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Jan 23rd, 2013
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The role of luck in success and failure #12668424
03/12/18 12:41 PM
03/12/18 12:41 PM
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Jpurdue Offline OP
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Here's a potentially contentious study. It used computer models to show becoming wealthy has far more to do with luck than with talent or hard work. It is a bit uncomfortable to think about, but I generally tend to agree. Some of the wealthiest folks I know aren't the smartest or the hardest working. They were in the right place at the right time, or had the right connections.

I think hard work goes a long way, but you can be the hardest worker in the world and get cancer at 32 and wind up broke. Conversely you can be dumb as a box of rocks, but use daddy's business connections to land a six figure job.

Discuss.

Link to study


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668433
03/12/18 12:46 PM
03/12/18 12:46 PM
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White Settlement, TX.
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ibtmttb



Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668434
03/12/18 12:47 PM
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So the old saying, "The harder I work, the luckier I get" may not be an accurate statement?



Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668439
03/12/18 12:52 PM
03/12/18 12:52 PM
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I don't believe in luck. I lean more towards a heavenly purpose. Blessings are how I would refer to a comfortable living through ones hard work. Then, couple that with generosity and benevolence. There is some reason for that traffic jam that makes us late for an appointment. I'm a believer.



Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668443
03/12/18 12:54 PM
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That's like saying graduating from Cornell is more luck than anything else.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Hancock] #12668450
03/12/18 12:58 PM
03/12/18 12:58 PM
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I would rather be lucky than good any day. thumb Movers and shakers usually do pretty well in life.


Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668453
03/12/18 12:59 PM
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Half or more scientific discoveries are attributed to luck.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Hancock] #12668454
03/12/18 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted By: Hancock
That's like saying graduating from Cornell is more luck than anything else.


Maybe not the graduating but possibly the circumstances that lead someone to be accepted to Cornell and to pay for it.




Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668464
03/12/18 01:10 PM
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I certainly think hard work can improve your odds, but in terms of being a predictive measure of success, hard work apparently isn't all that meaningful. That's a tough pill to swallow. I struggle with it, but I think it's probably true. Not sure what we do with that knowledge. I don't think it should really change anything about the way our society is set up.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668470
03/12/18 01:18 PM
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I have been lucky fishing......but I could have been luckier!


You can avoid having ulcers by adapting to the situation: If you fall in the mud puddle, check your pockets for fish. ~Unknown

Open your eyes & look within, are you satisfied with the life you´re living.

No matter how good or bad you have it, wake up each day thankful for your life. Someone somewhere else is desperately fighting for theirs.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668488
03/12/18 01:31 PM
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If someone truly does not think hard work and determination are not keys to success then so be it. I have seen far too much firsthand that contradicts that study. Hard work, determination, and the power of chasing a dream cannot be measured by a computer.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Mark Perry] #12668502
03/12/18 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted By: Mark Perry
If someone truly does not think hard work and determination are not keys to success then so be it. I have seen far too much firsthand that contradicts that study. Hard work, determination, and the power of chasing a dream cannot be measured by a computer.


What percentages of business start ups fail? Were those people not hard working dream chasers? I'm not sharing this study to discourage anyone. And by all means, I fully believe you should work hard. In terms of things you can control, there is zero doubt in my mind it matters a great deal. That said, the study shows the things you can't control matter more.

In all probability we would have never heard the name Bill Gates if he hadn't been born exactly when and where he was. He was born right at the start of the computer age and within a few blocks of one of two super computers that were open to public access at the time. This access sparked his interest in code. No doubt he's a hard worker, but if he was born in Indiana he would not have founded Microsoft.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668510
03/12/18 01:44 PM
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"Luck" is not defined in the paper.

"Success" is defined as getting rich. You'll have more "Luck" getting rich by adhering to social norms of the "rich", making good decisions and finding an environment in which you have a higher probability of meeting and socializing with people who have the funds to assist with your "success Luck". There are so many things that come into play the paper didn't even touch on. One thing they left out that I have found in most of the "Rich" people I know is their focus, commitment and sheer will to succeed. "No" to them wasn't the end of the dream it was simply a trigger to address the concerns and repackage the product and pitch to that person and try again. If you accept the no...is that being unlucky? I don't know any "Rich Lucky" people who will toss money at someone without testing the individuals resolve. They'll say no to a great idea just to see if the individual has the determination to make it a yes. The "Lucky" have people pitching scams to them all the time. They don't gamble the money they've earned. Getting "Rich" is only the first half of it...staying "Rich" is just as hard. It takes as much focus, commitment and sheer will to stay "Lucky" as you put in getting "Lucky."

IMO the bottom line of "Luck" is that it is shaped by a life of good decisions, following social norms and surrounding yourself with people who actively work towards getting "Rich Lucky"...but there are those who just happen to be in the right place at the right time. Few of them. I wouldn't base a business plan or investment strategy on getting "Lucky" and I don't think many "Lucky" people do.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668512
03/12/18 01:44 PM
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when it comes to tournament fishing,seems to me that when it's your day to win,you'll win and when it ain't your day,you won't win.....
that's not to say you don't even need to practice or be a very good fisherman...typically in a tournament of any size,you will have several good fishermen in a position to win and two or three guys lost a fish that would have won it for them.....

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668521
03/12/18 01:48 PM
03/12/18 01:48 PM
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Denton County
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I would like to get lucky with that little red head lady who works at the Kroger... you know the one I am talking about... in Flo Mo. She does the flowers and stuff I think. Wait what are we talking about here? Chris Cornell? Black Hole Sun wont you come...


Originally Posted By: junbengreat
Pulled a gun on his dryer and they caught a bunch of fish.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Hancock] #12668524
03/12/18 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted By: Hancock
Half or more scientific discoveries are attributed to luck.


+1

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668531
03/12/18 01:55 PM
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Agree John. Lots of potential problems with the study. It also doesn't define rich. Million bucks? 10 Million? 100 million? Billion plus?

The main thing it points out is that hard work and intelligence seem to be more common in the general population than wealth. And luck isn't just good things that happen to people but also bad things. Sickness, bad timing, unscrupulous actors, even when your parents die matters.

The book Outliers also looks into this. Turns out professional athletes are disproportionately older than their classmates growing up. This is tied back to when in the year they happened to be born. If your birthday made you one of the older kids in the class, you were on average a little bigger, little faster, etc... than your peers. Coaches notice this and paid a little more attention to you. This bred confidence and created a positive feedback loop that ultimately increased the odds of athletic success. Just an example of how "luck" could play into success.

Last edited by Jpurdue; 03/12/18 01:57 PM.

"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668533
03/12/18 01:55 PM
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Jack County
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Nothing more lucky than peep


Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668534
03/12/18 01:56 PM
03/12/18 01:56 PM
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A very important consideration here is:

CHOICES


You bettcha!

oofta!
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Trebor Neil] #12668540
03/12/18 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted By: Trebor Neil
A very important consideration here is:

CHOICES


This exactly!

