No, it will be speeding up very soon. All the modeling is a guess, but it's been holding up looking at just about any set of numbers published. The US daily death rate has been doubling every 3-4 days fairly consistently, so don't worry about 500/day. In a week it will likely be well above 2000 PER DAY.

It may be about to take a jump here in the Houston area. Today, 50 or 60 people at a seniors apartment complex in the Woodlands are said to be infected. The complex offers community dining, so it is likely they shared it there. The question is, how many others got it from that hotbed that may not show symptoms for some time, and who else will they infect?

Compound growth can be a beautiful thing...unless we're talking about a virus.

Annually more than predicted by COVID-19 and nobody bats an eye...


https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/new...w_third_leading_cause_of_death_in_the_us

This reminds me of the spike in autism spectrum disease diagnoses back in about 2010. After tons of research they found no medical cause and ruled most out. They came down to the conclusion that the spike was due to a change in the way it was diagnosed and testing at increasingly earlier ages, as low as age 2. Do ya' think they followed those kids for 5 years to find out many didn't have autism after all and pulled them off the books?

We don't know and never will know how many cases, hospitalizations, or deaths we've experienced due to covid-19. I can't cite a course, but I heard somewhere that they are only assigning covid-19 as cause of death to those who tested positive before passing, which actually makes sense. Not a doc so I don't know if there are post mortem tests or not.

As for the data getting out, pulling a stent in the military taught me that the absolute worst thing for morale is rumors. You don't want to be in Squad A and hear something from a member of Squad B that's gonna' effect you.

So with all that being considered, I think our leaders have to come out and say something, even if the numbers are soft. It's the classic no-win scenario. If they say something they could be proven wrong down the road, if they say nothing they're hiding something.

At any rate, prayers and best wishes for all. Y'all be safe out there, and in the words of Bill and Ted, "Be excellent to each other".

I sure hope this isn't true but you have to wonder about some of it.

Will this be one of those documentaries you see in ten years about how we were duped into believing some of these totals?

I can say this..... I don't know anyone who has Covid 19 or that even knows somebody that has it. It's all someone that knows someone that knows someone.

I saw one of the intake nurses from Baylor today (somewhat small town clinic that I shouldn't say where) who said the protocol is to call in with symptoms and if you answer yes to three questions: fever, respiratory issues and I don't remember the third, you have to go to the drive through testing center and then you're admitted when it shows positive.

Guess how many people have tested positive? Zero. I must admit I was shocked.

Nevertheless..... I don't want to be cavalier with other people's heath and will respectfully follow the "rules" until we know otherwise.

I absolutely hate that we can't trust some of these sources.

Just the rantings of a simple country dentist....

J

Something close to 50% of all cases are in New York. I think 1.5% of cases are in Texas. The real surprise would be if you did know a bunch of folks at this point. Particularly if you are in a rural area.

Relatives of two employees have COVID19; one is not expected to live. I believe he's in DFW.
We learned this morning that a senior's apartment complex within 10 miles of my home has 50-60 cases. It was noted they have community dining available, so that may be the vector venue for that group, but we have no idea how much it has been spread from there.

Haven’t read all responses. Japan doesn’t change there immigration rules to cater to immigrants. It’s Japan’s way or the highway. So they have less people bringing in the virus.

Jackson Bean, I know one person quite well who knew the 60 yo pilot who died in Midland back when there was 5 or 6 confirmed cases. I did not know the pilot myself though.

Doc,

I was talking with a fishing guide this past weekend in St. Bernard Parish. His buddy was the first Covid 19 death in St. Bernard Parish a few weeks ago, he was from Delacroix.

He had stage 4 cancer, went to the hospital for treatment, came home and was sick almost immediately. Later found out he caught it in the hospital.