Will lumber prices drop?

Do you think lumber prices will fall in the near future? I am wanting to build a house, Just not wanting to add 30% to it.

Yeah I am also wanting to build a new fence... but I am needing to see prices go down a bit.

Its like stupid expensive.

God I hope so. We need to replace out fence but its absurd how expensive it is now,

Guess I won’t be doing the deck anytime soon

Ya, my fence needs replacing as well and I'm having to hold off. Bugs the hell out of me driving home and seeing it like it is. Need the prices to drop soon.

I plan on doing so many projects when the economy crashes and everything gets cheap again.

Same here. Need my back fence replaced. I guessed it would be about 5K. Got a quote back from a guy for 12K due to lumber prices. I bought 400 screws and 6 2x4s and patched it up hoping it holds for another year or so.

I've been buying one fence slat per pay check. 8 1/2 more years and I'll be able to replace my fence.

I have a friend that works in an industry associated with lumber and it is supposed to be going down...soon.

They are surprised it hasn't already so we are holding out on buying fencing and a few other things until it does.

I want to know why the lumber prices are so high with the timber prices being at an all time low right now.

This would be a guess. Mill capacity is weak due to past years and only mediocre demand. Meanwhile with record low interest rates building construction is very high.

The result is high demand and low supply. It's just the market. Metals are very high right now too especially copper (wiring).

January

so to be clear, all of us need a new fence?

Good fences make good neighbors.

I think current lumber prices are a new normal.

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Lumber is a commodity and prices are a function of supply and demand. When I worked for a large manufactured housing company we had a consignment program for all of our lumber and I was responsible for managing it. It was a cost + agreement. To keep our supplier honest I tracked prices weekly and used a buddy in the truss business to give me his prices. I built models to track pricing impacts on our homes and recommend surcharges. I saw all sorts or reasons for price increases. Spotted owls, earthquakes, and Canadian tariffs. Prices back then always went up in the spring and started dropping in late summer. In addition to supply and demand issues right now we also have tariffs on Canadien lumber. Transportation costs will also affect prices. Lumber out of Canada cost more to ship then the cost of the product at one time.

The futures market is showing a decline in the August-Sept time frame....Building a house on Texoma and watching closely.

This until something drastic with the economy happens to slow the pace of single family home building.

Solid plan. Rome wasn't built in a day.

Just left a meeting about lumber prices about 2 hours ago. NO it will not be dropping anytime soon if at all.

Once all the money printing kicks in and inflation hits big time......................lumber prices and everything else will hit the roof. It may go down short term, but long terms nothing in this country will be the same. We will be a first world Zimbabwe in the next couple of years and these idiot will try to print more money to correct inflation. Trust me, its comming one of these days.

I can't imagine that would happen.

The 4 major mills are controlling the pricing.

That Trump guy was on to something

24x55 deck we did for superduty on THF. That’s a lot of wood!

And the hurricanes that rolled through SW Louisiana. It is a combination of things. Hopefully it comes down.

Add me to the fence brigade. Going to have to bite the bullet and make it happen. Can't stand looking at a "needs major repair" fence any longer.

We are in the middle of building project and it was explained to me that lumber prices are due to a mix of west coast fires last year, covid (mills not working all shifts) and demand. Same for steel. $96 for a sheet of 3/4 plywood is crazy.

Nope. Mine is only 4 months old now. If you can swing it, I recommend a sliding gate to fully enclose the back yard. Used to be, I had to make sure the garage door was closed when mowing the front yard, or if I went into the front yard to work. Alley cruzers would help themselves to things in your garage if the door was open. Blackwell Fencing has done most of the homes around us. They do quality work here in the Liquor City area.

we get a double butt load of wood from canada, a lot of our domestic is oregon/washington/southern states. my best guess is shortage of workers, cos. shut due to state bs mandating more bs and way too many people wanting new homes instead of a rehab.

we just today got quoted 140.00 sf for a 500 sf apt here (I may be moving in the future. lol). told the owner if they pay that much I will quit and build it for them. stupid contractor, one exterior wall is already built.

To be clear. Yes I do. Supposed to be going in with the neighbors in a couple weeks. We shall see...

By the way the decking material for that big deck went up a $1000 from the time I wrote the proposal until the time it was accepted and we ordered materials. Ridiculous

LOL..yes they do

Not anytime soon!

Tell me about it. Just dropped a house package $42,000 over budget. We will be building this one for free. And we really don't need the practice.

With the shortages we are starting to see there is no way prices are coming down for at least a year.

or more, went thru this with cedar and the dam spotted owl, mahogany was cheaper than redwood for decks (colorado, everyone wanted dam redwood).

our full pkg was quoted and substantial down payment made before we ever started one, got locked in on lumber before we started dirt.

So maybe I should go ahead and buy that portable sawmill.

It will have to come down, always has before. I need a fence for a house we built a few months ago, wife’s bugging the hell out of me for a fence, I’m not giving those greedy mofo’s a dime right now.

Haha isn’t that the truth! That kind of takes some of the joy out of it doing it for free!