Couple of days old, water has peaked....for the moment, I did confirm today that Outlaw Outdoor's Sweet 16 is ON for Sunday. Catch 16 lbs get a check, now I just gotta figure out how to catch 16 lbs!!!!

Good Info Ken!!

We went down into the overflow in 1997 before it was completed during the ice storm that shut down 255. The channel leaving the overflow pond is maybe 4ft wide and concrete bottom. The rest of the channel is grass as stated. It would begin to flow out into the channel then the drainage creek under letney Rd immediately if water comes over at 176. Hard to imagine either letney or 255 not washing out unless it's literally an inch of water coming over.

Ken- Enjoyed the video as always but I don't think the spillway is 2200 feet as mentioned. Google Earth has it more like 650ft.

Like you I don't see them letting it go over the spillway.

Just checked the COE site. Both generators running 24 hours plus 9018 cfs being released. So they are starting to draw it down some.

Ya 650 seems about right. I've been down there a few times. That pond is only a couple acres

Looks like they are getting more rain. May find out exactly how that spillway works.

After seeing the bridge damage to the 103 I bet they try and get it down pretty quick if they can. The 147 might have a little too and with a bunch of north wind days coming it will only get worse

Yesterday corp released up to 19000 cfs, currently releasing a little over 9000 cfs. Area received steady rain from 10 pm till 7 am sometimes heavy. Sam Rayburn lake level is slowly falling, very slow fall.

Long term issue here is gonna be corp operated ramps. From what I understand, the water level at some of the ramps may be compromising the underlying support for those ramps. I know Twin Dykes has some major damage already. Despite what most believe, most of these ramps are not "solid". They are slabs that are simply slid into place on top of packed clay and sediment. If the lake dropped 2-3 feet today, and there was NO DAMAGE to the ramp, the public ramp would remain closed for another 2 weeks to "dry out". Corps will reopen in reverse order of closures, so public would be the first to open "IF" the lake were 2.5 feet lower than it is presently. In a perfect world of dropping 3 inches a day (no rain), and the two week drying period, we are looking at 25-30 days before it could possibly re open and that would be the FIRST one. Other ramps like San Augustine closed at 167, so ramps like those would be looking at a minimum of 35 days to get back to 167 + 2 weeks for drying, and that is in a perfect scenario of no rain and no damage.

Dam B is the key here. Just recently, it has "caught up" and the water has been flowing from Rayburn, but let DAM B catch some local runoff from its tributaries like last night's rains, and the gates on Rayburn close or slow down considerably. As long as Dam B can take the water, Rayburn will send it and we should see some very slow drainage.

The neches flows directly into dam b after it connects with the Angelina below Rayburn. There's a lot of water coming into dam b without rayburns flow. It's not as easy as opening the gates at Rayburn and dropping it. Lots of variables have to line up before they can let water out in these conditions

Correct Jaret. It is not only the corps involved here. Lower Neches Valley Authority has a lot to do with what goes on at the Sam Rayburn Dam as well. I think a lot of folk don't realize how much the Neches plays into situations like this because they dont associate the Neches River with Rayburn.

Passed over the Neches on US 69 south of Zavalla Saturday as the front was hitting (went to Lufkin) and she was running pretty full. Not sure how flooded the lower Neches watershed is (below Dam B to Beaumont ). I know when I check my weather on TWC website I get a county river flood warning for Tyler County:

"THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NECHES RIVER NEAR DIBOLL, TEXAS. * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 9:15 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.5 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.8 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING. * IMPACT...CONTINUED MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF JANUARY. "

Good report Ray. I had not seen that. The very last sentence says it all. One way or another, a lot of water is coming down for the next 10 or so days.

The Angelina River at 59N, between Lufkin and Nacogdoches, has come back up some.

It had never gotten back inside it's banks although it had dropped a good bit.

We got 2.25" at home, in Lufkin, and 2" at work in Nacogdoches last night / this morning.