have to buy bonds to end that bet, and bond buying puts more downward pressure on rates.

With an immense amount of improvement already seen on Wed/Thu, Friday's jobs report was in a unique position to cast a deciding vote on the past 2 days of potential exuberance. If jobs came in higher than forecast, the previous drop in rates would indeed have seemed overly exuberant and we would likely be seeing a decent push back.

As it happened, jobs were lower than forecast (good for rates). Additionally, the unemployment rate ticked up more than expected (good for rates) and the past few months of jobs gains were revised lower (good for rates!).

To be sure, the labor market is still exceptionally strong, but the rate market had been pricing in something even stronger. Friday's jobs numbers increasingly paint a picture of a labor market that is cooling back down to more historically normal levels.

The result of all of the above is the best 3 days for mortgage rates and bonds that we've seen since rates first began to launch higher 3 years ago. Granted, the magnitude of the drop is greatly facilitated by the fact rates were at multi-decade highs in the past few weeks, but we're not complaining.

As welcome as this drop in rates may be, context is important. This victory speaks to things that have already happened. It doesn't necessarily guarantee or even speak to what's to come. Even after this week's big drop, yields are merely back in line with a trend that's been pointing sharply higher since late July.

Gibby, thanks for posting that "Example of Current Terms Available" breakdown. I think that will help anyone in the market.

As for my comments about the upcoming crash, here are a few YouTube videos on the subject. I made the mistake of watching one months ago and with all YouTube's algorithm spyware, my feed is now full of them...LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq_6RKHJIIA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05wZv2k5cUo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvwE1Kn5Jn8

Fed isn't done raising rates. I doubt we will see much of any drop in 2024. It will take that long for the market to stabilize around these new rates (which was the whole point in raising them).

All that means for me as an investor is I think 2024 will offer better buying opportunities than we have right now. Prices and rates are still too high.

There are also some major factors at play in housing that the general public isn't paying much attention to. The whole "subject to" movement created by Pace Morby and largely championed by amateur investors that have no capital and no experience is a new house of cards that will likely topple at some point. We're already seeing new defaults by these buyers that have no clue what they're doing. Pace did a great job selling books....not such a great job in ethically advancing REI. When this does hit the fan, there will be an associated price drop due to excess supply.

Investors are also still suffering from FOMO after the massive increases over the last few years. People are overpaying with the anticipation of future appreciation and willing to bankrupt themselves if they're wrong. That's fine, but it's not responsible investment and it's driving the market artificially high.

At some point these two factors will pull things back down a bit. Not sure exactly when.

All that said if you can find a deal right now, it's a good time to buy and then refi in 3-4 years when rates are lower. You just need to be able to survive the 3-4 years until then.

Gibby - I always read your updates and appreciate your posts. Thanks for the info/contributions to the forum.

Nathan, happy to help. I will start adding an example like that every few weeks, in additional to what I am doing. And I welcome feedback, even if it doesn't align with my thoughts and opinions. I honestly didn't expect many, if any to read any of it. But I guess some have trouble sleeping and I imagine this may help.

Patriot07, appreciate you reading and your feedback and thoughts as well. The market will be a ride through the elections, that we can all agree one, one way or another. I do agree that now is a good time to buy as well, not just to promote my business and what I do. I believe now is a good time, because I 100% believe that home values will be higher in a couple years, then they are now, and you can refi that rate when rates fall.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher


Mortgage rates crept higher last week as markets reacted to Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying Thursday that he and other Fed officials remain committed to bringing inflation down to 2% and would not hesitate to raise policy rates further as needed to do so.

________________________________________

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates may be volatile and could move higher


This week brings inflation data and retail sales data which both will have an effect on mortgage rates for the week. If data comes in favorably, it could help rates drop a bit, however the current outlook shows that inflation could come in higher than expected and pressure mortgage rates higher.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: There are concerns that consumer inflation readings on Tuesday could come in higher than expected due to a change in how health care costs are accounted for, which would cause markets to react in a way that could push mortgage rates higher. Wednesday brings wholesale inflation data, although this is generally less of a market mover. Also, if retail sales data on Wednesday shows a strong economy, it could increase concerns about a possible Fed rate hike to come in December, which would pressure mortgage rates higher.

