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Lumber - Any guys here in the business
#13873600
02/04/21 03:53 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 2,600
pacertom
OP
Extreme Angler
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OP
Extreme Angler
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 2,600 |
I am building a house on Texoma and we're just starting the basement and slab for the garage. I know lumber has went way up the last year and looking for any TFFers in the business to run some questions by.
-When will lumber prices stabilize and come back down to reality - I have an unlimited time frame so can wait out the market -From what I have read, the futures market looks to be coming down in May-June but that is obviously subject to change - just looking for market intelligence to make the right timing decision -I am getting the floor trusses from Wood truss but need the rest of the lumber package quoted - now and future - Please PM me if you are in the biz.
A MAN WILL NEVER GO TO HIS GRAVE WISHING HE'D FISHED LESS!!
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: pacertom]
#13873763
02/04/21 05:40 PM
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Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 9,200
the skipper
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 9,200 |
We are starting the process, well, weve been in the process since last fall. I've been keeping a pretty good eye on it, talking to multiple builders and stuff. Basically here's what the consensus is, if you want osb to be back to 7 or 8 bucks your dreaming. Prices will drop a little mid year but not back to normal. Just my $.02, prices wont get back to pre covid numbers until interest rates rise and sales and construction come to a halt. That's a guessing game when that will happen
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: pacertom]
#13873770
02/04/21 05:43 PM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 14,489
bloo_rainger
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 14,489 |
buy some GME stock and cash it in a 1k per share and don't worry about the price of wood. it won't matter...…..
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: pacertom]
#13873787
02/04/21 05:54 PM
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Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 8,788
Roller22
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 8,788 |
I Thes. 5:16-18
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: the skipper]
#13873794
02/04/21 05:57 PM
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Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 41,464
butch sanders
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 41,464 |
We are starting the process, well, weve been in the process since last fall. I've been keeping a pretty good eye on it, talking to multiple builders and stuff. Basically here's what the consensus is, if you want osb to be back to 7 or 8 bucks your dreaming. Prices will drop a little mid year but not back to normal. Just my $.02, prices wont get back to pre covid numbers until interest rates rise and sales and construction come to a halt. That's a guessing game when that will happen great synopsis
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: pacertom]
#13873801
02/04/21 06:01 PM
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Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 15,273
Sawhorse
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 15,273 |
No disrespect, but this thread would have been better if the word “Wood†had been used in the title.
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: pacertom]
#13873808
02/04/21 06:05 PM
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Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 569
Big_Country01
Pro Angler
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Pro Angler
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 569 |
Its a little ridiculous. Standing timber prices have been low for the past several years. I am convinced that timber prices are very similar to oil prices. Neither have very much to do with supply and demand. They blame covid for slow production at the mills, but most mills are automated these days.
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: pacertom]
#13873845
02/04/21 06:40 PM
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 54,466
RayBob
Super Freak
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Super Freak
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 54,466 |
I posted this on another lumber pricing thread. I had a timber cruise back in December on about 10 acres of tall, mature pine. The tall meant that the tops (anything< 9" butts) would make chip wood too. So saw logs ( for making stick lumber) and chip wood were my raw product. He said these logs would bring about $22/ton. That's crazy considering the cost of the finished products now. In 2004 my neighbor cut just the saw logs off of about 45 acres of his property and by the end of the cut was getting $90/ton (in 2004 dollars).
Needless to say I told the guy cruising my timber that I'd let the bugs eat it before allowing crews in here to tear up the place at that kind of return.
Hardwood logs are at $45/ton right now.
Advice? Wise men don't need it. Fools won't heed it.
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: pacertom]
#13874090
02/04/21 09:14 PM
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Joined: May 2003
Posts: 16,322
Chris B
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 16,322 |
It's just wonderful right now. Not only has the lumber doubled in price in the last year. It is taking 4-5 weeks to get the lumber delivered right now. And that's for the first drop. I'm waiting a couple of weeks right now for my second drop. I'm being told to expect this to continue into the next year.
I hate photobucket.
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: pacertom]
#13874098
02/04/21 09:24 PM
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Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 121,172
hopalong
Pescador Loco
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Pescador Loco
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 121,172 |
y'all should have been around for the spotted owl debacle of 1994, same thing but on redwood.
I ended up doing 4 houses in mahogany decks instead of redwood and it was about 33% less expensive at the time. the market is what the producers tell you it is, as stated most mills are automated now and only take about 25 - 30 folks to run. plywood mills are a little more complicated but framing lumber is a no brainer button pushing job now.
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: RayBob]
#13874119
02/04/21 09:50 PM
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,737
JCG57
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,737 |
I posted this on another lumber pricing thread. I had a timber cruise back in December on about 10 acres of tall, mature pine. The tall meant that the tops (anything< 9" butts) would make chip wood too. So saw logs ( for making stick lumber) and chip wood were my raw product. He said these logs would bring about $22/ton. That's crazy considering the cost of the finished products now. In 2004 my neighbor cut just the saw logs off of about 45 acres of his property and by the end of the cut was getting $90/ton (in 2004 dollars).
Needless to say I told the guy cruising my timber that I'd let the bugs eat it before allowing crews in here to tear up the place at that kind of return.
Hardwood logs are at $45/ton right now. We are just about finished with some thinning on some Arkansas property. Did not want to sell in this market, but the timber on the property had not been cut for over 60 years (FIL could not bring himself to cut any trees) and it really needed to be thinned. For the pine, getting $19 for tops, $30 for grade, $50 - $57 for poles depending on height. Oak priced at $40, unless white oak for staves at $100 (property is close to a stave mill). Pulp is virtually worthless.
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: pacertom]
#13874309
02/05/21 12:35 AM
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Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 21,109
buda13
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 21,109 |
If it were me, I’d write off ‘21 all together.
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Re: Lumber - Any guys here in the business
[Re: pacertom]
#13876909
02/06/21 11:34 PM
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Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 10,487
Monty Wright
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 10,487 |
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