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668547
03/12/18 02:03 PM
03/12/18 02:03 PM
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if you are at the top of your industry
you got there by hard work

the next step is where luck comes in

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Moto-Moto] #12668555
03/12/18 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted By: Moto-Moto
Originally Posted By: Trebor Neil
A very important consideration here is:

CHOICES


This exactly!


Yep. If people hadn't worked hard and made the right choices they wouldn't have been in a position to take advantage of opportunity.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668581
03/12/18 02:18 PM
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Cross the road from Wieland Ce...
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Good luck is recognizing an opportunity when it arises.


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I know a little about a lot of things but not a whole lot about anything....CGD
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668583
03/12/18 02:22 PM
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I don't believe in the luck thing, but having the right connections is at least as important as skill and/or hard work. One of the reasons the rich get richer.

Last edited by joebass2; 03/12/18 02:22 PM.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668589
03/12/18 02:29 PM
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I would characterize myself as reasonably successful. Particularly for my age. I believe I'm a hard worker, but I also recognize the role luck has played. My first job was a game changer for me. The only reason I got it was because I happened to be dating a gal at Purdue who lived in Texas. The only reason I applied for that job was because it was headquartered out of Texas near this gal. The gals gone, but I am still in the same industry.

I also like to say I've made a million bucks playing poker. Not in winnings, but I've played a lot of home games with executives that have wound up resulting in very good relationships which has lead to a whole bunch of promotions over the years. If I hadn't been interested in poker, I truly believe many of those doors would not have been opened. Luck? Maybe.

So anyway. Yes, 100% believe in hard work, but I also recognize the role luck has played. I've also been blessed with reasonably good health.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668608
03/12/18 02:41 PM
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Luck is often the marriage of opportunity with preparation.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668609
03/12/18 02:42 PM
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I don't believe in luck. I believe in hard work and following God's leadership, he opens and shuts doors

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668624
03/12/18 02:47 PM
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Chance favors the prepared mind.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668663
03/12/18 03:07 PM
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A very good book that addresses some of the issues brought up in the study is "Talent Is Overrated: What Really Separates World-Class Performers from Everybody Else" by Geoff Colvin. I have the audible book and it does present some interesting perspectives.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668678
03/12/18 03:13 PM
03/12/18 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Mark Perry
If someone truly does not think hard work and determination are not keys to success then so be it. I have seen far too much firsthand that contradicts that study. Hard work, determination, and the power of chasing a dream cannot be measured by a computer.


What percentages of business start ups fail? Were those people not hard working dream chasers? I'm not sharing this study to discourage anyone. And by all means, I fully believe you should work hard. In terms of things you can control, there is zero doubt in my mind it matters a great deal. That said, the study shows the things you can't control matter more.

In all probability we would have never heard the name Bill Gates if he hadn't been born exactly when and where he was. He was born right at the start of the computer age and within a few blocks of one of two super computers that were open to public access at the time. This access sparked his interest in code. No doubt he's a hard worker, but if he was born in Indiana he would not have founded Microsoft.


Some might say Bill Gates benefited from fate, destiny or chance and hard work. Life isn’t fair, being in the right place at the right time is huge, knowing the right people can help, but it still takes hard work for the vast majority of the people that are successful.

You’re right, Gates benefited from the time he was born and growing up down the street from a place that had super computers open to the public and needed people to code. He still put in countless hours learning to code and then applying that learned knowledge to building an empire.

I don't consider that aspect of his life (being born at the right time and location) luck. I think he had some luck along the way, but it was taking some chances as he built Microsoft and the ball bounced his way.

I agree with Jacob, though. How did the study define luck? Without a definition (and depending on the definition) it’s hard to agree with the study’s findings.


[Linked Image]
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668679
03/12/18 03:13 PM
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Of course there's luck involved. Mark Zuckberg came up with a simple, straightforward idea of essentially making an online phone book of people with their pictures on it. And boom - a few years later, he becomes one of the richest human beings in the history of the universe.

I'm not taking away from this kid, but there are millions of people out there who have "worked harder" than him, tried out countless ideas that didn't happen to make it, or possibly even got better grades than him (I wonder where he ranked in his class?). The point is, you can stumble upon something and luck yourself into billions.

If "hard work" were the answer, then I think a good 60% of the American population would be millionaires.

What freaks me out are those fantasy daydreamers who claim every rich person "made the right decisions" and "just worked hard." That is farcical and patently ridiculous.


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668691
03/12/18 03:19 PM
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Consider also the role of "lucking out" in the area of genetics. I'm sorry folks, but none of us can plop ourselves into the gym for a few hours a week and end up being able to play basketball like Lebron James, Michael Jordan or Kobie Bryant. They were born with some kind of special genetic code that had them wired for the extremely technical-physical movements required for basketball success.


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668700
03/12/18 03:24 PM
03/12/18 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Here's a potentially contentious study. It used computer models to show becoming wealthy has far more to do with luck than with talent or hard work. It is a bit uncomfortable to think about, but I generally tend to agree. Some of the wealthiest folks I know aren't the smartest or the hardest working. They were in the right place at the right time, or had the right connections.

I think hard work goes a long way, but you can be the hardest worker in the world and get cancer at 32 and wind up broke. Conversely you can be dumb as a box of rocks, but use daddy's business connections to land a six figure job.

Discuss.

Link to study


Next time you're coming to DFW, you're welcome to stop by my office for lunch (I'll cook some coho salmon). That'll give me 45 minutes to an hour to bend your ear on the topic. grin


"Decency is not news; it is buried in the obituaries --but it is a force stronger than crime" ~ Robert A. Heinlein, 1952

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668706
03/12/18 03:26 PM
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Or those who benefitted from being implanted with excellent social intelligence (if you don't believe this is a thing, read on the psychologist Gardner and his theory of multiple intelligences). These folks can work crowds, interact with others extremely well, socialize and gain benefits this way - far better than what a person born without those skills can do. Think of politicians.

Or musical intelligence. Did Whitney Houston, Katy Perry, George Strait, etc. just "work hard" or were thy born with better voices than the the rest of us?


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668710
03/12/18 03:28 PM
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I would like to see a study on social intelligence, I strongly suspect it may have enormous predictive ability.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12668711
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Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
Consider also the role of "lucking out" in the area of genetics. I'm sorry folks, but none of us can plop ourselves into the gym for a few hours a week and end up being able to play basketball like Lebron James, Michael Jordan or Kobie Bryant. They were born with some kind of special genetic code that had them wired for the extremely technical-physical movements required for basketball success.



true
Prince Harry & Andrew also
imagine what they have been through

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668717
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If your other half isn't on the same page as you most of your hard work is just pizzed in the wind.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668727
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An excellent example are sports broadcasters. Chris Berman, Bob Costas, Chris Collinsworth, and on and on. Do these folks really have some unique, special "earned" talent than the rest of us? Or do they just happen to have vocal chords set up in such a way that their voices have a louder and more unique pitch? These folks make millions because of this.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668753
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I will still say its more about hard work. Heard a wise man once say "when you want something as bad as you want to breathe" you will be successful. Luck does not do a damn thing for you when you have failed time and again but still keep on pushing and finally reaching your goal. Luck does not stop you from giving up, luck does not fuel that fire inside of you and luck ain't paying the bills to keep the lights on either.