Also, here is a video I made this morning to explain a 2-1 Buydown. Seeing a lot of these lately and getting a lot of questions about them. Hope this is helpful to some.

https://youtu.be/XbnSjkVRNAQ

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved lower -


Better than expected consumer and wholesale inflation data as well as a drop in retail sales for the first time in seven months helped mortgage rates improve for the week. Rates now reflecting a belief that the Fed is done hiking rates, and will begin cuts sometime in early 2024 as the economy slows down and the labor market softens.

________________________________________


This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates likely to hold steady -


This holiday shortened week is likely to see mortgage rates remain relatively unchanged, although we may see some movement from day-to-day. Markets and lenders will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and markets will close early on Friday. If we do see rates move this week it will be more due to the holiday and low trading volume in markets than a shift in the outlook, and we should see a return to normal next week.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: There are only a couple of small reports this week that are unlikely to cause too much of a stir for mortgage rates.
• Thanksgiving: This is usually a quiet week around the holiday, as most traders take off after Wednesday morning's data for a long weekend.


Happy Thanksgiving, TFF~

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates remain steady


As was expected, rates were basically unchanged last week when markets slowed down over the Thanksgiving holiday. After reaching the highest rates in decades in October, rates have fallen in November on expectations that the Fed is done raising rates.
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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could improve slightly


This week it is likely to see rates once again remain relatively unchanged or improve slightly, depending on how some of the economic data comes in for the week including the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. However, it is next week's labor market data and the following week's inflation data and Fed meeting that hold the most potential for rates to improve through the middle of December.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: This week includes consumer confidence data, a revision of the 3rd quarter GDP, and the PCE inflation report along with lots of housing data. Signs of a slowing economy could help rates hold steady, while signs of economic strength could pressure rates to creep slightly higher.
• The Fed: Markets believe the Fed is done raising rates, and are looking for signs of when the Fed will begin to actually cut rates in 2024.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates improved -


Mortgage rates continued to slowly improve from October's highest rates seen in decades, reacting to markets' now speculating that the Fed may begin cutting policy rates as soon as March after previous expectations of cuts starting in June.


________________________________________


This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could improve more -

Although rate improvements will lose steam eventually, the next couple of weeks could see rates move even a bit lower from here. This week we get a lot of labor market data, which could improve mortgage rates if traders find any weakness in the jobs data. Next week we get inflation data and the Fed meeting.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: Every day after Monday brings some kind of labor market report. Tuesday is the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, Wednesday is ADP private payrolls, Thursday is unemployment claims, and Friday brings the biggest report with new job creations, wage increases, and unemployment numbers.
• The Fed: It was Fed members' comments last week that helped push mortgage rates lower, but Fed members are now on a media blackout until the Fed meeting next week. As markets increase the belief that the Fed will cut rates sooner in 2024, rates will improve.


With several weeks in a row of improvement, I am now quoting people in the 6's in some cases. It's a case by case basis depending on type of loan, loan size, credit score, LTV, etc, but the improvement we have seen in the last several weeks has been pretty significant.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates unchanged -


Mortgage rates varied a bit day-to-day last week, but ultimately ended the week basically unchanged. The labor market data showed some softening with less job openings than forecast, but also showed strength with more new jobs created than expected and unemployment falling.

________________________________________


This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates will be volatile -


This week brings new inflation data and the Fed meeting, the combination of which will set the tone for mortgage rates through the rest of the year. This week is a good week to stay in close contact with your mortgage professional.


What's affecting rates this week:



• Inflation data: Consumer inflation comes out Tuesday morning, with wholesale inflation released on Wednesday. If inflation improves more than expected it would help mortgage rates fall further, but the opposite is true if we see inflation data that fails to impress markets.
• The Fed: The Fed meets this week, and is unlikely to raise its policy rate. However, markets will be looking for updates to the Fed's rate forecast and looking for signs that the Fed is open to cutting rates sooner in 2024. Fed Chair Powell's press conference Wednesday afternoon will likely cause volatility in mortgage rates.

