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Jan 23rd, 2013
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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: John175®] #12670702
03/13/18 04:45 PM
03/13/18 04:45 PM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 25,862
Rowlett,Liquor City,Texas
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Bob Davis Online content
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Joined: May 2002
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Originally Posted By: John175®
One thing I've learned about computer simulations is that I can make them show anything I want with a simple change in a line of code.
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue

Turns out these sorts of truly chance events have more of an impact on wealth than hard work. So says the computer simulation anyway.


True if you can control the variables. In Circuit design simulators, most of the variables are set. You can change from a weak to a strong model but within process margins, but that is about it.



Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670874
03/13/18 06:13 PM
03/13/18 06:13 PM
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 2,223
The Mound
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Sawhorse Online content
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The Mound
Malcolm Gladwell’s book “Outliers” is an entertaining, fact-based look at the impact of luck, intelligence, hard work - and the achievement of greatness. If you’re truly interested in this topic, I strongly recommend that you check it out. Has a GREAT take on the idea that “10,000 Hours” appears to be a tipping point relative to greatness.

One Example Only - Bill Gates
Outlier’s discusses the role “chance” or “luck” played in what Bill Gates has achieved (technologically and his wealth). Gates came from “the right family”, is intelligent, has a strong work ethic...but at an early age he just happened to have near-unlimited access (because of where he lived, where the mainframe was located and a connection...etc.) to a mainframe - at a time when pc’s and laptops were unheard of. Because of that, he was able to put in his “10,000 hrs” - and the rest is history.

Very very cool book!

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12671047
03/13/18 07:42 PM
03/13/18 07:42 PM
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,503
KRUM, TEXAS
J
J-SPENCER Offline
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Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,503
KRUM, TEXAS
The harder you work, the luckier you get.


www.spencersautorepair.com

some men know the price of everything and the value of nothing
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Bob Davis] #12671224
03/13/18 09:50 PM
03/13/18 09:50 PM
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 69,824
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In this case it is easy to control the variables.

If the polling is off by a small percentage any direction the entire simulation is off.

The data must have been gathered by a poll of some sort via interviews which can be twisted severely. Never heard someone down on their luck blame themselves for the state they are in...more likely it will be this that or the other thing happened. I got sick and didn't have insurance. My boss fired me because of something outside of my control. You get the idea. Those stories were a part of the whole analysis and there's not a way to find out whether there is any truth in the narratives. Who is going to challenge the assertions? Who is going to research the "unlucky" stories? On the other hand the successful folks are more likely to lay out the truth behind how they succeeded. "Unlucky" types are less likely to do the same. It's human nature to deflect blame. If just a handful of bad narratives make it into the study the whole output is skewed into the coin toss theory.

Originally Posted By: Bob Davis
Originally Posted By: John175®
One thing I've learned about computer simulations is that I can make them show anything I want with a simple change in a line of code.
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue

Turns out these sorts of truly chance events have more of an impact on wealth than hard work. So says the computer simulation anyway.


True if you can control the variables. In Circuit design simulators, most of the variables are set. You can change from a weak to a strong model but within process margins, but that is about it.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12671409
03/14/18 12:36 AM
03/14/18 12:36 AM
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 27,264
Krum, TX
Moto-Moto Offline
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Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 27,264
Krum, TX
I create my own luck.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: John175®] #12671513
03/14/18 01:42 AM
03/14/18 01:42 AM
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 25,862
Rowlett,Liquor City,Texas
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Bob Davis Online content
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Joined: May 2002
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Originally Posted By: John175®
In this case it is easy to control the variables.

If the polling is off by a small percentage any direction the entire simulation is off.

The data must have been gathered by a poll of some sort via interviews which can be twisted severely. Never heard someone down on their luck blame themselves for the state they are in...more likely it will be this that or the other thing happened. I got sick and didn't have insurance. My boss fired me because of something outside of my control. You get the idea. Those stories were a part of the whole analysis and there's not a way to find out whether there is any truth in the narratives. Who is going to challenge the assertions? Who is going to research the "unlucky" stories? On the other hand the successful folks are more likely to lay out the truth behind how they succeeded. "Unlucky" types are less likely to do the same. It's human nature to deflect blame. If just a handful of bad narratives make it into the study the whole output is skewed into the coin toss theory.


Got it. Agree with your assessment John.



Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: J-SPENCER] #12671527
03/14/18 01:49 AM
03/14/18 01:49 AM
Joined: Aug 2008
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Texas
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Originally Posted By: J-SPENCER
The harder you work, the luckier you get.

Perhaps you and I have lived very different lives or grew up in very, very different neighborhoods. But I can tell you in all honesty that if I have learned anything in this life, it is that that is not even close to being true.


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12671545
03/14/18 01:59 AM
03/14/18 01:59 AM
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,752
921 Phoenix Online content
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Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
Originally Posted By: J-SPENCER
The harder you work, the luckier you get.

Perhaps you and I have lived very different lives or grew up in very, very different neighborhoods. But I can tell you in all honesty that if I have learned anything in this life, it is that that is not even close to being true.


one thing I have leaned in life is this attitude will make you a loser. Winners get up and keep trying till they succeed loser keep playing the lottery hoping to get lucky

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