I would never suggest someone like Gates got "lucky". He saw a way to chase a dream, made it happen and the rest is history. He saw a need, he filled that need and in the process I am sure he took a beating along the way on many fronts.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12668779
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No. You gave a horrible example.

They have their jobs and million dollar paychecks because they have intimate knowledge of the game and can "bring-it" week in and week out regardless of who is on the field. Their TV/Radio voice can be learned and trained if needed. Try not to simplify everything down to some genetic trait or you end up casting out those who you deem not genetically capable. Some people really need to stop focusing on such things and look for skills and determination to succeed. There are millions of people with great TV/Radio voices that work in jobs other than entertainment.

Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
An excellent example are sports broadcasters. Chris Berman, Bob Costas, Chris Collinsworth, and on and on. Do these folks really have some unique, special "earned" talent than the rest of us? Or do they just happen to have vocal chords set up in such a way that their voices have a louder and more unique pitch? These folks make millions because of this.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668797
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
I would characterize myself as reasonably successful. Particularly for my age. I believe I'm a hard worker, but I also recognize the role luck has played. My first job was a game changer for me. The only reason I got it was because I happened to be dating a gal at Purdue who lived in Texas. The only reason I applied for that job was because it was headquartered out of Texas near this gal. The gals gone, but I am still in the same industry.

I also like to say I've made a million bucks playing poker. Not in winnings, but I've played a lot of home games with executives that have wound up resulting in very good relationships which has lead to a whole bunch of promotions over the years. If I hadn't been interested in poker, I truly believe many of those doors would not have been opened. Luck? Maybe.

So anyway. Yes, 100% believe in hard work, but I also recognize the role luck has played. I've also been blessed with reasonably good health.


As above: CHOICES!!!!!!!


You bettcha!

oofta!
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: John175®] #12668841
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Originally Posted By: John175®
No. You gave a horrible example.

They have their jobs and million dollar paychecks because they have intimate knowledge of the game and can "bring-it" week in and week out regardless of who is on the field. Their TV/Radio voice can be learned and trained if needed. Try not to simplify everything down to some genetic trait or you end up casting out those who you deem not genetically capable. Some people really need to stop focusing on such things and look for skills and determination to succeed. There are millions of people with great TV/Radio voices that work in jobs other than entertainment. .


Beethoven, Wagner, Mozart? They didn't have a special kind of musical intelligence?

Bobby Fischer, Kasparov, that Magnus kid? You don't think they have some inherent mental-brain advantage allowing them to play chess the way they do?

Usain Bolt, Justin Gatlin, Jesse Owens? They weren't born with something enhancing their running ability, or just ran more laps than the rest of us in high school?

And on and on and on. Face it, some people were born into or raised with an advantage.


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12668864
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I don't get your point. You are fixated on genetics. I've know tall people who couldn't play B-ball worth a hoot...nor did they have an interest in it. I've know short people who didn't want to become jockeys. I've know beautiful women who had no interest in being a movie star. I've know people with angelic voices with no interest in singing beyond the pew in a church. If you are [censored]-Wee Herman and want to play in the NBA then you need to brace yourself for disappointment...the adult in your life needs to guide you into something else. Genetics play a role in selecting what you should persue but has very little in determining if you will be successful.

Do you have bad genetics or are you arguing people who don't have the genetics to do anything they want is somehow unfair?

Are genetics luck or selective breeding?

This is the most inane path of discourse I've heard in a long-long time. BTW...at one point in my life I had a paraplegic manager. She was excellent. In your "genetics" world she would never had been given the chance.

Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
Originally Posted By: John175®
No. You gave a horrible example.

They have their jobs and million dollar paychecks because they have intimate knowledge of the game and can "bring-it" week in and week out regardless of who is on the field. Their TV/Radio voice can be learned and trained if needed. Try not to simplify everything down to some genetic trait or you end up casting out those who you deem not genetically capable. Some people really need to stop focusing on such things and look for skills and determination to succeed. There are millions of people with great TV/Radio voices that work in jobs other than entertainment. .


Beethoven, Wagner, Mozart? They didn't have a special kind of musical intelligence?

Bobby Fischer, Kasparov, that Magnus kid? You don't think they have some inherent mental-brain advantage allowing them to play chess the way they do?

Usain Bolt, Justin Gatlin, Jesse Owens? They weren't born with something enhancing their running ability, or just ran more laps than the rest of us in high school?

And on and on and on. Face it, some people were born into or raised with an advantage.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668873
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Right place, right time and sense to see potential.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: John175®] #12668895
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Originally Posted By: John175®
I don't get your point.

My point is that wealth does not equate to "merit" or "hard work" or whatever fantasy-myth buzz word you want to use. In some cases, the rich got there by pure dumb luck, favoritism/nepotism, inheritance, fraud/illegality, or were bolstered by genetic/inherent/environmental factors. In some cases, yes, there was the good ole' fashioned rags-to-riches tales of people starting from nothing and becoming millionaires by simply working hard. Unfortunately, many people see nothing but the latter cases and not enough of the former cases. Life is not as simple as you want it to be.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12668907
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And there are stories of rich people's kids that die from drug overdose, car crashes, suicide and any long list of tragic deaths.

Do you think having rich parents is the key to success? Your point is pointless. Deal with the life you're dealt. That's how simple life is and life has nothing to do with being fat, short, rich, poor, stupid or smart. Life is what you make of it and if you envy others it's your choice but I can tell you it will consume you and make your life miserable. Others won't want to hang with you and especially the successful types. You'll create your own bitter cocoon.

Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
Originally Posted By: John175®
I don't get your point.

My point is that wealth does not equate to "merit" or "hard work" or whatever fantasy-myth buzz word you want to use. In some cases, the rich got there by pure dumb luck, favoritism/nepotism, inheritance, fraud/illegality, or were bolstered by genetic/inherent/environmental factors. In some cases, yes, there was the good ole' fashioned rags-to-riches tales of people starting from nothing and becoming millionaires by simply working hard. Unfortunately, many people see nothing but the latter cases and not enough of the former cases. Life is not as simple as you want it to be.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668928
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Before we can decide if luck or genetics is more important, don't we need to decide what success really is? Is it financial, happiness, health, or a combination of them all. hmmm

Ok, I just went back and read the whole thread. Success as defined as financial success. I would say its a combination of hard work, good legal advice, and luck.

Last edited by lconn4; 03/12/18 05:02 PM.

A good rule of angling philosphy is not to interfere with another fisherman's ways of being happy, unless you want to be hated.

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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668938
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don't believe in luck.... only blessings from above.



Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668939
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in athletics
in breeding race horses & prize bulls
genetics is the major factor

Doug Flutie & a couple of others would be an exception
but if your parents don't produce a child that will weigh 300 lbs
you will not be a lineman in the NFL

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Arkansas10 bass] #12668942
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Originally Posted By: Arkansas10 bass
Right place, right time and sense to see potential.


this is good also

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12668957
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Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
Originally Posted By: John175®
No. You gave a horrible example.

They have their jobs and million dollar paychecks because they have intimate knowledge of the game and can "bring-it" week in and week out regardless of who is on the field. Their TV/Radio voice can be learned and trained if needed. Try not to simplify everything down to some genetic trait or you end up casting out those who you deem not genetically capable. Some people really need to stop focusing on such things and look for skills and determination to succeed. There are millions of people with great TV/Radio voices that work in jobs other than entertainment. .


Beethoven, Wagner, Mozart? They didn't have a special kind of musical intelligence?

Bobby Fischer, Kasparov, that Magnus kid? You don't think they have some inherent mental-brain advantage allowing them to play chess the way they do?

Usain Bolt, Justin Gatlin, Jesse Owens? They weren't born with something enhancing their running ability, or just ran more laps than the rest of us in high school?

And on and on and on. Face it, some people were born into or raised with an advantage.



Your points have more to do with their God given DNA and hard work, then some luck

Those people work hard to improve their God given talents. You will never here a great athletic say I was just lucky. they will say hard work and many hours in the gym is what made them great athletics.

You will never hear any one with the IQ above 5 say that it was anything more then their hard work. The left wing is who says oh no I was just lucky, even if you do not want to give credit to God for putting you in the right place. Your hard work that gets you your luck after you get the job or ,fill in the blank, it was your hard work that got you the promotion and made you successful not dumb luck. Their are lots of great athletics that never made great accomplishments because they refused to work hard or let drugs or their head get in the way. They had the great DNA just not the heart and soul to make good on their DNA. Darrel Strawberry,Dwight Gooden,Lawrence Phillips, Marcus Dupree was just a very few people with the DNA to make great things but luck or their own inability to work hard and make good decisions destroyed their careers. no such thing as dumb luck even the original poster didn't have luck he had good taste to date the girl that lead him to a great career, yes may not have been a life long love but the choice to date the young lady led him to great things. We make choices in life and those decisions have consequences both good and bad, his choice of dating this lady had good consequences. I am sure he his very grateful for what he has not from that decisions. Luck didn't get him to move a decision did. I am sure he will disagree with me since its his post but this just goes to show we can both have different opinion of same decision.

DNA is from decisions made by their parents to get together that made his DNA from theirs not dumb luck and their parents got theirs from their parents decisions and so forth.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668960
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I think that mindset and attitude have a lot more to do with success than luck does. The more I learn about the law of attraction and the power of the mind the less I believe in luck.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12669089
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Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
An excellent example are sports broadcasters. Chris Berman, Bob Costas, Chris Collinsworth, and on and on. Do these folks really have some unique, special "earned" talent than the rest of us? Or do they just happen to have vocal chords set up in such a way that their voices have a louder and more unique pitch? These folks make millions because of this.


Sports broadcasters have to be lucky?

Yes, they have talent and a good voice helps (Berman and Collinsworth do not have great broadcasting voices; Jim Nantz, Howard Cosell and Dan Patrick do), but a lot of those guys (play by play, not former athlete analysts like Collinsworth, Aikman and Romo) have journalism or broadcast degrees, started out working locally 35 years ago and had to grind it out and work there way up.

And sports broadcasting (live games, not highlights like Berman is known for) is not easy. Is it easy for what they get paid? That’s a different conversation, but it isn’t easy and spending that much time on live TV or radio has many potential pitfalls. One mistake (Jimmy the Greek) and you’re career is over.

I think you’re conflating luck with people going towards something they’re interested in and have talent for and working their way up the ladder.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12669154
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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: blooper961] #12669170
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Originally Posted By: blooper961
Its not what you know its who you know


Can't deny that. You have to make the right choices to meet those who you need to know.

But who you know is still not enough or everyone they know would be rich.

Good thing Tiger Woods knew his Dad. Was Tiger lucky or worked his butt off?

He's 6'1" and 185 soaking wet. Is that the best genetics to make a half billion bucks playing golf?


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12669202
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I felt lucky until I read through this

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Duck_Hunter] #12669246
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Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Mark Perry
If someone truly does not think hard work and determination are not keys to success then so be it. I have seen far too much firsthand that contradicts that study. Hard work, determination, and the power of chasing a dream cannot be measured by a computer.


What percentages of business start ups fail? Were those people not hard working dream chasers? I'm not sharing this study to discourage anyone. And by all means, I fully believe you should work hard. In terms of things you can control, there is zero doubt in my mind it matters a great deal. That said, the study shows the things you can't control matter more.

In all probability we would have never heard the name Bill Gates if he hadn't been born exactly when and where he was. He was born right at the start of the computer age and within a few blocks of one of two super computers that were open to public access at the time. This access sparked his interest in code. No doubt he's a hard worker, but if he was born in Indiana he would not have founded Microsoft.


Some might say Bill Gates benefited from fate, destiny or chance and hard work. Life isn’t fair, being in the right place at the right time is huge, knowing the right people can help, but it still takes hard work for the vast majority of the people that are successful.

You’re right, Gates benefited from the time he was born and growing up down the street from a place that had super computers open to the public and needed people to code. He still put in countless hours learning to code and then applying that learned knowledge to building an empire.

I don't consider that aspect of his life (being born at the right time and location) luck. I think he had some luck along the way, but it was taking some chances as he built Microsoft and the ball bounced his way.

I agree with Jacob, though. How did the study define luck? Without a definition (and depending on the definition) it’s hard to agree with the study’s findings.


Didn't hurt that Bill Gate's Dad was a partner in the largest law firm in Seattle. Kinda puts a damper on the whole 'garage' story.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12669248
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I believe that luck/chance/fate/timing etc. has more to do with it than the person. I know too many amazing people that worked their fingers to the bone all their life and never obtained what people would consider wealth or "financial success".

I know many successful people who are where they are by nothing more than chance.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12669265
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This subject has been studied to death

First off I’ll define success as amassing wealth and I don’t mean a 4 BR, 3 BA house in Frisco with a swimming pool, two high dollar foreign sedans in the garage and a $2 million 401(k)

I mean real wealth

By far, the profile of real wealth comes from those who were to the manor born. They have old money, socialize with others with old money, go to the same old money schools and saving the best for last, marry into old money. It’s very incestuous and it’s a galaxy the nouveau riche rarely experience.

But what about the American Dream you say, and I don’t mean Dusty Rhodes. Get an education, work hard, make sacrifices to build a career, take on immense challenges to improve yourself, blah, blah, blah and you can become rich and famous.

Not bloody likely! Oh it happens alright but for everyone that makes it, there’s a slew of them who are laying in a ditch with a javelin through them. And this is further compounded by some people’s idea of what “hard” work really is.




Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Scagnetti] #12669276
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Originally Posted By: Scagnetti
This subject has been studied to death

First off I’ll define success as amassing wealth and I don’t mean a 4 BR, 3 BA house in Frisco with a swimming pool, two high dollar foreign sedans in the garage and a $2 million 401(k)

I mean real wealth

By far, the profile of real wealth comes from those who were to the manor born. They have old money, socialize with others with old money, go to the same old money schools and saving the best for last, marry into old money. It’s very incestuous and it’s a galaxy the nouveau riche rarely experience.

But what about the American Dream you say, and I don’t mean Dusty Rhodes. Get an education, work hard, make sacrifices to build a career, take on immense challenges to improve yourself, blah, blah, blah and you can become rich and famous.

Not bloody likely! Oh it happens alright but for everyone that makes it, there’s a slew of them who are laying in a ditch with a javelin through them. And this is further compounded by some people’s idea of what “hard” work really is.

I’m out. I don’t have a pool, and I have a couple of Fords and a Toyota. Maybe next year.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Davedave] #12669278
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Originally Posted By: Davedave
Originally Posted By: Scagnetti
This subject has been studied to death

First off I’ll define success as amassing wealth and I don’t mean a 4 BR, 3 BA house in Frisco with a swimming pool, two high dollar foreign sedans in the garage and a $2 million 401(k)

I mean real wealth

By far, the profile of real wealth comes from those who were to the manor born. They have old money, socialize with others with old money, go to the same old money schools and saving the best for last, marry into old money. It’s very incestuous and it’s a galaxy the nouveau riche rarely experience.

But what about the American Dream you say, and I don’t mean Dusty Rhodes. Get an education, work hard, make sacrifices to build a career, take on immense challenges to improve yourself, blah, blah, blah and you can become rich and famous.

Not bloody likely! Oh it happens alright but for everyone that makes it, there’s a slew of them who are laying in a ditch with a javelin through them. And this is further compounded by some people’s idea of what “hard” work really is.

I’m out. I don’t have a pool, and I have a couple of Fords and a Toyota. Maybe next year.


your house is 3 times the size of mine. Rich is relative.



Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Bigbob_FTW] #12669283
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Originally Posted By: Bigbob_FTW
Originally Posted By: Davedave
Originally Posted By: Scagnetti
This subject has been studied to death

First off I’ll define success as amassing wealth and I don’t mean a 4 BR, 3 BA house in Frisco with a swimming pool, two high dollar foreign sedans in the garage and a $2 million 401(k)

I mean real wealth

By far, the profile of real wealth comes from those who were to the manor born. They have old money, socialize with others with old money, go to the same old money schools and saving the best for last, marry into old money. It’s very incestuous and it’s a galaxy the nouveau riche rarely experience.

But what about the American Dream you say, and I don’t mean Dusty Rhodes. Get an education, work hard, make sacrifices to build a career, take on immense challenges to improve yourself, blah, blah, blah and you can become rich and famous.

Not bloody likely! Oh it happens alright but for everyone that makes it, there’s a slew of them who are laying in a ditch with a javelin through them. And this is further compounded by some people’s idea of what “hard” work really is.

I’m out. I don’t have a pool, and I have a couple of Fords and a Toyota. Maybe next year.


your house is 3 times the size of mine. Rich is relative.

I’ve got a shotgun, a rifle and a four wheel drive.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: joebass2] #12669312
03/12/18 08:58 PM
03/12/18 08:58 PM
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Originally Posted By: joebass2
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Mark Perry
If someone truly does not think hard work and determination are not keys to success then so be it. I have seen far too much firsthand that contradicts that study. Hard work, determination, and the power of chasing a dream cannot be measured by a computer.


What percentages of business start ups fail? Were those people not hard working dream chasers? I'm not sharing this study to discourage anyone. And by all means, I fully believe you should work hard. In terms of things you can control, there is zero doubt in my mind it matters a great deal. That said, the study shows the things you can't control matter more.

In all probability we would have never heard the name Bill Gates if he hadn't been born exactly when and where he was. He was born right at the start of the computer age and within a few blocks of one of two super computers that were open to public access at the time. This access sparked his interest in code. No doubt he's a hard worker, but if he was born in Indiana he would not have founded Microsoft.


Some might say Bill Gates benefited from fate, destiny or chance and hard work. Life isn’t fair, being in the right place at the right time is huge, knowing the right people can help, but it still takes hard work for the vast majority of the people that are successful.

You’re right, Gates benefited from the time he was born and growing up down the street from a place that had super computers open to the public and needed people to code. He still put in countless hours learning to code and then applying that learned knowledge to building an empire.

I don't consider that aspect of his life (being born at the right time and location) luck. I think he had some luck along the way, but it was taking some chances as he built Microsoft and the ball bounced his way.

I agree with Jacob, though. How did the study define luck? Without a definition (and depending on the definition) it’s hard to agree with the study’s findings.


Didn't hurt that Bill Gate's Dad was a partner in the largest law firm in Seattle. Kinda puts a damper on the whole 'garage' story.


I don’t understand your point or how that puts a damped on the garage story.

Last edited by Duck_Hunter; 03/12/18 08:59 PM.

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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12669423
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I’ll just put this in here for whatever reason-
And just one example but there are many more-
Robin williams was both successful and wealthy-
But he was not happy-
I’d rather be happy-


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12669683
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I don't believe in luck - at all.


Whether you think you can or you can't, you are probably right.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12669723
03/13/18 01:25 AM
03/13/18 01:25 AM
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A guy I do business with sold his company with his partner for $1.6 billion. I have tried to figure out what he has that got him to that point. It's hard to say. Mainly he was willing to take the risk. He came to the US with two suitcases to get a degree at Harvard. Definitely intelligent. What he is doing now is basically for entertainment.

I like the story of the guy who owns the OX Ranch hunting ranch. Started a company Hostgator.com and sold it for over 200 million. Buys a big hunting ranch where you can now go drive a real tank. That's crazy.

Most of us are too busy making a living to make any real money.

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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Scagnetti] #12669727
03/13/18 01:28 AM
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Originally Posted By: Scagnetti
This subject has been studied to death

First off I’ll define success as amassing wealth and I don’t mean a 4 BR, 3 BA house in Frisco with a swimming pool, two high dollar foreign sedans in the garage and a $2 million 401(k)

I mean real wealth

By far, the profile of real wealth comes from those who were to the manor born. They have old money, socialize with others with old money, go to the same old money schools and saving the best for last, marry into old money. It’s very incestuous and it’s a galaxy the nouveau riche rarely experience.

But what about the American Dream you say, and I don’t mean Dusty Rhodes. Get an education, work hard, make sacrifices to build a career, take on immense challenges to improve yourself, blah, blah, blah and you can become rich and famous.

Not bloody likely! Oh it happens alright but for everyone that makes it, there’s a slew of them who are laying in a ditch with a javelin through them. And this is further compounded by some people’s idea of what “hard” work really is.


your wisdom is admirable

now a seperate topic
who did you take in
The Derby Futures ?

