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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: Mark Perry]
#13485932
03/24/20 05:46 PM
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Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3,824
donothin
TFF Team Angler
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TFF Team Angler
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3,824 |
So many of the deniers are looking for absolutes. Doesn't happen very often in cases like these. You just have to go with the best probability for success. Not looking for absolutes, just looking for some leadership, common sense and prudence from our elected officials in charge of managing this crisis no matter what party they are part of. Absolutely agree!
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: Leonardo1]
#13485939
03/24/20 05:50 PM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,387
Jpurdue
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,387 |
+/- 40,000 confirmed cases. Less than .0001% of the population. They are only testing people with symptoms so the number of positive cases will continue to increase. The effects and aftermath is going to be real but I am fairly certain to this point the fear and reaction is manufactured. At what percentage of the population would you be concerned? Let us know your number and it's really easy math for us to figure out how many days it would take for us to get there if we just let this thing rip. The virus has demonstrated all over the globe it's able to double every three days when restrictions are not in place. So from our current count of 50,000 confirmed cases, (assuming there are zero other cases out there), if we just go back to normal it would infect half the population in less than a month.
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L. www.LunkerLore.com
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: Dave-0]
#13485946
03/24/20 05:52 PM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,387
Jpurdue
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 8,387 |
Haven't read all of it, but isn't Carnival donating a couple cruise ships on both/either coast to become hospital ships? There's an extra 5000 beds right there along with the Navy hospital ships. Which I think is great. One way on and off and make that a total decontamination room. It's not just beds you need, you need ICU beds with ventilators and trained staff. I mean a bed is better than the hallways like we see in Spain, but it's not an ICU bed.
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L. www.LunkerLore.com
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13485947
03/24/20 05:53 PM
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Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,733
JCG57
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 5,733 |
This is now a math problem involving probabilities and economics. At some point, the cost of saving additional lives by putting the economy into a self-induced coma exceeds the value of those lives. Hopefully the actions taken to date have slowed the spread of the virus enough to buy time to test effective therapeutics, significantly reducing the loss of life. I would like to see most regions in this country return to something closer to "normal" within two weeks (exceptions for hot spots which probably need to have stricter controls). And people do have the power to reduce the risk by altering behavior (distancing, hand washing, etc.). I'm not disagreeing with your overall point here, but what exactly is the dollar amount we plug in for the value of a human life? I do not know, but I know that economists have attempted this calculation. And without using a precise formula, the govt. will at some point start to open up the economy even though the virus is still at large, i.e., accepting some level of deaths. Which is worse to you: 20% unemployment or 100,000 deaths? Don't know if those figures are accurate or even directionally correct, but that is essentially what this all comes down to now.
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: Caribou]
#13485949
03/24/20 05:54 PM
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Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 9,367
bigfishtx
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 9,367 |
NY City stats show that 92% of the deaths had underlying conditions.
Not hard to see that the vulnerable and elderly need to be taken care of. So I wonder what the mortality rates look like when you take out the numbers of elderly or with underlying conditions that have died from this? You can’t ignore that group. That’s not how this works. They are part of the population who risk getting infected if we can’t slow this down. It doesn’t matter if I get sick. I will very likely be fine. But my wife’s grandmother lives with us. If I get sick, so does she, and she dies. Do the elderly’s lives have less value because they are closer to a natural death than the rest of us? Absolutely not, all lives are valuable. My point is, and has been since this fiasco started, was, protect the elderly and the vulnerable. That means you too if you share a roof with someone at risk. I hear your concern, and your case is not exclusive, there are lots of people taking care of their parents. My mother lives in my house, and if I was living there now, I'd be taking all kinds of precautions. The vast majority of the nation though does not fall into this category. There should be a coordinated push to isolate this at risk group. I can't imagine not being able to hug my Mother's neck, but if that's what it took to make sure she didn't catch anything, I'd do it. I don't have the answer, but for Pete's sake, what kind of common sense does it take to understand that someone at risk can catch this very easily and they need to really be taken care of? Lockdown is not the answer, that is unless you completely shut your door and don't leave. Every trip to the gas station, the grocery store, the pharmacy, you're potentially exposed to this virus.
Keep the Lord in your heart and keep your powder dry. 5:5
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: T Bird]
#13485955
03/24/20 05:57 PM
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 25,752
elcoyote, esq.
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 25,752 |
I’ve never been much of a fan of Lt. Gov. Bucee Beaver, but I like what he had to say today. Get rid of the olds!
Team wolfs I had to perform. It took a minute to get it all in my mouth and another five to swallow it all.
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: elcoyote, esq.]
#13485960
03/24/20 06:00 PM
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Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 5,520
Bruce's
TFF Celebrity
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TFF Celebrity
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 5,520 |
I’ve never been much of a fan of Lt. Gov. Bucee Beaver, but I like what he had to say today. Get rid of the olds! Yea lets start by making all the 50 and under carry all the old bodies to the morgue without protection. After all they are bullet proof, and we dont need to waste out medical resources on them. 50 and under
Bruce's Sprinkler Repair 817-798-7246 52 years experience State Licensed Irrigation LI0017483
Fishing Texas lakes one at a time
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: Icepick]
#13485964
03/24/20 06:02 PM
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Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,934
John175☮
MACHO MAN
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MACHO MAN
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 85,934 |
Do you think it's as bad as the normal flu that we just went thru, which killed many more thousands this year?
