Leaking Oil, what’s my issue

Noticed Sunday when I got home that there was some oil on my transom saver. Today I went back out and looked and here is what I found...

What wrong? Is this lower unit seals? What’s my damage? Thanks if anyone can help!

when you put new grease in the lower unit did you get the old gasket out and put a new one in?

Looks like the shift shaft seal is leaking.

Does it smell like LU oil? or Gas? I am saying this because i had a merc 225 EFI that leaked oil gas mixture first because of worn out bleed line and the second time the block seal was leaking oil/fuel mixture from where the two halves of the motor block joined together. If the oil was on the transom saver it may be coming from the engine. The lower unit is on the other side and below the transom saver

Shift shaft seal or seal under water pump

I had the same LU and when my upper shift shaft seal went out the oil came out of that hole. Just throwing some ideas at you

Take the Cowling off and see if any oil is in the bottom of the lower cowling and if it is it wull run down through the swivel tube on to the lower unit