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: butch sanders] #12669739
03/13/18 01:35 AM
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Originally Posted By: butch sanders
Originally Posted By: Scagnetti
This subject has been studied to death

First off I’ll define success as amassing wealth and I don’t mean a 4 BR, 3 BA house in Frisco with a swimming pool, two high dollar foreign sedans in the garage and a $2 million 401(k)

I mean real wealth

By far, the profile of real wealth comes from those who were to the manor born. They have old money, socialize with others with old money, go to the same old money schools and saving the best for last, marry into old money. It’s very incestuous and it’s a galaxy the nouveau riche rarely experience.

But what about the American Dream you say, and I don’t mean Dusty Rhodes. Get an education, work hard, make sacrifices to build a career, take on immense challenges to improve yourself, blah, blah, blah and you can become rich and famous.

Not bloody likely! Oh it happens alright but for everyone that makes it, there’s a slew of them who are laying in a ditch with a javelin through them. And this is further compounded by some people’s idea of what “hard” work really is.


your wisdom is admirable

now a seperate topic
who did you take in
The Derby Futures ?

I paid $2 grand for the Lone Star Clocker tip sheet aka the butch sanders special




Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Scagnetti] #12669863
03/13/18 02:37 AM
03/13/18 02:37 AM
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Originally Posted By: Scagnetti
Originally Posted By: butch sanders
Originally Posted By: Scagnetti
This subject has been studied to death

First off I’ll define success as amassing wealth and I don’t mean a 4 BR, 3 BA house in Frisco with a swimming pool, two high dollar foreign sedans in the garage and a $2 million 401(k)

I mean real wealth

By far, the profile of real wealth comes from those who were to the manor born. They have old money, socialize with others with old money, go to the same old money schools and saving the best for last, marry into old money. It’s very incestuous and it’s a galaxy the nouveau riche rarely experience.

But what about the American Dream you say, and I don’t mean Dusty Rhodes. Get an education, work hard, make sacrifices to build a career, take on immense challenges to improve yourself, blah, blah, blah and you can become rich and famous.

Not bloody likely! Oh it happens alright but for everyone that makes it, there’s a slew of them who are laying in a ditch with a javelin through them. And this is further compounded by some people’s idea of what “hard” work really is.


your wisdom is admirable

now a seperate topic
who did you take in
The Derby Futures ?

I paid $2 grand for the Lone Star Clocker tip sheet aka the butch sanders special


Butch always goes for two.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670093
03/13/18 10:29 AM
03/13/18 10:29 AM
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Bitcoin. ##blockchain


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670112
03/13/18 11:08 AM
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What do they define as "wealthy"?

There are lots of smart people. If you lump all the smart people who work hard into one category, there are obviously some that are going to be luckier than others and they are likely to be the wealthiest. There are plenty of smart people who work hard that aren't wealthy as well, and I think they're on the other end of the luck spectrum.

Bottom line - generally, you can't get significant wealth without being smart, working hard, and getting lucky. It takes all 3. We just like to ignore the last one because there's nothing you can do about it.


Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.
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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Scagnetti] #12670164
03/13/18 12:27 PM
03/13/18 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted By: Scagnetti


By far, the profile of real wealth comes from those who were to the manor born. They have old money, socialize with others with old money, go to the same old money schools and saving the best for last, marry into old money. It’s very incestuous and it’s a galaxy the nouveau riche rarely experience.


Rich marry the rich, and the poor marry the poor. I watched all this happen the 40 years I have been here in Longview.


You can avoid having ulcers by adapting to the situation: If you fall in the mud puddle, check your pockets for fish. ~Unknown

Open your eyes & look within, are you satisfied with the life you´re living.

No matter how good or bad you have it, wake up each day thankful for your life. Someone somewhere else is desperately fighting for theirs.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670173
03/13/18 12:31 PM
03/13/18 12:31 PM
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A poor girl wants to marry
And a rich girl wants to flirt
A rich man goes to college
And a poor man goes to work
A drunkard wants another drink of wine
And a politician wants a vote
I don't want much of nothin' at all
But I will take another toke



Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: patriot07] #12670180
03/13/18 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted By: patriot07

Bottom line - generally, you can't get significant wealth without being smart, working hard, and getting lucky. It takes all 3. We just like to ignore the last one because there's nothing you can do about it.


Agree.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670257
03/13/18 01:19 PM
03/13/18 01:19 PM
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One of the things that study points out is that hard work and intelligence are necessary in most cases to be successful in life, but that the most talented people are rarely the most successful. The most talented folks are overtaken by folks of average work ethic and intelligence who just happened to be exceptionally lucky.

Here's a great case in point. A 19 year old kid who hit it big in bitcoin. He thinks you are stupid if you don't become a millionaire in the next 10 years. He is completely unaware his success was nothing but luck.

https://gizmodo.com/19-year-old-bitcoin-millionaire-says-its-your-own-fault-1822621836


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670282
03/13/18 01:32 PM
03/13/18 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
One of the things that study points out is that hard work and intelligence are necessary in most cases to be successful in life, but that the most talented people are rarely the most successful. The most talented folks are overtaken by folks of average work ethic and intelligence who just happened to be exceptionally lucky.

Here's a great case in point. A 19 year old kid who hit it big in bitcoin. He thinks you are stupid if you don't become a millionaire in the next 10 years. He is completely unaware his success was nothing but luck.

https://gizmodo.com/19-year-old-bitcoin-millionaire-says-its-your-own-fault-1822621836


He took a chance. That’s different than luck.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Duck_Hunter] #12670295
03/13/18 01:39 PM
03/13/18 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
One of the things that study points out is that hard work and intelligence are necessary in most cases to be successful in life, but that the most talented people are rarely the most successful. The most talented folks are overtaken by folks of average work ethic and intelligence who just happened to be exceptionally lucky.

Here's a great case in point. A 19 year old kid who hit it big in bitcoin. He thinks you are stupid if you don't become a millionaire in the next 10 years. He is completely unaware his success was nothing but luck.

https://gizmodo.com/19-year-old-bitcoin-millionaire-says-its-your-own-fault-1822621836


He took a chance. That’s different than luck.


How many kids dumped a bunch of money in Crypto in the past year and didn't wind up millionaires? Who knows. This kid gambled his grandmothers money and got lucky. Good for him. Great example of average being capitulated into the extra-ordinary through anything but hardwork.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670379
03/13/18 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
One of the things that study points out is that hard work and intelligence are necessary in most cases to be successful in life, but that the most talented people are rarely the most successful. The most talented folks are overtaken by folks of average work ethic and intelligence who just happened to be exceptionally lucky.

Here's a great case in point. A 19 year old kid who hit it big in bitcoin. He thinks you are stupid if you don't become a millionaire in the next 10 years. He is completely unaware his success was nothing but luck.

https://gizmodo.com/19-year-old-bitcoin-millionaire-says-its-your-own-fault-1822621836


He took a chance. That’s different than luck.