In addition to the above weekly rate update, I will add the same scenario I did last month, with updated rates for today.


Example of Current Terms Available:

For this example, I am assuming a purchase price of $400K, 20% down and a loan amount of $320K. I am also assuming a 750 credit score.

30yr fixed is 6.875% paying 1 point. ( 7.102% APR) Putting the monthly P&I at $2102.



VA 100% financing at $400K with that same credit score on a 30yr mortgage would be 6.125% paying 1 point. (6.523% APR) Making the P&I payment $2483.

Neither of the above payments include taxes and insurance.


As you can see if you compare this to the above a month ago, rates have come down pretty significantly. This week will be very telling. Will this downward trend continue? Will date show improvement in inflation? That will drive rates down further. Will the Fed's language Wednesday afternoon indicate possibly cutting rates sooner rather than later? That will also improve rates. We will see!

Here is a 3 min video I made covering the below topics

Rates Are Down - Why Now Is The Perfect Time - Rate Renegotiations - Brokers vs Banks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeo1IwBLlSk

Awesome thread Gibby!

Appreciate that! Glad to know at least somebody finds it useful.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates improved -


Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels in months last week, because the Fed signaled it is likely done raising rates and will probably cut rates in 2024. Although the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, Fed rate cuts will contribute to lower rates across the board, including mortgage rates.

________________________________________


This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may creep higher -


When rates move significantly lower like we saw last week, we often see some give back in the following days. Also, the current lower mortgage rates reflect a belief that the Fed will cut rates six times next year, starting as soon as March. Fed officials are trying to convince markets that cuts are not likely to begin that soon and that the Fed is forecasting it will only cut rates three times next year.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: Mortgage rates may be influenced this week by the final 3rd qtr GDP reading on Thursday, as well as the PCE inflation data on Friday. Stronger economic data may pressure rates slightly higher.
• Holidays: Traders tend to take the end of year off, resulting in less trading volume that contributes to market volatility that can cause day-to-day and intraday swings in mortgage rates. Markets will be closed for Christmas.

A few days late on this for this week. Lots of family gatherings over the last couple days for Christmas, but back in the saddle now.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates unchanged -

Mortgage rates were basically unchanged last week, as mortgage rates continued to reflect markets' belief that not only is the Fed done hiking rates, but will start cutting rates in March. Friday's PCE inflation report came in even lower than expected, supporting the idea that the Fed will be able to reduce rates as inflation cools.

________________________________________


This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates should be unchanged -


Traders generally take off the last couple of weeks of the year around the holidays, and mortgage rates tend to hold steady during that time. There is little risk of seeing rates move higher from here this week, although it is also unlikely we see any kind of significant improvement.


What's affecting rates this week:


• Economic data: There is no important economic data this week, and nothing that should pressure rates to move from here. Markets were closed on Monday for Christmas, and will be closed early Friday and closed on day on Monday for New Years.
• The Fed: Mortgage rates will hold these lower levels for as long as markets believe rate cuts will start as soon as March. If that belief reverses we could see rates creep higher, but that is not going to happen this week.

𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 👍

Mortgage rates were basically unchanged last week as 2023 came to an end.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗽 👍

Mortgage rates will need help from labor market data to improve this week. Signs of a softening labor market in this week's data would support expectations of future Fed rate cuts, which would help mortgage rates to improve at least a little bit. However, if we instead see signs of labor market strength from the data this week it could cause rates to creep slightly higher, especially on Friday.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:

- Economic data: This week brings multiple reports about the labor market, starting on Wednesday with the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey. Thursday brings the ADP payroll report and unemployment claims, with Friday's new job creation and unemployment numbers being most likely to affect mortgage rates.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates continue to reflect the belief that the Fed will need to cut rates six times in 2024, although Fed officials have been saying it will be less. If markets start to waiver in the belief that the Fed will cut rates dramatically this year to avoid a recession, we could see mortgage rates creep higher.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates slightly higher -


Mortgage rates lost a little bit of ground last week as markets started to doubt the Fed will cut its policy rate at the March Fed meeting. Friday's jobs data also pressured rates a bit higher, showing the labor market remains resilient and making it less urgent for the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the economy.


