|
Forums59
Topics1,039,238
Posts13,961,366
Members144,196
| |
Most Online39,925
Dec 30th, 2023
|
|
 Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: Icepick]
#13492242
03/28/20 09:56 PM
|
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 40,426
WAWI
TFF Guru
|
|
TFF Guru
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 40,426 |
Tough to know where to start here. First and foremost though you are comparing full year statistics of mostly avoidable things with fairly stable death rates to a virus that has been around in the US for about 2 months and is growing exponentially. Two days ago 268 people died of the virus. Yesterday 401 died. Today it'll probably top 500. Tomorrow what'll it be?
It's true roughly 40,000 people die per year in car accidents. That's 100 per day. If that were doubling every three or 4 days days though, you can bet your bottom dollar folks would be very concerned about cars.
If you don't want to die from smoking, don't smoke.
If you don't want to die from Alcohol, don't drink.
Avoiding COVID-19 is not so simple.
Hopefully this thing will just go away. Hopefully it'll stop spreading exponentially. Hopefully hospitals won't get swamped. Hopefully the number dying daily will start to decline. Hope though, is not a strategy.
Stay safe sir!  Well said. The folks who continue to downplay this pandemic are living in a bubble that will burst soon. Comparing causes of death as if that somehow lessens the seriousness of this virus is foolish. Today the first infant died. A month ago everyone thought only the elderly and people with preexisting conditions were in serious danger. Obviously that's been proven wrong. I'm not sure it's been proven wrong
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: WAWI]
#13492248
03/28/20 10:02 PM
|
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 21,992
Caribou
TFF Guru
|
|
TFF Guru
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 21,992 |
Tough to know where to start here. First and foremost though you are comparing full year statistics of mostly avoidable things with fairly stable death rates to a virus that has been around in the US for about 2 months and is growing exponentially. Two days ago 268 people died of the virus. Yesterday 401 died. Today it'll probably top 500. Tomorrow what'll it be?
It's true roughly 40,000 people die per year in car accidents. That's 100 per day. If that were doubling every three or 4 days days though, you can bet your bottom dollar folks would be very concerned about cars.
If you don't want to die from smoking, don't smoke.
If you don't want to die from Alcohol, don't drink.
Avoiding COVID-19 is not so simple.
Hopefully this thing will just go away. Hopefully it'll stop spreading exponentially. Hopefully hospitals won't get swamped. Hopefully the number dying daily will start to decline. Hope though, is not a strategy.
Stay safe sir! Well said. The folks who continue to downplay this pandemic are living in a bubble that will burst soon. Comparing causes of death as if that somehow lessens the seriousness of this virus is foolish. Today the first infant died. A month ago everyone thought only the elderly and people with preexisting conditions were in serious danger. Obviously that's been proven wrong. I'm not sure it's been proven wrong 17 year old with no prior medical issues died this week in LA. Several people in the 50s who were otherwise healthy have died. An infant has died. Middle aged people are requiring medical assistance in hospitals, and are on ventilators. It’s not just the 80 year olds with emphysema who are struggling.
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: Caribou]
#13492250
03/28/20 10:07 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,936
John175☮
MACHO MAN
|
|
MACHO MAN
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,936 |
The more we test the lower the death rate. Initially they were only testing those admitted to a hospital. There are far more walking around with it and not even aware.
I don't downplay the pandemic. If you are in the high risk pool get away from everyone. Isolate yourself. You have a 1 in 6 chance of dying. Treating everyone the same is ridiculous and our economy cannot sustain such folly. You don’t get it. You can’t only put the high risk away. The number of infected people would be so astronomical without what we are currently doing that the medical system would collapse and we would end up in a far worse economical state by the time it was over. Our current course of action is the best course of action to actually make a dent in the spread, and maintain some semblance of an economy. It’s not the death toll that really matters in how this effects us. It’s in the number of people who would need medical assistance. If you put the high risk population away, and the other 70% of the population got vivid within 2 weeks of each other, we would be in FAR worse shape than we are now. OK. The collective has spoken. I have a layoff list ready to go. I'll let them know on Monday. I will abide by the collective rules. I'll learn to be callous to the youngs and disregard their future. All hail the doctors. Screw the economists. What do they know anyway?
“Do not pray for easier lives. Pray to be stronger men.” -JFK
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: Caribou]
#13492252
03/28/20 10:07 PM
|
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,266
Tsunami_1
Extreme Angler
|
|
Extreme Angler
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,266 |
Not taking a side, just pointing this out.
