Mortality rate Covid-19 ?

I keep hearing the mortality is aprox. 5%. Is this based on the number of confirmed cases vs deaths ? It seems this is grossly inaccurate because a large number of the infected have recovered and were never diagnosed as having Covid-19. Am I wrong ?

The numbers are inflated. If you die and test positive for the virus, you are counted in the numbers even if you weren't sick with the virus at the time.

Using the parameters you added there is no way we would ever get a true rate. Its not taking ALL cases into consideration. In my mind its a flawed number.

The numbers are wrong across the board.
Infected people can't get tested and confirmed positive.
People are asymptomatic and recovering without anyone pointing it as COVID-19
Deaths are recurring likely as a result of COVID-19 but people weren't tested and that number is not being added.

Simply put, the numbers are wrong in all directions.

No way to know. The best closed system estimate we have from the Diamond Princess is 1.6%, but that comes with it's own flaws. I've not really heard any scientists say that a 5% mortality rate is likely unless we are talking a hospital system that gets over run. My best guess, (take it for what it is), is that the mortality rate will ultimately shake out to about 1%. Maybe less. Lots more people have it than we know about right now.

As a side note, lots of encouraging news today. If you follow Ben Shapiro on Facebook, he just had a great live broadcast I thought was quite insightful.

Right now, 2.9% of all Americans that get it bad enough that they are showing symptoms and get tested, die. That’s about the best we can do. Of course there are probably many many Americans that have been infected but will never be tested, but you could say the same thing about just about anything. How many people technically have the flu but it’s just a mild case so they never get tested?

There have been a few studies outside the US where they tested entire groups of people, regardless of whether or not they showed symptoms. But none have been conclusive enough bc the data is still limited.

One thing that holds true. There hasn’t been a single death from Covid19 from someone that didn’t catch SARS-Cov2.

What numbers are you Using? If they get tested positive it should be conclusions divided by deaths?

Bottom line is that we’re not sure. It’s somewhere between 0% and 100%. That will have to suffice for now.

"Being overweight is a major risk for people infected with the new coronavirus and the United States is particularly vulnerable because of high obesity levels there, France's chief epidemiologist said on Wednesday.

Professor Jean-François Delfraissy, who heads the scientific council that advises the government on the epidemic, said as many as 17 million of France's 67 million citizens were seriously at risk from the coronavirus because of age, pre-existing illness or obesity.

"This virus is terrible, it can hit young people, in particular obese young people. Those who are overweight really need to be careful," Delfraissy told franceinfo radio."

Delfraissy said 88% of those infected with the coronavirus suffered only severe flu-like symptoms.

The mortality rate for young people entering hospital with severe COVID-19 respiratory disease was about 2%, he said, but that rose to 14% for people who are more fragile.

Despite the rapid spread of the virus in France, the country is still far from getting to the point where 50% to 60% of the population has been infected and recovered and at which point a certain level of "herd immunity" is reached, Delfraissy said.

"Initial data show that the number of people who may have developed immunity is lower than we imagined, about 10-15%," said the veteran infectious diseases specialist who has led French research into Ebola and AIDS."

https://news.trust.org/item/20200408103237-l2epf

We will never know the true mortality rate of COVID 19. Why? We are not testing. Unless you actually know how many get infected, you can't know what the real mortality rate is.

Regardless of the %, it's a lot of real people in absolute number. Go look at the morgue trailers. Since when were US funeral homes in any area over-run? Some of you would likely feel much differently if the dead were YOUR family members. I wonder how many people each of you have watched die? One?, Maybe none? My record: 110, all at once. When you've been on the real side of it, you might think differently. In fact, unless you are mentally ill, I know you would.

As recently as 2019 due to the Opiod epidemic.

Opioid death is absolutely self-inflicted. These did not choose to get sick - far different.

Just answered the question you asked. You did not give any parameters or limitations. You asked an open ended question.

Are you a first responder or prior military ?

I've about decided all this discussion over rates and number of dead is a total waste of time. What scares me is that we have so many sources reporting numbers as real and people arguing over them. when everyone knows the data is insufficient. I'm trying my best to get on with my life and let it shake out a year from now. It isn't like any of us are going to change any part of this anyway. If I'm not here a year from now, at least I didn't waste a lot of time on this.

There is a fair amount of validity to this argument.

I think in a sadistic way some of us find it therapeutic to talk about what we think might be best knowing full well our opinions are meaningless in terms of influencing public policy. It's mental masturbation. You know for medicinal purposes.

You must not hang out in the OT much... Bass section is much worse, they are still wanting to see the 16lber Roy Hawk caught on fork. lol

there you go again

Potentially screwing up 100s of millions of peoples lives with financial ruin, similar or worse to potentially "save" a few hundred thousand is ludicrous. A particular guy or two on here should just go have your panic attack elsewhere or at least stop extrapolating your personal situation and worries to the overall situation.

So in the past few days a good friend of mine in Texas was confirmed as COVID positive...he does not live in DFW area. Talking to him today he has not had severe symptoms though he falls in some of the worrisome risk groups. The state health folks contacted him at home to follow up as he was placed on 14 day quarantine. I asked did he have to go back for another test to be declared negative and recovered. He was told 3 days in a row with no fever he was considered over it. No further tests.
Makes me wonder why the recovery rate is lagging so bad if that is what the state considers recovered....surely you would expect some follow up testing. Guess not. Something does not add up.

This is about 50% of the problem, Trump did a good job

There is no way to assess the mortality rate accurately at this time. Infections far outweigh positive tests

It has been three days since I listened to our great Governor Abbott, of the great state of Texas give the numbers. His numbers show 10% of tested come back positive and under 2% of positive have a mortality. That would be near 7 million deaths in United States if everyone one were to be infected.

Data is data, several ways to use it good and bad. My personal thoughts are now, it was garbage in garbage out.

Our government and media used flawed numbers from flawed providers, now that WE are able to use true numbers from our own gathering it’s not near as bad as anyone thought.

We cratered a great economy and caused so much damage it will take years to recover.

On a side note I do know a 78 year old who is on a vent and probably won’t come home.
But common sense was never a option.

But not everyone is infected!!!!

That’s using flawed numbers again