Falcon lake rise prediction thread

How much will it come up with the rain heading it’s way?

My guess is 5’.


Edit: maybe I meant .005”. What’s a worthless place for a storm to stall.

‘Bout 80

A few inches.

Only predicted to get 2 inches there and nothing significant on watershed above it. It will be lucky to get any rise at all. No more than a few inches. Historically big rises come from pacific storms stalling on the watershed, not gulf storms.

Zero. They will suck it out faster than it can go in.

2ft. She got a decent presoak on Friday.

You're probably right but a well placed storm like Hurricane Harvey could do the trick.

The good news is the valley is getting a bunch of rain so they will probably slow the releases.

From watching the radar it looks like it might not get a damn drop.

Absolutely amazing, isn’t it.

I would say 2-4' rise based on the current radar ....

Falcon Lake rises 1". Grass and weeds in my yard, 10".

So far we haven’t got much of anything, just spotty showers. 1/4 inch in my gauge, so not expecting much but hopefully I’m wrong. The County ramp/Valeno area is about out of commission. You can still launch but after you clear the bridge you will hit a big sandbar at the river. Water is less than 2’ for a good ways south in the river channel. 2 weeks ago I barely made it through there and stripped the paint off my skeg. Guess the flood of 2010 silted that area in. In 2001 when the water was 55’ low we had no problem passing under the bridge and out to the river. Things have changed significantly since then. Our local lake in Laredo, Casa Blanca will be going dry if we don’t get any decent rains before summer ends. It has never been this low in its history, what a shame. That lake puts out some Big fish. TPW just stocked a bunch of SAL fry in it a few weeks ago, it has No cover left. I’m sure the hybrids have decimated those by now. Hopefully we will get some rain around her soon, we need it.

I saw something that said Falcon was at 9%, truly amazing.

Bout, point tree fiddy.

My guess is 3-4'. Widespread 2-5" rains are predicted for tomorrow dew west of Laredo. Most of that water will end up in Don Martin (which is only 12% full) so we'll still need a follow up storm to make a real difference in Falcon's lake level.

Almost all east of Falcon so far

Looks like it’s finally starting to track in the direction to help Choke, Falcon and Amistad. Maybe it’ll stall out and dump some meaningful quantities of rain.

Fished Amistad all weekend. Mind blowing the amount of water missing. Supposedly Del Rio got 6in after I left.

2 inches

Ran up to the ranch on Sat evening and drove back here early this AM.. I was excited to look at the rain gauge when I pulled up..

15/100ths..

Not a misprint..

If it catches anything they will just release it.

I think whoever told you that is pulling your leg. Or if they did get that it was right on the lake because none of the stream guages show any significant water right now.

Crazy just a slightly different path and both falcon and choke would've caught good water

Looks like Choke has got 2 1/2” over the lake but not much over the watershed.

There are two more systems in south west Mexico heading in the right direction.

Dang hoped those lakes would get some water.

Straight dumping in Pearsall for the last couple hours.

Not sure where the watershed begins to the east but parts of Duvall county are at 13+ inches with more to come

I think choke will get a decent bump once the water from uvalde area gets there.

Dang ground is so dry, none of the creeks have seen a bump. Maybe it’ll sit in the same spot for another day or so.

It sure does look impressive on radar though.

@James, did you get any meaningful rain at the shop? Looks like Laredo got quite a bit of water. We still probably need a follow up storm as dry as everything was.

Off by 100 miles as usual. Nueces will be absolutely flooded and go right into the Gulf.....

That 15/100ths was at the shop!


Got 1.5 just west of Devine..

Laredo had a good rain.. River rose four or five feet quickly but has already dropped a lot..

The Nueces shows a whopping 8 CFS at Barksdale and not much more any where else.

Don’t worry about it grout. You don’t know how to fish Falcon anyways.

Maybe your Gar Hole will catch a little water.

Watching the news and Laredo is getting pounded. I say it comes up 5000 points!

Well so far here in Laredo my gauge shows just shy of 6 inches. We got one more large cell approaching from the south. After that it looks like that’s all we are getting out of this system. Hopefully the watershed got more than we did. Falcon will probably rise 2 to 3 feet at best.

