Lumber - Any guys here in the business

I am building a house on Texoma and we're just starting the basement and slab for the garage. I know lumber has went way up the last year and looking for any TFFers in the business to run some questions by.

-When will lumber prices stabilize and come back down to reality - I have an unlimited time frame so can wait out the market
-From what I have read, the futures market looks to be coming down in May-June but that is obviously subject to change - just looking for market intelligence to make the right timing decision
-I am getting the floor trusses from Wood truss but need the rest of the lumber package quoted - now and future - Please PM me if you are in the biz.

We are starting the process, well, weve been in the process since last fall. I've been keeping a pretty good eye on it, talking to multiple builders and stuff. Basically here's what the consensus is, if you want osb to be back to 7 or 8 bucks your dreaming. Prices will drop a little mid year but not back to normal.
Just my $.02, prices wont get back to pre covid numbers until interest rates rise and sales and construction come to a halt. That's a guessing game when that will happen

buy some GME stock and cash it in a 1k per share and don't worry about the price of wood. it won't matter...…..

PM sent

great synopsis

No disrespect, but this thread would have been better if the word “Wood” had been used in the title.

Its a little ridiculous. Standing timber prices have been low for the past several years. I am convinced that timber prices are very similar to oil prices. Neither have very much to do with supply and demand. They blame covid for slow production at the mills, but most mills are automated these days.

I posted this on another lumber pricing thread. I had a timber cruise back in December on about 10 acres of tall, mature pine. The tall meant that the tops (anything< 9" butts) would make chip wood too. So saw logs ( for making stick lumber) and chip wood were my raw product. He said these logs would bring about $22/ton. That's crazy considering the cost of the finished products now. In 2004 my neighbor cut just the saw logs off of about 45 acres of his property and by the end of the cut was getting $90/ton (in 2004 dollars).

Needless to say I told the guy cruising my timber that I'd let the bugs eat it before allowing crews in here to tear up the place at that kind of return.

Hardwood logs are at $45/ton right now.

It's just wonderful right now. Not only has the lumber doubled in price in the last year. It is taking 4-5 weeks to get the lumber delivered right now. And that's for the first drop. I'm waiting a couple of weeks right now for my second drop. I'm being told to expect this to continue into the next year.

y'all should have been around for the spotted owl debacle of 1994, same thing but on redwood.

I ended up doing 4 houses in mahogany decks instead of redwood and it was about 33% less expensive at the time.
the market is what the producers tell you it is, as stated most mills are automated now and only take about 25 - 30 folks to run. plywood mills are a little more complicated but framing lumber is a no brainer button pushing job now.

We are just about finished with some thinning on some Arkansas property. Did not want to sell in this market, but the timber on the property had not been cut for over 60 years (FIL could not bring himself to cut any trees) and it really needed to be thinned. For the pine, getting $19 for tops, $30 for grade, $50 - $57 for poles depending on height. Oak priced at $40, unless white oak for staves at $100 (property is close to a stave mill). Pulp is virtually worthless.

If it were me, I’d write off ‘21 all together.