________________________________________



This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates will move with inflation data -


Mortgage rates are not likely to move much higher or lower from where they start the week if inflation data comes in as expected. However, a report that shows inflation is dropping faster or slower than expected could cause rates to move up or down a bit depending on the news.


What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: Consumer and wholesale inflation reports come out near the end of the week, and will help set the direction of mortgage rates for the next couple of weeks.
• The Fed: Mortgage rates continue to reflect the belief that the Fed will need to cut rates six times in 2024, although Fed officials have been saying it will be less. If markets start to waiver in the belief that the Fed will cut rates dramatically this year to avoid a recession, we could see mortgage rates creep higher.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates slightly lower -


Mortgage rates improved a little bit last week, even though the consumer inflation numbers came in slightly higher than expected. Wholesale inflation was down, but doesn't have as much influence on mortgage rates.


________________________________________



This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may improve -



Mortgage rates could see some more improvement this week if markets continue to bet on Fed rate cuts to start at the March meeting. Despite labor market and economic data that points to the Fed keeping policy rates at current levels, markets believe the Fed will have to start cutting much sooner than it expects if it wants to avoid a recession. Rates are unlikely to move higher unless that belief falters.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: A holiday shortened week brings Wednesday's retail sales data and the Fed's Beige Book on the economy. Not much other data to worry about this week.
• The Fed: Mortgage rates continue to reflect the belief that the Fed will need to cut rates six times in 2024, although Fed officials have been saying it will be less. If markets start to waiver in the belief that the Fed will cut rates dramatically this year to avoid a recession, we could see mortgage rates creep higher.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved higher -


Mortgage rates are heavily influenced right now by speculation of when and how much the Fed will cut its policy rate this year. Last week mortgage rates moved higher as markets started to give up on the idea that the Fed will have to start cutting its rate in March to head off a recession.



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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could creep higher -


Although starting the week off a little bit better than Friday, mortgage rates could move higher this week if we continue to see markets give up on a March Fed rate cut. The likely best case scenario is that rates hold steady, because it is unlikely they will improve much from here this week.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: Thursday brings the preliminary 4th qtr GDP, along with unemployment claims. Friday we get the PCE inflation data, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, which could influence rates to end the week.
• The Fed: Markets have been pricing in a Fed rate cut in March the last few weeks, which helped mortgage rates fall from October highs. However, markets are finally listening to Fed members who say a March cut is unlikely, causing rates to creep up, but there is room for rates to move higher yet.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates slightly higher -


Mortgage rates moved just slightly higher last week, but not by much. Inflation cooled to an almost three-year low, and that is a good sign for future mortgage rates to come back down.



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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could be volatile -


The week will start off quiet and mortgage rates are unlikely to change much until Wednesday, but then the fireworks start when the Fed releases its policy statement and Chair Powell holds his press conference. We also could see more rate movement on Friday when jobs data comes out.



What's affecting rates this week:



• The Fed: The Fed is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at this meeting but markets will be looking for signs about when cuts will begin, especially Wednesday afternoon during Powell's press conference. If traders think Powell is leaving the door open for rate cuts sooner, we could see mortgage rates improve. However, if Powell ruins any hope of cuts starting at the March meeting, mortgage rates may move higher.
• Jobs data: Although there are a few different labor reports during the week, Friday's jobs data will have the most effect on mortgage rates. Labor market weakness will help rates, strength will hurt them.

Rates are in a bit of a free fall again this week, after they jumped up a bit in previous weeks. Now is a good time!

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved higher -


Mortgage rates actually improved last week after the Fed meeting and press conference on Wednesday, but saw the gains disappear when Friday's jobs data came in crushing expectations with almost double the new jobs created than was forecast. Mortgage rates ended the week slightly worse than the previous week.


