Did a little research on how much rain it could take
to fill L. Palestine to Pool Level. Went back and looked
at Dec 2006 & Jan 2007's rapid rise. Several fisherman and
TP&W had to rescue un-manned boats that had floated out
of their boat houses. They were headed to the spillway.
Also looked up the El Nino-La Nina effects on the lake's
levels.

Nice research. But, I'm still wondering how much rain in what period of time will be required to fill the lake. Or, more importantly, how much rain in what minimum period of time would it take to raise the lake level one foot.

I'm an optimist.

Deleted. Duplicate post.

Good work LL. It looks like a 4.5 inch rain in January 2007 accounted for the 4 foot rise.

One cannot answer Eastexn directly because the first part of any rain must saturate the ground before the lake gets runoff. The 4.5 inch rain was preceded by several lesser rain events.

Did I read your results correctly? If not, I would enjoy your explanation.

In any case, we are in a world of hurt because of the strong La Nina. I doubt if we can expect a 4.5 inch rain any time soon.

I am not familiar with lake palestine but I like research you have done.

To the question about how much rain to bring it back up, that is a loaded question with many variables as you have already pointed out. Soil moisture, soil properties, evapotraspiration, slope gradient, types of vegetation, area of watershed, etc. all play a role in this. The late fall, winter, and early spring months are the best times for runoff to occur as the ET is usually lowest.

The biggest thing is to have several rain events in a row. If you look at your graph with the rainfall there was 7 separate rain events, and then the big 4.5 incher. The ground was fully saturated by the 4.5 inch rain and therefore a large percentage could runoff into the watershed.

The current la nina is moderate at best and there are signs that it has possibly bottomed out. The current weather pattern has been favorable to rain in Texas as the pacific storms have tracked far enough south. This is forecast to continue until at least early December. So there is a little bit of hope

If I am reading the graphs right, and the conditions were the same as Jan 2007, one 4.5" rain would about fill Lake Palestine, since it is 6.5' low, providing that the rain was in the lake watershed.

So, now, all we have to do is pray for a little old 4.5" rain rather than a big rain.

That is interesting as I thought we would need a really big and several day long rain event.

Thanks LL for the research. Good stuff.

Yes, the watershed's soil & streams need to first
be saturated & full in order for a substantial rain
event to fill the lake. On many reservoirs, during the
summer months, the daily evaporation usually exceeds
the daily water demand from the municipal pumps. I think
that 4 or so 1-2" close spaced rain events should fill
the lake. NOAA's radar page has a Storm Total feature
(on the left) that gives a good look at what amounts of
rain the watershed got.

I live on the lake. June 2010 we got 9.7" in 72 hours, lake came up apprx 3'.

As the water war rages on I can relate more to the fish in the lake then the people fighting the legal battles on dry land. We are all like fish in that we cannot live without water for very long but this fact seems to go unnoticed by most folks until it's nearly too late.

I view the water situation in Texas in the same vane as the money problems this whole country has and all the misguided attempts to "fix" the problem are doing nothing but making it worse. We cannot "spend" our way out of money trouble any more then we can irrigate our way out of water shortages. So why is it that we seem to focus so much effort on fighting over the last few drops of water when we should really be implementing serious conservation methods and programs. Unfortunately for many entities, future allocations of water are often based on historical use and projected growth, neither of which reflects a new reality when dealing with an extended drought. To compound the problem "historical" use data are sometimes manipulated by wasting huge volumes of water to keep the "numbers" up under the "use it or lose it" allocation methodology. It seems that few seriously look into ways to significantly reduce water usage until it hits the pocketbook. The fish cannot do much to change their drought shrinking living situation but we can if we simply ask the questions, learn and take action now.


The reality and gravity of running out of water is very real just ask the folks up in Groesbeck, one of many Texas cities dealing with serious water shortages.

The following is an excerpt from the http://www.cityofgroesbeck.com/ website.

Emergency Message

This is an Emergency Message from the City of Groesbeck.

The City of Groesbeck has a critical water shortage. We are requesting that you reduce the use of water at your home or business to prevent us from running out of water. We, as a whole, must reduce our water usage immediately!

We are working on several solutions but, reducing our usage is the most critical.

For continued updates and conservation tips, refer to this website: www.cityofgroesbeck.com.

View conservation tips Here

Thank you for your cooperation.

This is an Emergency Message from the City of Groesbeck.

Jackie Levingston, Mayor

Tyler Airport got 1.33 inches. The northern part of the watershed got +/- 1.5 inches.
The NE Lakes' watersheds picked up +2.5".
Rain is forcast for Monday & next weekend.

.
Perhaps 3" of rain this week.

Sure hope you're right. We are way overdue.

Thanks for the info.

Yesterday's lake level indicated a rise of 6" since Jan 1.

We'll take another 1/2" this week.

Perhaps another 2" this week !

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

7" of rain will fill up L. Palestine plus perhaps 2 ft over the spillway.
WX forcasters are having a hard time believing
this so they are going with the 2-4".

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif