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Jan 23rd, 2013
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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670282
03/13/18 01:32 PM
03/13/18 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
One of the things that study points out is that hard work and intelligence are necessary in most cases to be successful in life, but that the most talented people are rarely the most successful. The most talented folks are overtaken by folks of average work ethic and intelligence who just happened to be exceptionally lucky.

Here's a great case in point. A 19 year old kid who hit it big in bitcoin. He thinks you are stupid if you don't become a millionaire in the next 10 years. He is completely unaware his success was nothing but luck.

https://gizmodo.com/19-year-old-bitcoin-millionaire-says-its-your-own-fault-1822621836


He took a chance. That’s different than luck.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Duck_Hunter] #12670295
03/13/18 01:39 PM
03/13/18 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
One of the things that study points out is that hard work and intelligence are necessary in most cases to be successful in life, but that the most talented people are rarely the most successful. The most talented folks are overtaken by folks of average work ethic and intelligence who just happened to be exceptionally lucky.

Here's a great case in point. A 19 year old kid who hit it big in bitcoin. He thinks you are stupid if you don't become a millionaire in the next 10 years. He is completely unaware his success was nothing but luck.

https://gizmodo.com/19-year-old-bitcoin-millionaire-says-its-your-own-fault-1822621836


He took a chance. That’s different than luck.


How many kids dumped a bunch of money in Crypto in the past year and didn't wind up millionaires? Who knows. This kid gambled his grandmothers money and got lucky. Good for him. Great example of average being capitulated into the extra-ordinary through anything but hardwork.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670379
03/13/18 02:13 PM
03/13/18 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
One of the things that study points out is that hard work and intelligence are necessary in most cases to be successful in life, but that the most talented people are rarely the most successful. The most talented folks are overtaken by folks of average work ethic and intelligence who just happened to be exceptionally lucky.

Here's a great case in point. A 19 year old kid who hit it big in bitcoin. He thinks you are stupid if you don't become a millionaire in the next 10 years. He is completely unaware his success was nothing but luck.

https://gizmodo.com/19-year-old-bitcoin-millionaire-says-its-your-own-fault-1822621836


He took a chance. That’s different than luck.


How many kids dumped a bunch of money in Crypto in the past year and didn't wind up millionaires? Who knows. This kid gambled his grandmothers money and got lucky. Good for him. Great example of average being capitulated into the extra-ordinary through anything but hardwork.


That’s investing in general. Anyone that got in on Bitcoin on the ground floor made a killing. Others that got in at the wrong time or went with another currency lost big.

I guess what we are finding out in this thread is some people define things differently. You call almost everything luck and others have a much narrower definition of luck in the context of this discussion.

I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Duck_Hunter] #12670394
03/13/18 02:18 PM
03/13/18 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
One of the things that study points out is that hard work and intelligence are necessary in most cases to be successful in life, but that the most talented people are rarely the most successful. The most talented folks are overtaken by folks of average work ethic and intelligence who just happened to be exceptionally lucky.

Here's a great case in point. A 19 year old kid who hit it big in bitcoin. He thinks you are stupid if you don't become a millionaire in the next 10 years. He is completely unaware his success was nothing but luck.

https://gizmodo.com/19-year-old-bitcoin-millionaire-says-its-your-own-fault-1822621836


He took a chance. That’s different than luck.


How many kids dumped a bunch of money in Crypto in the past year and didn't wind up millionaires? Who knows. This kid gambled his grandmothers money and got lucky. Good for him. Great example of average being capitulated into the extra-ordinary through anything but hardwork.


That’s investing in general. Anyone that got in on Bitcoin on the ground floor made a killing. Others that got in at the wrong time or went with another currency lost big.

I guess what we are finding out in this thread is some people define things differently. You call almost everything luck and others have a much narrower definition of luck in the context of this discussion.

I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?

How would you define getting hit in the nuts by a meteorite? I would call it bad luck.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670398
03/13/18 02:19 PM
03/13/18 02:19 PM
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I would define individual stock picking as luck. This is a statistically demonstrable fact. Check out the book, A" random walk down wall street."


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Duck_Hunter] #12670409
03/13/18 02:25 PM
03/13/18 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter


I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?


Further, there is nowadays
an ever greater evidence about the fundamental role of chance, luck or, more in general, random
factors, in determining successes or failures in our personal and professional lives. In particular,
it has been shown that scientists have the same chance along their career of publishing their
biggest hit [11]; that those with earlier surname initials are significantly more likely to receive
tenure at top departments [12]; that one’s position in an alphabetically sorted list may be
important in determining access to over-subscribed public services [13]; that middle name initials
enhance evaluations of intellectual performance [14]; that people with easy-to-pronounce names
are judged more positively than those with difficult-to-pronounce names [15]; that individuals
with noble-sounding surnames are found to work more often as managers than as employees
[16]; that females with masculine monikers are more successful in legal careers [17]; that roughly
half of the variance in incomes across persons worldwide is explained only by their country
of residence and by the income distribution within that country [18]; that the probability of
becoming a CEO is strongly influenced by your name or by your month of birth [19, 20, 21];
and that even the probability of developing a cancer, maybe cutting a brilliant career, is mainly
due to simple bad luck [22].


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Davedave] #12670432
03/13/18 02:36 PM
03/13/18 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted By: Davedave
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
He took a chance. That’s different than luck.


How many kids dumped a bunch of money in Crypto in the past year and didn't wind up millionaires? Who knows. This kid gambled his grandmothers money and got lucky. Good for him. Great example of average being capitulated into the extra-ordinary through anything but hardwork.


That’s investing in general. Anyone that got in on Bitcoin on the ground floor made a killing. Others that got in at the wrong time or went with another currency lost big.

I guess what we are finding out in this thread is some people define things differently. You call almost everything luck and others have a much narrower definition of luck in the context of this discussion.

I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?

How would you define getting hit in the nuts by a meteorite? I would call it bad luck.


I’d put it in my radio flyer wagon and try to make money off of it until I found out it was a big old frozen chunk of poopy that fell from an airplane.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670433
03/13/18 02:36 PM
03/13/18 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
I would define individual stock picking as luck. This is a statistically demonstrable fact. Check out the book, A" random walk down wall street."


I’ll look into it.

Edit: I read the preface and am reading the first chapter. Thanks for suggesting. It’s interetsing.

Last edited by Duck_Hunter; 03/13/18 02:46 PM.

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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670439
03/13/18 02:40 PM
03/13/18 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter


I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?


Further, there is nowadays
an ever greater evidence about the fundamental role of chance, luck or, more in general, random
factors, in determining successes or failures in our personal and professional lives. In particular,
it has been shown that scientists have the same chance along their career of publishing their
biggest hit [11]; that those with earlier surname initials are significantly more likely to receive
tenure at top departments [12]; that one’s position in an alphabetically sorted list may be
important in determining access to over-subscribed public services [13]; that middle name initials
enhance evaluations of intellectual performance [14]; that people with easy-to-pronounce names
are judged more positively than those with difficult-to-pronounce names [15]; that individuals
with noble-sounding surnames are found to work more often as managers than as employees
[16]; that females with masculine monikers are more successful in legal careers [17]; that roughly
half of the variance in incomes across persons worldwide is explained only by their country
of residence and by the income distribution within that country [18]; that the probability of
becoming a CEO is strongly influenced by your name or by your month of birth [19, 20, 21];
and that even the probability of developing a cancer, maybe cutting a brilliant career, is mainly
due to simple bad luck [22].


Thanks.


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670508
03/13/18 03:08 PM
03/13/18 03:08 PM
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Lewisville
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I'm gonna try to summarize a long soapbox speech into a few words:

Most often, we make our own luck. And that is not always related to long hard hours of toil.

Sure, someone can get lucky and win the lottery. But more often, what is generally perceived as "luck" is really the result of someone laying a solid foundation that allows them to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. (America, unlike much of the world, truly IS the land of opportunity.)

Trying to think of a good solid example to illustrate ... oh, here we go.

I knew many guys at my former job at American Airlines who had worked for 20+ years, putting in long hard hours of labor. But they never bothered to learn new job skills that would allow them to advance to other better-paying positions at the airline, because they placed a higher value on the job security that their union seniority provided them. So even when a great job opportunity was posted, they couldn't jump on it because they lacked the credentials or skills. Is that 'bad luck'?

Likewise, many of these guys had been contributing to their 401k plans for long years, and would complain bitterly about how little their investments had gone up. When I asked what they had their money in, it turned to be almost entirely money market funds and similar low risk choices. They had NO foundation to take advantage of the good investing opportunities available in the 401k plan, because they never put part of their money into better performing assets with moderately low risk. Again, is that bad luck, or something else?

The greatest business opportunity around might pop up in front of you one day, but if you lack the foundation of an adequate education, solid credit, and acquaintances who can help you capitalize on the opportunity ... well, you probably won't be able to grab that one. Darn that bad luck.

If one thinks of this as mere "luck", then my definition of "luck" is different than yours. I think we make our own luck in many ways.


"Decency is not news; it is buried in the obituaries --but it is a force stronger than crime" ~ Robert A. Heinlein, 1952

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670530
03/13/18 03:19 PM
03/13/18 03:19 PM
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Well said Zeek-


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: steveiam] #12670536
03/13/18 03:22 PM
03/13/18 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted By: steveiam
Well said Zeek-


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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Duck_Hunter] #12670648
03/13/18 04:20 PM
03/13/18 04:20 PM
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I've found successes or failures in our personal and professional lives are self created.

These are not "luck" at all. Lack of planning and preparation in either will lead to failure.

No "luck" involved with planning and preparation.

Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: Duck_Hunter


I might have missed it, but how does the study define luck?


Further, there is nowadays
an ever greater evidence about the fundamental role of chance, luck or, more in general, random
factors, in determining successes or failures in our personal and professional lives. In particular,
it has been shown that scientists have the same chance along their career of publishing their
biggest hit [11]; that those with earlier surname initials are significantly more likely to receive
tenure at top departments [12]; that one’s position in an alphabetically sorted list may be
important in determining access to over-subscribed public services [13]; that middle name initials
enhance evaluations of intellectual performance [14]; that people with easy-to-pronounce names
are judged more positively than those with difficult-to-pronounce names [15]; that individuals
with noble-sounding surnames are found to work more often as managers than as employees
[16]; that females with masculine monikers are more successful in legal careers [17]; that roughly
half of the variance in incomes across persons worldwide is explained only by their country
of residence and by the income distribution within that country [18]; that the probability of
becoming a CEO is strongly influenced by your name or by your month of birth [19, 20, 21];
and that even the probability of developing a cancer, maybe cutting a brilliant career, is mainly
due to simple bad luck [22].


Thanks.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670672
03/13/18 04:31 PM
03/13/18 04:31 PM
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Zeek. That's not how they are defining luck in the study. It's more to do with things completely beyond your control. Sickness. Your name. When or where you were born. Who your parents are. Unexpected financial windfalls. Unexpected financial out lays. (Car accident, injury, company implodes) etc...

Absolutely you can manufacture "luck." I think someone else may have said it already, "I'm a great believer in luck, I find the harder I work the luckier I get." That's not the type of luck this study is talking about. It's talking about wealthy parents that die when a kid is 18 vs. 30, vs. 70. 18 year old kid maybe squanders it. 30 year old invests in and becomes wealthy. 70 year old is just too old to do anything with it. Or you could be unlucky and have poor parents. You could be ultra talented and wind up with cancer and a million bucks in medical bills etc...

Turns out these sorts of truly chance events have more of an impact on wealth than hard work. So says the computer simulation anyway.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

www.LunkerLore.com

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12670696
03/13/18 04:41 PM
03/13/18 04:41 PM
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One thing I've learned about computer simulations is that I can make them show anything I want with a simple change in a line of code. A tiny tweak early in the program can morph a desired result exponentially by the end.

Originally Posted By: Jpurdue

Turns out these sorts of truly chance events have more of an impact on wealth than hard work. So says the computer simulation anyway.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
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