According to Doctor Anthony Fauci, an infectious disease specialist who's served under 4 Republican presidents and 2 democrats, it's 10 times worse than the normal flu. That makes it a 1% death rate. If you are in the high risk category and going out you put yourself at risk. YOU put yourself at risk. You're not at risk because of me going about my life. You volunteer to take the 15% mortality chance on your own. Right now I'd rather take my 1% chance and go about life but I can't, because the 15% risk people want the playing field of life level. If you don't want to go out because you fear COVID-19 then stay home and screen your visitors. Anyone who wants to go out should be able to do so. This sets a nasty and dangerous precedent. All levels of government are putting citizens under house arrest with allowances to go out for a list of government approved reasons.
“Do not pray for easier lives. Pray to be stronger men.” -JFK
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: T Bird]
#13485965
03/24/20 06:03 PM
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Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 18,123
COFF
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 18,123 |
Stupid idea but if everyone intentionally got it now, those at very low risk, the disease would be much easier to isolate in a month. Knowing they had it and getting care to boost the immune system, I would bet the mortality rate could be under .2% and free up 70% of the people.
This is pretty much the way I see it. I just don't understand the effectiveness of the measures we are currently taking. We are slowing the spread, but not stopping it. No matter how long we continue with our half*** lockdowns, when we resume normal business the virus will likely still be there. It will start again from the beginning and this will all just repeat itself. I am not doctor, but it seems to me that the most effective thing we can do is strict quarantine of olds and asthmatics. Protect the "at risk" groups, while letting the virus run its course. Healthy individuals will eventually develop antibodies against the virus (or doctors will develop a vaccine) and that will be what actually ends the threat.
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: elcoyote, esq.]
#13485987
03/24/20 06:17 PM
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Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,801
gregpaul
Extreme Angler
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Extreme Angler
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,801 |
I’ve never been much of a fan of Lt. Gov. Bucee Beaver, but I like what he had to say today. Get rid of the olds! Including your kid’s grandparents right? If they only knew...
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: T Bird]
#13485996
03/24/20 06:29 PM
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 12,040
soggybottom
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 12,040 |
What are yall are always bashing on the poor, so your gonna destroy the US ecomony over this? Throw thousands of people into the street when they cant pay their rent and then what? Are you gonna then tell them to " pull themselves up by the invisible boot straps" a level of death rate is what its going to cost just like always.
pledge= fishstick
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: Jpurdue]
#13486031
03/24/20 06:52 PM
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Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 3,170
Leonardo1
TFF Team Angler
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TFF Team Angler
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 3,170 |
+/- 40,000 confirmed cases. Less than .0001% of the population. They are only testing people with symptoms so the number of positive cases will continue to increase. The effects and aftermath is going to be real but I am fairly certain to this point the fear and reaction is manufactured. At what percentage of the population would you be concerned? Let us know your number and it's really easy math for us to figure out how many days it would take for us to get there if we just let this thing rip. The virus has demonstrated all over the globe it's able to double every three days when restrictions are not in place. So from our current count of 50,000 confirmed cases, (assuming there are zero other cases out there), if we just go back to normal it would infect half the population in less than a month. I am really not sure, but I will pay attention at 1%. We are concerned about stressing the medical facilities and that is concerning. Are we that unprepared? We are setting a precedent and showing some real vulnerability as a Nation. This virus has plateaued or substantially slowed down in these other countries. I don't believe the numbers for China but Italy has around 60 million and Spain 47 million. They are hovering around 10% and have been for the last several days with marginal increases. So I don't think infecting half of the population is a reality. I also don't truly understand the social distancing. Everyone is bombarding the grocery stores putting more people in one place than normal. I am in favor of being responsible. Good hygiene, if your high risk be more cautious, ect.. but I don't need anyone to tell me that, especially the government.
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: T Bird]
#13486064
03/24/20 07:14 PM
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Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3,824
donothin
TFF Team Angler
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TFF Team Angler
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3,824 |
I think, EPA or whomever, allows for a death rate of a very small percentage when approving certain standards for such things as water quality, air quality, perhaps even for the approval for pesticides and other chemicals. I don't think they have ever been very comfortable with it, but realize the necessity. We could apply the same principle here, but by the scientist and not the politicians.
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: Leonardo1]
#13486089
03/24/20 07:28 PM
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 10,831
rj74955
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 10,831 |
+/- 40,000 confirmed cases. Less than .0001% of the population. They are only testing people with symptoms so the number of positive cases will continue to increase. The effects and aftermath is going to be real but I am fairly certain to this point the fear and reaction is manufactured. At what percentage of the population would you be concerned? Let us know your number and it's really easy math for us to figure out how many days it would take for us to get there if we just let this thing rip. The virus has demonstrated all over the globe it's able to double every three days when restrictions are not in place. So from our current count of 50,000 confirmed cases, (assuming there are zero other cases out there), if we just go back to normal it would infect half the population in less than a month. I am really not sure, but I will pay attention at 1%. We are concerned about stressing the medical facilities and that is concerning. Are we that unprepared? We are setting a precedent and showing some real vulnerability as a Nation. This virus has plateaued or substantially slowed down in these other countries. I don't believe the numbers for China but Italy has around 60 million and Spain 47 million. They are hovering around 10% and have been for the last several days with marginal increases. So I don't think infecting half of the population is a reality. I also don't truly understand the social distancing. Everyone is bombarding the grocery stores putting more people in one place than normal. I am in favor of being responsible. Good hygiene, if your high risk be more cautious, ect.. but I don't need anyone to tell me that, especially the government. Excellent. And probably exactly how most feel.
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Re: Did I really hear what he said?
[Re: T Bird]
#13486095
03/24/20 07:33 PM
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 10,036
Spiderman
TFF Guru
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TFF Guru
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 10,036 |
The Truth is six of the seven Dwarfs are not Happy!
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