That next one is now predicted to take almost the same path. This could get interesting!

With the missed prediction of this one, the new one will end up in Houston.

That is true, but if Falcon will come up, people will stop coming to lake Gar Hole!

The meat eaters will never stop

That 13+ inches went somewhere and it looked like the nueces watershed to me. We're talking south Duvall county

Yup actually looks like it'll skirt the Mexican coast and go in around Brownsville. Could definitely make a difference especially so close to this one.

Flash flood warning for the Rio Grand near Dryden. Expected to crest at 8.7’ above flood stage. got a long way to go and I doubt we get a significant rise from any of them, but great to see all three catch a drink.

Yep, looks like Amistad might be the only one to benefit a little. But, they’ll just let it out, again.

I have no idea what will happen.. But I like the way you guys think...

It is incredible how dry south Texas, especially the Frio river basin was before this storm. Widespread coverage of over 5" in the drainage and the flow is relatively non existent.

It’s been mostly dry there for all of time

I driven over the Frio on 35 south many times when the river was a half a mile wide..

Choke comes up six inches..

When Max's cafe has water in it.. Then you gonna catch some at Choke..

Falcon Lake Level says up 6 ft ( Lake Falcon tackle)

Not six feet..

We're up almost two feet so far.. Still coming up and we should catch about three to five feet overall..

Too early to tell..

Only 41.39 feet to go. Come on with it!!!

Think we're closer to 254.66..

Gauge has been screwey with rising water..

Bout 46.5 feet low..

And another storm on the way. Thank you, GOD for blessing South Texas with much needed rain.

is valve stuck again??? got info from your Falcon Levels

Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I'm upping my prediction to 6'. Two bigger flows have already gone through Laredo with a third slowly tapering off now.

Last time I was there I caught a spinnerbait fish off the old church. I think it still has a ways to go.

Up 1.66' so far from the low..

We'll see!!

That was about the time I killed my last Mexico Buck about 10 miles from there. It was kind of Leary hunting over there about that time. Maybe one day I will go back. Deer hunting is just as good as the bass fishing. Theres nothing like Fishing and Hunting in south Texas or Mexico. Truely a sportsman paradise. If you can afford it

You locals keep pictures coming of river, creeks, and ramps as lake progresses next couple of weeks. Average pictures they say is worth 10,000 words. Pictures of more water on Falcon, Amistad, and choke are worth more words than one man can count to me.

Went back down to Beacon Lodge on the river yesterday evening..

It appears that the big push of water on the top of the lake is over, as the water level was about 10 inches lower and the current has surely slowed..

The gauge at the dam appears to be screwed up again this morning.. Apparently it is only used to going down..

So not really sure what our water level is right now..

Sux. Thought for sure the rise would be substantial. Heard reports of 10-12 inches of rain near Laredo. Guess we need back to back monsoons to make a dent.

Thank you, sir, keep updates coming, and well keep praying for more rain.

Up 2' feet since last week per this site https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/individual/falcon

I guess it's better than nothing, but not much

That’s about all we’re going to get.

Regretfully, Ellis island of the south is still open for business.

I also think we are about topped out.. Might gain a few inches yet..

The gauge at the dam is stuck in the same position as yesterday afternoon.. Know it is a little higher..

Check it out Tommar!

Next round is in the Gulf now pointed towards Falcon, put your Life Jackets on and start your rain dance.

This next round is starting to gain some punch. It's started get'n a eye. Maybe some help, ???

If it'll line up right should atleast get a nice bump in levels. I don't see it stalling but anything is possible. Good chance Mexico watershed gets some

Looks like it's pointed in the right direction, but looks like it might peter out before it get's to Falcon

I'd be shocked if that moisture doesn't pull over to the Rio. The ground is primed so hopefully falcon can catch another few feet

I bet more moisture falls than an inch.

Latest one

It’s going to need to shift a decent amount to the West to have any significant impact on Falcon. Right now all models show almost no rain for the main watershed. Hopefully something will change.

La Pesca Mexico.. Where hurricanes go to die...