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Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Mark Perry] #13507311 04/07/20 09:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Mark Perry
Originally Posted by Jpurdue
Originally Posted by Mark Perry

No offense but i do not need you to explain to me what I saw or how to digest it....I have followed this from early on and have spent a good amount of time looking at and comparing models. I know what I have seen, read and heard with my own eyes and ears. Not trying to be rude but I just do not feel you are in a position of knowledge in this situation to "teach" me about it. You are digesting what you are seeing same as anyone else. We both have opinions and that is all they are. There have been multiple projections with all types of scenarios. Many went scorched Earth, inflated the numbers and went for the scare tactic mentality. Sadly a lot of actions were based on little to no information. Maybe its time to reevaluate some things?
I have watched the Task Force speak and seen the entire news conference word for word then see many articles posted minutes later totally twisting what they just stated. Its almost insane seeing this happen and then people run with it as fact when their words get twisted.

Again, you cannot go from projections of millions and millions to 400,000 to 240,000 to 100,00 to 93,000 to 81,000 in a week or two and expect for the US citizenship to continue to trust some of these projections. It really points to the the real possibility now that we probably could have kept people working and implemented social distancing work policies and still be pretty close to where we are now. Economy better off, healthcare limits still being respected and maintained etc.




No offense, but I'm not sure what you don't understand Mark. Trump and Trumps experts said, "If we don't do these things millions could die." We did the things and millions didn't die. So I'm not sure what the issue here is. They were if then statements and you are completely ignoring the if. That matters.

Plus I think just about everyone has been extraordinarily clear on the limitations of models. Models are based on inputs, we still don't have a great sense of what those inputs are. (R0, mortality rate, hospitalization rate, total case prevalence, ICU Rate, etc...)



That is the beauty of it...you do not have to be sure of how I understand it....it is up to me to form my own opinions on it and from what I have seen "if" was not always used in all of these projections. There is no way you can deny you have been one of the leaders in pushing the projections with the higher death rates on here since this has started. You have also taken it upon yourself to be the "teacher" of all things COVID-19 on here to the point of making sure many positive type posts in regards to the virus get a dose of doom and gloom and fear. You are all about numbers, many of us get that but at the end of the day all many of us have said since day one is we had faith and hope that the numbers would be way less. We are seeing more evidence of that now. Its a good thing. No one is saying its over but if things stay like they are trending then we need a serious reevaluation of how we are dealing with this on many levels and start using that data to move forward rather than knee jerk reactions and scare tactics.



I'll have to cordially disagree sir, with the first half of your paragraph. I do not think I've pushed doom and gloom. I think I've pushed reality, which is a 1-2.5% death rate, which spikes when hospitals get overwhelmed. If that's doom and gloom, then I guess I'm guilty as charged. I've pushed caution until we better understand the beast. I've pushed back on folks who've argued this is a hoax. I've tried to be very careful not to put out death toll projections and case count projections, although I may have foolishly done a time or two.

I'll agree 100% I've been vocal on this. But I also think I've been a realist. I also think I've tried to be positive in spots where ever I saw something that might warrant it. If you've kept up with my posts you'll know there's been a fair amount of that recently.

If I have a regret it's been my tone I've often taken. Some of that has been out of exasperation. Some of that has been unintentional while multitasking. Some of that has been the weight of all this. None of those are good excuses.

I appreciate the community here, even though I passionately disagree with many of you.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

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Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Kattelyn] #13507336 04/07/20 09:27 PM
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Looks like it was just a weekend effect in dallas 109 new cases today


Originally Posted by Mark Perry
Next thing you know you will be calling a Dr. Pepper a pop and putting chili on spaghetti.

Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Kattelyn] #13507364 04/07/20 09:42 PM
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Originally Posted by bradnitro175
Looks like it was just a weekend effect in dallas 109 new cases today


Jenkins mentioned today that there is evidence the curve is flattening in Dallas via the hospital numbers. Hopefully that is a good thing and holds to be true. flehan

Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Kattelyn] #13507387 04/07/20 10:02 PM
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We have some bad weeks ahead. Fortunately it will not be as bad as forecast.