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates likely to move higher -


This week rates are likely to move higher as markets give up on a March Fed rate cut and start to question if we will even see one at the next meeting in May. Mortgage rates will creep higher if markets believe that the Fed will not cut until later in the year, and the strong economic data and labor market data we've seen the last few weeks makes it unlikely the Fed will need to cut rates to stimulate the economy anytime soon.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: There is no economic data this week that is likely to either push mortgage rates higher or lower.
• Fed speakers: There will be members of the Fed speaking every day this week, sharing their opinion on when the Fed should start cutting rates. Mortgage rates will creep higher if markets believe the Fed will not cut until later in the year.

Here is a quick blog I wrote discussing the potential costly pitfalls of delaying your home purchase amidst rate drop speculations.




Dreaming of a new home? It's an exciting journey, but some potential homebuyers are hitting the pause button, anticipating a drop in mortgage rates and a more favorable buyers market later in the year. However, before you decide to wait it out, let's explore why this might not be the wisest strategy.

* The Temptation to Wait:

It's only natural to want the best possible deal when making a significant investment like buying a home. The lure of lower interest rates and a perceived buyers market can be tempting, leading some to postpone their home purchase plans. After all, who wouldn't want to save a bit more or secure a better deal?

* The Rising Tide of Demand:

While waiting for rates to drop might seem like a savvy move, consider the impact of delayed decisions on the overall market dynamics. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), for every 1% decline in interest rates, approximately 5 million new buyers enter the market. This surge in demand can create a domino effect, putting upward pressure on home values.

* The NAR Statistic: A Game-Changer:

Let's break down the NAR statistic. If rates do drop, and more buyers flood the market, the increased competition can lead to higher home prices. In essence, the very strategy of waiting for a buyers market might contribute to the creation of a sellers market, with increased demand driving prices northward.

* Timing the Market: A Tricky Business:

Attempting to time the real estate market perfectly is a risky game. The housing market is influenced by numerous factors, including economic conditions, employment rates, and unforeseen global events. Predicting the exact moment when rates will hit their lowest or when the market will shift in favor of buyers is challenging, if not impossible.

* The Cost of Waiting:

Beyond the potential financial implications of rising home prices, there's also the opportunity cost of waiting. Each passing day is a missed opportunity to build equity, enjoy the benefits of homeownership, and invest in a property that could appreciate over time.

* Conclusion: Seizing the Opportunity Today:

In the dynamic world of real estate, one thing is certain: change is constant. Rather than trying to time the market, it's often more prudent to focus on your personal financial readiness and the long-term benefits of homeownership. Locking in a mortgage at today's rates might just be the smart move, ensuring you secure a home that aligns with your needs and aspirations.

As the saying goes, "The best time to buy a home was yesterday; the second-best time is today." Don't let speculation about future market conditions keep you from making a decision that could shape your future. Consult with a real estate professional, assess your financial readiness, and consider the broader implications of waiting. The perfect home might be waiting for you now, not later.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved higher -


Mortgage rates crept just slightly higher last week, but didn't move much throughout the week as markets waited for this week's inflation data.


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates will react to inflation data -



This week rates could move either way, depending on how the inflation data comes out. If inflation moves lower, markets will expect the Fed to react by cutting rates sooner this year and that would help mortgage rates move lower this week. However, if the inflation readings don't come in low enough, it could spook markets to listen to the Fed's message that it wants to hold rates longer, and that would push mortgage rates up as much as .25%.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: Tuesday brings the most important consumer inflation data, with retail sales data on Thursday and wholesale inflation on Friday. The inflation data will be affected by new factors used in seasonal adjustments, making it harder than normal to forecast what we may get for readings.
• Fed speakers: There will be more members of the Fed out speaking this week, and depending on how the data comes out they could have more of an effect on mortgage rates for the week.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved higher -


Mortgage rates moved higher again last week, this time due to inflation coming in higher than expected. Inflation is not good for rates, and the report was made worse because it makes it unlikely the Fed will consider cutting rates till at least May and more likely June.