Original post (4) hours ago:
94,425 cases, 1429 deaths
Information just now from John Hopkins University:
119,748 cases, 1991 deaths, 921 recovered
4 hours!
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: John175☮]
#13492264
03/28/20 10:15 PM
|
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 21,992
Caribou
TFF Guru
|
|
TFF Guru
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 21,992 |
The more we test the lower the death rate. Initially they were only testing those admitted to a hospital. There are far more walking around with it and not even aware.
I don't downplay the pandemic. If you are in the high risk pool get away from everyone. Isolate yourself. You have a 1 in 6 chance of dying. Treating everyone the same is ridiculous and our economy cannot sustain such folly. You don’t get it. You can’t only put the high risk away. The number of infected people would be so astronomical without what we are currently doing that the medical system would collapse and we would end up in a far worse economical state by the time it was over. Our current course of action is the best course of action to actually make a dent in the spread, and maintain some semblance of an economy. It’s not the death toll that really matters in how this effects us. It’s in the number of people who would need medical assistance. If you put the high risk population away, and the other 70% of the population got vivid within 2 weeks of each other, we would be in FAR worse shape than we are now. OK. The collective has spoken. I have a layoff list ready to go. I'll let them know on Monday. I will abide by the collective rules. I'll learn to be callous to the youngs and disregard their future. All hail the doctors. Screw the economists. What do they know anyway? What do you think would happen to the economy is half of Americans needed hospitals and doctors at the same time? The economy would die completely. You couldn’t treat 400 million Americans at once. You act like the people whole are getting this just stay home with a cold until they are better. That is not the case for most of them, but even if it was, would you expect people who were sick to come to work anyways? If we go back to no quarantines, and take our chances, it’s a near certainty that we would be in worse shape than we are now. So, let’s say we do it your way. How do you treat 400,000,000 Americans at the same time?
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13492268
03/28/20 10:22 PM
|
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,936
John175☮
MACHO MAN
|
|
MACHO MAN
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,936 |
How long are you willing to stay in National lock-down? Give a timeline and what victory looks like.
3.5 million out of work and we toss them $1,200 for being a good sport. Give a timeline and exit strategy.
“Do not pray for easier lives. Pray to be stronger men.” -JFK
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: John175☮]
#13492271
03/28/20 10:30 PM
|
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 21,992
Caribou
TFF Guru
|
|
TFF Guru
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 21,992 |
How long are you willing to stay in National lock-down? Give a timeline and what victory looks like.
3.5 million out of work and we toss them $1,200 for being a good sport. Give a timeline and exit strategy. Sounds like most of the experts are saying May 1st or so we should be far enough ahead of it to start getting back to normal rules. We should have infrastructure in place by then the keep up. I think 5 more weeks of this would do less harm than ending it today and letting everybody get sick at one time. I think our current situation with the lockdowns might cause irreparable damage. I feel confident removing restrictions 100% destroys the economy. I think too many people think letting us all go back to work will save the economy. I think it holds a higher risk of destroying it. I answered your question, answer mine. How do we treat everybody if we let 4/5 people catch it within the next 2 weeks?
Last edited by Caribou; 03/28/20 10:32 PM.
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: Caribou]
#13492279
03/28/20 10:45 PM
|
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 25,752
elcoyote, esq.
TFF Guru
|
|
TFF Guru
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 25,752 |
The flu kills more people, but with a much lower death rate. Of everybody infected by the flu, less than .01% die from it. It’s FAR less lethal than Covid-19. People really need to stop comparing the 2. And these kinds of posts/email chain serve no purpose other than to make people think this is no big deal, and in turn will put themselves at risk. After all a “doctor” said it’s not even that bad. Your chicken little “the sky is falling” posts/ threads do nothing other than to cause more stupid people to panic. Who is doing a greater disservice? The OP, or you?
Team wolfs I had to perform. It took a minute to get it all in my mouth and another five to swallow it all.
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13492280
03/28/20 10:47 PM
|
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,387
Jpurdue
TFF Celebrity
|
|
TFF Celebrity
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,387 |
There is a great model in this article near the bottom. If you don't like the NYT I understand that, don't read a word in the article. It's the model at the bottom that's highly informative. It lets you adjust all the variables from R0 to hospitalization rate to how long we stay under "shelter in place." Adjust those how you see fit and then it'll show you how many get hospitalized and how many die. All models are wrong, but some models are useful. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...p-reopen-america.html?auth=linked-google
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L. www.LunkerLore.com
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13492283
03/28/20 10:50 PM
|
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 43,998
Tallgrass05
bill maher's protege
|
|
bill maher's protege
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 43,998 |
And the models run on data, which we need more of, which means testing, testing, testing. And the article states what I said earlier, "It is a false choice to say that we must accept the deaths of senior citizens to keep small businesses going."