How many kids dumped a bunch of money in Crypto in the past year and didn't wind up millionaires? Who knows. This kid gambled his grandmothers money and got lucky. Good for him. Great example of average being capitulated into the extra-ordinary through anything but hardwork.


That’s investing in general. Anyone that got in on Bitcoin on the ground floor made a killing. Others that got in at the wrong time or went with another currency lost big.

I guess what we are finding out in this thread is some people define things differently. You call almost everything luck and others have a much narrower definition of luck in the context of this discussion.

I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Duck_Hunter] #12670394
03/13/18 02:18 PM
03/13/18 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
One of the things that study points out is that hard work and intelligence are necessary in most cases to be successful in life, but that the most talented people are rarely the most successful. The most talented folks are overtaken by folks of average work ethic and intelligence who just happened to be exceptionally lucky.

Here's a great case in point. A 19 year old kid who hit it big in bitcoin. He thinks you are stupid if you don't become a millionaire in the next 10 years. He is completely unaware his success was nothing but luck.

https://gizmodo.com/19-year-old-bitcoin-millionaire-says-its-your-own-fault-1822621836


He took a chance. That’s different than luck.


How many kids dumped a bunch of money in Crypto in the past year and didn't wind up millionaires? Who knows. This kid gambled his grandmothers money and got lucky. Good for him. Great example of average being capitulated into the extra-ordinary through anything but hardwork.


That’s investing in general. Anyone that got in on Bitcoin on the ground floor made a killing. Others that got in at the wrong time or went with another currency lost big.

I guess what we are finding out in this thread is some people define things differently. You call almost everything luck and others have a much narrower definition of luck in the context of this discussion.

I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?

How would you define getting hit in the nuts by a meteorite? I would call it bad luck.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670398
03/13/18 02:19 PM
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I would define individual stock picking as luck. This is a statistically demonstrable fact. Check out the book, A" random walk down wall street."


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Duck_Hunter] #12670409
03/13/18 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter


I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?


Further, there is nowadays
an ever greater evidence about the fundamental role of chance, luck or, more in general, random
factors, in determining successes or failures in our personal and professional lives. In particular,
it has been shown that scientists have the same chance along their career of publishing their
biggest hit [11]; that those with earlier surname initials are significantly more likely to receive
tenure at top departments [12]; that one’s position in an alphabetically sorted list may be
important in determining access to over-subscribed public services [13]; that middle name initials
enhance evaluations of intellectual performance [14]; that people with easy-to-pronounce names
are judged more positively than those with difficult-to-pronounce names [15]; that individuals
with noble-sounding surnames are found to work more often as managers than as employees
[16]; that females with masculine monikers are more successful in legal careers [17]; that roughly
half of the variance in incomes across persons worldwide is explained only by their country
of residence and by the income distribution within that country [18]; that the probability of
becoming a CEO is strongly influenced by your name or by your month of birth [19, 20, 21];
and that even the probability of developing a cancer, maybe cutting a brilliant career, is mainly
due to simple bad luck [22].


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Davedave] #12670432
03/13/18 02:36 PM
03/13/18 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted By: Davedave
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
He took a chance. That’s different than luck.


How many kids dumped a bunch of money in Crypto in the past year and didn't wind up millionaires? Who knows. This kid gambled his grandmothers money and got lucky. Good for him. Great example of average being capitulated into the extra-ordinary through anything but hardwork.


That’s investing in general. Anyone that got in on Bitcoin on the ground floor made a killing. Others that got in at the wrong time or went with another currency lost big.

I guess what we are finding out in this thread is some people define things differently. You call almost everything luck and others have a much narrower definition of luck in the context of this discussion.

I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?

How would you define getting hit in the nuts by a meteorite? I would call it bad luck.


I’d put it in my radio flyer wagon and try to make money off of it until I found out it was a big old frozen chunk of poopy that fell from an airplane.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670433
03/13/18 02:36 PM
03/13/18 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
I would define individual stock picking as luck. This is a statistically demonstrable fact. Check out the book, A" random walk down wall street."


I’ll look into it.

Edit: I read the preface and am reading the first chapter. Thanks for suggesting. It’s interetsing.

Last edited by Duck_Hunter; 03/13/18 02:46 PM.

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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670439
03/13/18 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter


I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?


Further, there is nowadays
an ever greater evidence about the fundamental role of chance, luck or, more in general, random
factors, in determining successes or failures in our personal and professional lives. In particular,
it has been shown that scientists have the same chance along their career of publishing their
biggest hit [11]; that those with earlier surname initials are significantly more likely to receive
tenure at top departments [12]; that one’s position in an alphabetically sorted list may be
important in determining access to over-subscribed public services [13]; that middle name initials
enhance evaluations of intellectual performance [14]; that people with easy-to-pronounce names
are judged more positively than those with difficult-to-pronounce names [15]; that individuals
with noble-sounding surnames are found to work more often as managers than as employees
[16]; that females with masculine monikers are more successful in legal careers [17]; that roughly
half of the variance in incomes across persons worldwide is explained only by their country
of residence and by the income distribution within that country [18]; that the probability of
becoming a CEO is strongly influenced by your name or by your month of birth [19, 20, 21];
and that even the probability of developing a cancer, maybe cutting a brilliant career, is mainly
due to simple bad luck [22].


Thanks.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670508
03/13/18 03:08 PM
03/13/18 03:08 PM
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I'm gonna try to summarize a long soapbox speech into a few words:

Most often, we make our own luck. And that is not always related to long hard hours of toil.

Sure, someone can get lucky and win the lottery. But more often, what is generally perceived as "luck" is really the result of someone laying a solid foundation that allows them to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. (America, unlike much of the world, truly IS the land of opportunity.)

Trying to think of a good solid example to illustrate ... oh, here we go.

I knew many guys at my former job at American Airlines who had worked for 20+ years, putting in long hard hours of labor. But they never bothered to learn new job skills that would allow them to advance to other better-paying positions at the airline, because they placed a higher value on the job security that their union seniority provided them. So even when a great job opportunity was posted, they couldn't jump on it because they lacked the credentials or skills. Is that 'bad luck'?

Likewise, many of these guys had been contributing to their 401k plans for long years, and would complain bitterly about how little their investments had gone up. When I asked what they had their money in, it turned to be almost entirely money market funds and similar low risk choices. They had NO foundation to take advantage of the good investing opportunities available in the 401k plan, because they never put part of their money into better performing assets with moderately low risk. Again, is that bad luck, or something else?

The greatest business opportunity around might pop up in front of you one day, but if you lack the foundation of an adequate education, solid credit, and acquaintances who can help you capitalize on the opportunity ... well, you probably won't be able to grab that one. Darn that bad luck.

If one thinks of this as mere "luck", then my definition of "luck" is different than yours. I think we make our own luck in many ways.