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may creep higher -


This week is likely to see mortgage rates move slightly day-to-day and possibly creep a bit higher by the end of the week. Rates will not drop significantly from here until we see some data showing the labor market and economy is weakening and inflation is falling, and we won't see that data until at least March.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: The minutes from last month's Fed meeting come out on Wednesday along with some economic reports on Thursday. There is nothing on Tuesday or Friday, and markets were closed on Monday.
• The Fed: Mortgage rates are not set by the Fed, but are strongly influenced by Fed actions. Rates were lower when markets were forecasting Fed rate cuts to start in March, and have moved higher as the chances of that happening have grown slim. Speculation now calls for Fed rate cuts to most likely start in June.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates were unchanged -


Mortgage rates crept higher through the week last week, but a strong performance on Friday helped to end the week basically unchanged. Faced with the current rate climate, that's a win for the week.



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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could move higher -


This week there's a lot of economic data that markets will be watching that could push mortgage rates higher. If the economic data points to a strong economy, that means it is less likely the Fed will cut rates anytime soon... and that means mortgage rates will suffer for the week.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: This week has a full calendar, with reports every day as well as Treasury auctions through the week that could influence markets and affect mortgage rates. The biggest reports come out Thursday and Friday.
• Month's end: The underlying markets that set mortgage rates could be affected by traders positioning portfolios for month's end.
• The Fed: Rates hit their recent best levels in December when markets thought the Fed would be forced to cut in March or May to avoid doing damage to the economy, but mortgage rates have moved higher now that markets are speculating the Fed won't cut till June or even July.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates were unchanged -


Similar to last week, mortgage rates moved slightly higher through the middle of the week before dropping back on Thursday and Friday to end the week unchanged.


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could improve but there is risk -


It may be overly optimistic, but we think rates could improve this week with some help from labor market data and the Fed. However, this data could also push rates higher if it comes in showing a stronger labor market and economy. Remember, mortgage rates can only move lower once markets anticipate Fed rate cuts are more likely to come earlier in the year in June or possibly May, which is not the case right now.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: This week is full of labor market data, starting on Wednesday and wrapping up with Friday's big BLS jobs report. Last month's BLS report showed unexpected labor market strength and sent mortgage rates moving higher through February. Hopefully this month we see revisions to last month's data that shows a much softer labor market.
• The Fed: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify in front of Congress this week, as he does twice a year. His comments Wednesday could affect mortgage rates this week.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates improved -



Mortgage rates remained unchanged for much of last week, moving lower Thursday and Friday on economic and labor market data. Although more jobs were created last month than expected, prior months were revised to have less jobs created than originally reported, with higher unemployment and lower wages in February.



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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates will be volatile and could move higher -



This week has a few rate moving reports, with Tuesday's inflation data being the biggest. If you are in process with a mortgage application, you may want to talk with your mortgage pro about locking Monday ahead of this data. There is less risk for loans closing April or later.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Inflation data: Tuesday AM brings the CPI inflation data, and traders anticipate it could come in showing inflation continued to heat up in February. Last month's report showed hotter inflation, and mortgage rates moved higher and didn't fall again for three weeks. Thursday brings wholesale inflation, which has much less effect on rates.
• Other economic data: Thursday and Friday bring other economic reports like consumer sentiment and retail sales that could influence mortgage rates to end the week.


Overall, rates have been falling well. I have been in the low 6's on FHA, USDA & VA loans in most cases, and even into the 5's in some cases. This is all dependent on credit scores, loan amounts and other factors of course. Conventional rates are a bit higher, bt you don't have the different government funding fees they charge.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved higher -


Mortgage rates moved quite a bit higher last week, giving up all of the gains seen earlier in March. Rates moved higher due to hotter inflation and strong economic data that make it much less likely the Fed will need to cut rates anytime soon.