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: Tallgrass05]
#13492286
03/28/20 10:54 PM
|
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,387
Jpurdue
TFF Celebrity
|
|
TFF Celebrity
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,387 |
And the models run on data, which we need more of, which means testing, testing, testing. And the article states what I said earlier, "It is a false choice to say that we must accept the deaths of senior citizens to keep small businesses going." I don't disagree there at all TG. They need aggressive testing of COVID-19, they need aggressive testing for the antibodies to see who's had it and has recovered. They also need large random samples of both so we can statistically nail down exactly what the situation is. The main driver in that model is R0, it matters far more than any other variable. We need to figure that out.
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L. www.LunkerLore.com
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13492289
03/28/20 10:57 PM
|
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 7,737
GIG'EM AGGIES
TFF Celebrity
|
|
TFF Celebrity
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 7,737 |
At my local Walmart yesterday I was amazed, flabbergasted, astounded, dismayed and utterly dumbfounded to see that only 3 other people besides myself were wearing mask and gloves. One older gentleman made a home made mask but at least he was trying. There were many couples with 3-4 kids roaming the isles and touching everything. I understand that mask and gloves aren't readily available but you don't have to take your whole family shopping with you. I get the impression that many think " oh, that won't happen to me ". Well it has and will. I was also semi-shocked that the employees working the deli weren't wearing mask or gloves.
Maybe I'm just over reacting.
I am a Senager. (Senior teenager) I have everything that I wanted as a teenager, only 50 years later. I get an allowance every month. I have PU truck and a bass boat, I am blessed.
Conscience never acquits, it either accuses or excuses.
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: GIG'EM AGGIES]
#13492297
03/28/20 11:03 PM
|
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,387
Jpurdue
TFF Celebrity
|
|
TFF Celebrity
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,387 |
At my local Walmart yesterday I was amazed, flabbergasted, astounded, dismayed and utterly dumbfounded to see that only 3 other people besides myself were wearing mask and gloves. One older gentleman made a home made mask but at least he was trying. There were many couples with 3-4 kids roaming the isles and touching everything. I understand that mask and gloves aren't readily available but you don't have to take your whole family shopping with you. I get the impression that many think " oh, that won't happen to me ". Well it has and will. I was also semi-shocked that the employees working the deli weren't wearing mask or gloves.
Maybe I'm just over reacting. I've been making a once per week grocery run. I wear an N95 and latex gloves. Today I was the only person in the store with a mask. It's not clear to me how much this PPE actually helps, but I've got to believe it offers at least some protection or doctors wouldn't wear them. I really hope this whole thing is over blown, but I plan to take as few chances as possible until we know for sure. As an FYI, when I get back to the truck I put my mask in a paper bag. I let it sit in there for 72 hours. Then during the week when I get a sunny day I bake it in the sun for 2 hours per side. UV light kills the virus. I have 10 masks, but using this method, I think I can keep reusing the masks for this sort of thing indefinitely. Call me crazy, but I thought I'd share my method for those interested. Stay safe!
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L. www.LunkerLore.com
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13492314
03/28/20 11:17 PM
|
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 12,040
soggybottom
TFF Guru
|
|
TFF Guru
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 12,040 |
First off, dont be childish. There is Always a monetary value on life. If only 1000 people were going to die would we shut the economy down? Of course not. Secondly, whats really happening? I think we are being lied to. H1n1 killed a lot more and what does testing do to save anyone? Your either sick or not sick.
pledge= fishstick
|
|
|
Re: A DOctor's perspective on the COVID 19
[Re: badgrandad]
#13492321
03/28/20 11:26 PM
|
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,910
Topwater2
TFF Team Angler
|
|
TFF Team Angler
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,910 |
Who has heard that the hardest hit and most deaths are people who are taking Vivid and Advil?
FishKen
|
|
Moderated by banker-always fishing, chickenman, Derek 🐝, Duck_Hunter, Fish Killer, J-2, Jacob, Jons3825, JustWingem, Nocona Brian, Toon-Troller, Uncle Zeek, Weekender1
|