"Decency is not news; it is buried in the obituaries --but it is a force stronger than crime" ~ Robert A. Heinlein, 1952

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670530
03/13/18 03:19 PM
03/13/18 03:19 PM
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Well said Zeek-


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: steveiam] #12670536
03/13/18 03:22 PM
03/13/18 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted By: steveiam
Well said Zeek-


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Duck_Hunter] #12670648
03/13/18 04:20 PM
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I've found successes or failures in our personal and professional lives are self created.

These are not "luck" at all. Lack of planning and preparation in either will lead to failure.

No "luck" involved with planning and preparation.

Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter


I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?


Further, there is nowadays
an ever greater evidence about the fundamental role of chance, luck or, more in general, random
factors, in determining successes or failures in our personal and professional lives. In particular,
it has been shown that scientists have the same chance along their career of publishing their
biggest hit [11]; that those with earlier surname initials are significantly more likely to receive
tenure at top departments [12]; that one’s position in an alphabetically sorted list may be
important in determining access to over-subscribed public services [13]; that middle name initials
enhance evaluations of intellectual performance [14]; that people with easy-to-pronounce names
are judged more positively than those with difficult-to-pronounce names [15]; that individuals
with noble-sounding surnames are found to work more often as managers than as employees
[16]; that females with masculine monikers are more successful in legal careers [17]; that roughly
half of the variance in incomes across persons worldwide is explained only by their country
of residence and by the income distribution within that country [18]; that the probability of
becoming a CEO is strongly influenced by your name or by your month of birth [19, 20, 21];
and that even the probability of developing a cancer, maybe cutting a brilliant career, is mainly
due to simple bad luck [22].


Thanks.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670672
03/13/18 04:31 PM
03/13/18 04:31 PM
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Zeek. That's not how they are defining luck in the study. It's more to do with things completely beyond your control. Sickness. Your name. When or where you were born. Who your parents are. Unexpected financial windfalls. Unexpected financial out lays. (Car accident, injury, company implodes) etc...

Absolutely you can manufacture "luck." I think someone else may have said it already, "I'm a great believer in luck, I find the harder I work the luckier I get." That's not the type of luck this study is talking about. It's talking about wealthy parents that die when a kid is 18 vs. 30, vs. 70. 18 year old kid maybe squanders it. 30 year old invests in and becomes wealthy. 70 year old is just too old to do anything with it. Or you could be unlucky and have poor parents. You could be ultra talented and wind up with cancer and a million bucks in medical bills etc...

Turns out these sorts of truly chance events have more of an impact on wealth than hard work. So says the computer simulation anyway.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670696
03/13/18 04:41 PM
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One thing I've learned about computer simulations is that I can make them show anything I want with a simple change in a line of code. A tiny tweak early in the program can morph a desired result exponentially by the end.

Originally Posted By: Jpurdue

Turns out these sorts of truly chance events have more of an impact on wealth than hard work. So says the computer simulation anyway.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: John175®] #12670702
03/13/18 04:45 PM
03/13/18 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted By: John175®
One thing I've learned about computer simulations is that I can make them show anything I want with a simple change in a line of code.
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue

Turns out these sorts of truly chance events have more of an impact on wealth than hard work. So says the computer simulation anyway.


True if you can control the variables. In Circuit design simulators, most of the variables are set. You can change from a weak to a strong model but within process margins, but that is about it.



Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670874
03/13/18 06:13 PM
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Malcolm Gladwell’s book “Outliers” is an entertaining, fact-based look at the impact of luck, intelligence, hard work - and the achievement of greatness. If you’re truly interested in this topic, I strongly recommend that you check it out. Has a GREAT take on the idea that “10,000 Hours” appears to be a tipping point relative to greatness.

One Example Only - Bill Gates
Outlier’s discusses the role “chance” or “luck” played in what Bill Gates has achieved (technologically and his wealth). Gates came from “the right family”, is intelligent, has a strong work ethic...but at an early age he just happened to have near-unlimited access (because of where he lived, where the mainframe was located and a connection...etc.) to a mainframe - at a time when pc’s and laptops were unheard of. Because of that, he was able to put in his “10,000 hrs” - and the rest is history.

Very very cool book!

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12671047
03/13/18 07:42 PM
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The harder you work, the luckier you get.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Bob Davis] #12671224
03/13/18 09:50 PM
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In this case it is easy to control the variables.

If the polling is off by a small percentage any direction the entire simulation is off.

The data must have been gathered by a poll of some sort via interviews which can be twisted severely. Never heard someone down on their luck blame themselves for the state they are in...more likely it will be this that or the other thing happened. I got sick and didn't have insurance. My boss fired me because of something outside of my control. You get the idea. Those stories were a part of the whole analysis and there's not a way to find out whether there is any truth in the narratives. Who is going to challenge the assertions? Who is going to research the "unlucky" stories? On the other hand the successful folks are more likely to lay out the truth behind how they succeeded. "Unlucky" types are less likely to do the same. It's human nature to deflect blame. If just a handful of bad narratives make it into the study the whole output is skewed into the coin toss theory.

Originally Posted By: Bob Davis
Originally Posted By: John175®
One thing I've learned about computer simulations is that I can make them show anything I want with a simple change in a line of code.
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue

Turns out these sorts of truly chance events have more of an impact on wealth than hard work. So says the computer simulation anyway.


True if you can control the variables. In Circuit design simulators, most of the variables are set. You can change from a weak to a strong model but within process margins, but that is about it.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12671409
03/14/18 12:36 AM
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I create my own luck.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: John175®] #12671513
03/14/18 01:42 AM
03/14/18 01:42 AM
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Originally Posted By: John175®
In this case it is easy to control the variables.

If the polling is off by a small percentage any direction the entire simulation is off.

The data must have been gathered by a poll of some sort via interviews which can be twisted severely. Never heard someone down on their luck blame themselves for the state they are in...more likely it will be this that or the other thing happened. I got sick and didn't have insurance. My boss fired me because of something outside of my control. You get the idea. Those stories were a part of the whole analysis and there's not a way to find out whether there is any truth in the narratives. Who is going to challenge the assertions? Who is going to research the "unlucky" stories? On the other hand the successful folks are more likely to lay out the truth behind how they succeeded. "Unlucky" types are less likely to do the same. It's human nature to deflect blame. If just a handful of bad narratives make it into the study the whole output is skewed into the coin toss theory.


Got it. Agree with your assessment John.



Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: J-SPENCER] #12671527
03/14/18 01:49 AM
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Originally Posted By: J-SPENCER
The harder you work, the luckier you get.

Perhaps you and I have lived very different lives or grew up in very, very different neighborhoods. But I can tell you in all honesty that if I have learned anything in this life, it is that that is not even close to being true.


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12671545
03/14/18 01:59 AM
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Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
Originally Posted By: J-SPENCER
The harder you work, the luckier you get.

Perhaps you and I have lived very different lives or grew up in very, very different neighborhoods. But I can tell you in all honesty that if I have learned anything in this life, it is that that is not even close to being true.


one thing I have leaned in life is this attitude will make you a loser. Winners get up and keep trying till they succeed loser keep playing the lottery hoping to get lucky

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