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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates will be volatile and could move higher -



This week has the potential to open the door for rates to move even higher, or to settle back down a bit, depending on how Wednesday's Fed meeting and press conference play out.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Fed meeting: Wednesday at 2pm ET, the Fed is expected to leave policy rates unchanged, but will signal what may come at future meetings in its policy statement.
• Fed rate forecasts: At this meeting, Fed members will make their anonymous forecasts for where policy rates will end this year and the next few years. The last projection was for three Fed rate cuts in 2024, and if that falls to two cuts it could pressure mortgage rates higher.
• Powell press conference: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET Wednesday is likely to cause volatility in mortgage rates, causing lender repricing and setting the direction for rates over the next few weeks.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates improved -


Rates actually improved last week when the Fed continued to project three rate cuts for 2024 and more to come in 2025. The Fed also signaled that it wasn't yet concerned with the recent uptick in inflation and still felt that it would have no need to raise rates further in this tightening cycle, and left its policy rate unchanged.


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may improve -



This week is a holiday shortened week that is unlikely to see rates make any significant moves, but we could see slight improvement. The latest trend is that rates may slowly improve ahead of April's labor and inflation data, as markets start to see a June Fed rate cut as more likely after the latest Fed meeting.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: Although there are some mid tier economic reports that will come out this week, the PCE inflation data comes out on Friday when markets will be closed for Good Friday and we are not likely to see a reaction to that data until Monday. It is unlikely rates move much on this week's data.
• Holiday weekend: Markets close early on Thursday and will be closed on Friday, meaning that most lenders will not change rates after Thursday until next week.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates unchanged -


Rates remained basically unchanged last week, not really moving much day-to-day. There was little economic data to worry about, and it was a holiday week with markets closing early on Thursday and closed Friday


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may improve -



Although rates will likely start the week worse, there are lots of opportunities to see rates improve by the end of the week with help from data showing a weakening labor market which could support the Fed cutting rates sooner, say in June.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: There is at least one report each day this week involving jobs and the labor market, which could cause mortgage rates to move day-to-day. Friday brings the most important data, with the highest chance to move rates. Data showing a weakening labor market will help rates, stronger than expected data will hurt rates.
• The Fed: Mortgage rates won't improve much unless markets believe the Fed will cut rates soon. Right now, Fed officials have said they aren't in a hurry to cut rates until they see clear confirmation that inflation is still moving lower. We need signs of softening labor market and weaker economy to create urgency for the Fed to cut rates.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved higher -


Rates moved slightly higher last week when strong economic and labor data made it less likely the Fed will need to cut rates until later in the year, and will likely cut rates less than the three times that was recently projected at the last Fed meeting.


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may get worse -



Rates are more likely to creep higher this week, especially if the inflation data is disappointing, as markets adjust to the idea that the Fed may hold off on any rate cuts until much later in the year.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: This week brings important inflation data, which is not likely to be too helpful to mortgage rates. Although economists are projecting a small improvement in inflation, it would take a surprisingly low reading to help rates to rally, and that is unlikely to happen.
• The Fed: Markets are starting to bet on only two Fed rate cuts this year as Fed officials continue to say that the strong economy and labor market along with stubborn inflation make it too early to even consider cutting rates. The Fed will only need to consider cutting rates if we see signs of a weakening economy and a softening labor market that needs stimulus.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:

Rates moved higher -


Rates moved quite a bit higher last week when inflation readings came in stronger than expected, showing that inflation increased rather than dropped. Markets reacted to the data by dropping the number of Fed rate cuts forecasted for later this year.



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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates may get worse -



Rates are likely to creep higher this week as markets adjust to expectations that the Fed may cut rates only twice or even once this year. Strong economic and labor data along with increasing inflation have shelved the idea that any rate cuts will happen before September at the earliest.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Fed speakers: Lots of Fed officials will be out speaking this week, likely sharing the message that the Fed does not need to cut rates yet.
• The Fed: Markets are now expecting only two or even one Fed rate cut this year as Fed officials continue to say that the strong economy and labor market along with stubborn inflation make it too early to even consider cutting rates. Mortgage rates won't move lower unless/until expectations grow again that the Fed will have to cut rates.
• Economic data: Not a lot of data this week, and what we've seen already was bad for mortgage rates.

And the RATES?????

@glenls People just keep on spending, despite the price. Crazy market right now.