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Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: John175โ˜ฎ] #13507412 04/07/20 10:25 PM
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Originally Posted by John175โ˜ฎ
We have some bad weeks ahead. Fortunately it will not be as bad as forecast.

Hopefully people will continue to practice proper hygiene and things can begin to resume some sort of normalcy. However, if they go back to the way things were...

The heat and high humidity need to return to Texas and stay here. That will be our best helper next to hygiene.

I also hope people and companies have learned if someone is sick, it's cheaper to pay them to take the day off than it is to have them come in.

Last edited by LoneStarSon; 04/07/20 10:26 PM.
Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Mark Perry] #13507428 04/07/20 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Mark Perry
Originally Posted by bradnitro175
Looks like it was just a weekend effect in dallas 109 new cases today


Jenkins mentioned today that there is evidence the curve is flattening in Dallas via the hospital numbers. Hopefully that is a good thing and holds to be true. flehan

Love me some Jenkins happy b day sir balloons


Originally Posted by Mark Perry
Next thing you know you will be calling a Dr. Pepper a pop and putting chili on spaghetti.

Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: LoneStarSon] #13507433 04/07/20 10:47 PM
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Originally Posted by LoneStarSon
Originally Posted by John175โ˜ฎ
We have some bad weeks ahead. Fortunately it will not be as bad as forecast.

Hopefully people will continue to practice proper hygiene


I haven't showered today. I did brush my teeth. So I got that going for me.


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Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Derek ๐Ÿ] #13507440 04/07/20 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Derek ๐Ÿ
Originally Posted by LoneStarSon
Originally Posted by John175โ˜ฎ
We have some bad weeks ahead. Fortunately it will not be as bad as forecast.

Hopefully people will continue to practice proper hygiene


I haven't showered today. I did brush my teeth. So I got that going for me.


I washed my hands five times today. Looking forward to the day when I can wash the rest of me.

Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Kattelyn] #13507443 04/07/20 10:55 PM
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I wash so much at work now my arms are ashy to my elbows

Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Derek ๐Ÿ] #13507446 04/07/20 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Derek ๐Ÿ
Originally Posted by LoneStarSon
Originally Posted by John175โ˜ฎ
We have some bad weeks ahead. Fortunately it will not be as bad as forecast.

Hopefully people will continue to practice proper hygiene


I haven't showered today. I did brush my teeth. So I got that going for me.
Your poor wife and daughters....

Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Kattelyn] #13507453 04/07/20 11:03 PM
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Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Kattelyn] #13507563 04/08/20 12:24 AM
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Looks like the stock market rethought the situation.

Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: LoneStarSon] #13507588 04/08/20 12:44 AM
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Originally Posted by LoneStarSon
Originally Posted by John175โ˜ฎ
We have some bad weeks ahead. Fortunately it will not be as bad as forecast.

Hopefully people will continue to practice proper hygiene and things can begin to resume some sort of normalcy. However, if they go back to the way things were...

The heat and high humidity need to return to Texas and stay here. That will be our best helper next to hygiene.

I also hope people and companies have learned if someone is sick, it's cheaper to pay them to take the day off than it is to have them come in.


I never understood why companies were so weird about that. One boss I had said, if youโ€™re sick, stay home. I donโ€™t care if you use a sick day or not, just donโ€™t get everyone else here sick. Made sense to me.


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Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Bigbob_FTW] #13507643 04/08/20 01:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Bigbob_FTW
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Oh Lord thought it was a Fira!! roflmao


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Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for Texas. [Re: Kattelyn] #13507656 04/08/20 01:26 AM
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Not to play devils advoacate but I do believe a tap the brakes initiative is in order. Now there aremore tests available, and more people being tested the case numbers may rise statistically. What will be interesting to see is if the recovery rate vs. deceased rate delta increases.

I'm ready to get on with a new normal and for the economy to revive but not at the expense of a spike in deaths and healthcare overwhelmed to the point of haveing to make triage decisions they are not equipped for.

Last edited by H2O Seeker; 04/08/20 01:26 AM. Reason: Typo

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