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Leading Indicators #13504922 04/06/20 03:37 PM
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JCG57 Online Content OP
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I have been tracking and charting the daily death rates from COVID-19 (how morbid is that?). For five of the last six days the second derivative of the "death function" has been negative, and increasingly so. What does that mean? The slope of the daily death curve, on a national level, has been flattening. And the Dow is up about a thousand points as I write this. Looks like it may be time to switch from very short term trading mode to long term investment mode (with a pronounced bias toward quality).

Re: Leading Indicators [Re: JCG57] #13504958 04/06/20 03:56 PM
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Doesn't bode well for the bears as far as the stock market is concerned. Squeeze them enough and they'll be forced to cover their short positions,thereby pushing the market even higher.

Re: Leading Indicators [Re: JCG57] #13506129 04/07/20 03:19 AM
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Spiderman Offline
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May want to take this into consideration before walking back into the CASINO.


An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway" [source]


The Truth is six of the seven Dwarfs are not Happy!
Re: Leading Indicators [Re: Snakeyes711] #13506140 04/07/20 03:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Snakeyes711
Doesn't bode well for the bears as far as the stock market is concerned. Squeeze them enough and they'll be forced to cover their short positions,thereby pushing the market even higher.

good luck
trumps not going to fix this with a tweet,

Re: Leading Indicators [Re: JCG57] #13506143 04/07/20 03:36 AM
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I hope this turns out to be a seasonal thing so we can catch a break from it over the summer and regroup. We should be better prepared for second season than we were for the first.

Assuming I'm still alive and employed by the time I get it, I think I'll put my $1200 stimulus check into the stock market. What's the worst that could happen?

Re: Leading Indicators [Re: Gusick] #13506148 04/07/20 03:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Gusick
I hope this turns out to be a seasonal thing so we can catch a break from it over the summer and regroup. We should be better prepared for second season than we were for the first.

Assuming I'm still alive and employed by the time I get it, I think I'll put my $1200 stimulus check into the stock market. What's the worst that could happen?

you are going to give the 1200 back out of next years return for sure

Re: Leading Indicators [Re: MARKIT] #13506156 04/07/20 03:54 AM
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Originally Posted by MARKIT
Originally Posted by Gusick
I hope this turns out to be a seasonal thing so we can catch a break from it over the summer and regroup. We should be better prepared for second season than we were for the first.

Assuming I'm still alive and employed by the time I get it, I think I'll put my $1200 stimulus check into the stock market. What's the worst that could happen?

you are going to give the 1200 back out of next years return for sure


True that the "free" $1200 will be paid back on your next return. It's a loan, not a gift. Is that being missed?

It's not seasonal as far as best science knows. Australia was getting their first cases in January which is basically like their July or August and it's getting bad there. Guess they're not cool enough to get on the news reports but it's not working out well for them even with the warm weather.

Re: Leading Indicators [Re: JCG57] #13506157 04/07/20 03:54 AM
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[censored]! I still haven't paid my taxes for this tax season. I don't even know how much I owe yet. I hate turbo tax but I doubt I'll get into an accountant this week. While some of you are coloring Easter eggs this weekend, I'll be on turbo tax, and drinking.

Re: Leading Indicators [Re: JCG57] #13506165 04/07/20 04:01 AM
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The left won’t allow this type of behavior.


Y’all watch out.

Re: Leading Indicators [Re: JCG57] #13506166 04/07/20 04:02 AM
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Yes, the prospect of this being a seasonal virus may be wishful thinking. It's too soon to know. Dr. Fausi said that he thinks it might be seasonal but I don't know what he was basing that on. Good point that the whole world currently has this regardless of the season. Time will tell.

Re: Leading Indicators [Re: Gusick] #13506182 04/07/20 05:04 AM
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FXfromTx Offline
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Originally Posted by Gusick
[censored]! I still haven't paid my taxes for this tax season. I don't even know how much I owe yet. I hate turbo tax but I doubt I'll get into an accountant this week. While some of you are coloring Easter eggs this weekend, I'll be on turbo tax, and drinking.


They bumped tax day back to July 15th because of everything going on(don't take my word for it, though I'm 99.9% sure as that came from my CPA). You have time.


"The fishing was good; it was the catching that was bad."
Re: Leading Indicators [Re: JCG57] #13506285 04/07/20 11:41 AM
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Percentage increase in deaths fell again yesterday so the flattening trend continues. Dow futures up 800 points as I write this.

Re: Leading Indicators [Re: JCG57] #13506344 04/07/20 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted by JCG57
Percentage increase in deaths fell again yesterday so the flattening trend continues. Dow futures up 800 points as I write this.


Yep, seeing the same thing.


Keep the Lord in your heart and keep your powder dry.
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