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Jan 23rd, 2013
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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668679
03/12/18 03:13 PM
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Of course there's luck involved. Mark Zuckberg came up with a simple, straightforward idea of essentially making an online phone book of people with their pictures on it. And boom - a few years later, he becomes one of the richest human beings in the history of the universe.

I'm not taking away from this kid, but there are millions of people out there who have "worked harder" than him, tried out countless ideas that didn't happen to make it, or possibly even got better grades than him (I wonder where he ranked in his class?). The point is, you can stumble upon something and luck yourself into billions.

If "hard work" were the answer, then I think a good 60% of the American population would be millionaires.

What freaks me out are those fantasy daydreamers who claim every rich person "made the right decisions" and "just worked hard." That is farcical and patently ridiculous.


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668691
03/12/18 03:19 PM
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Consider also the role of "lucking out" in the area of genetics. I'm sorry folks, but none of us can plop ourselves into the gym for a few hours a week and end up being able to play basketball like Lebron James, Michael Jordan or Kobie Bryant. They were born with some kind of special genetic code that had them wired for the extremely technical-physical movements required for basketball success.


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668700
03/12/18 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Here's a potentially contentious study. It used computer models to show becoming wealthy has far more to do with luck than with talent or hard work. It is a bit uncomfortable to think about, but I generally tend to agree. Some of the wealthiest folks I know aren't the smartest or the hardest working. They were in the right place at the right time, or had the right connections.

I think hard work goes a long way, but you can be the hardest worker in the world and get cancer at 32 and wind up broke. Conversely you can be dumb as a box of rocks, but use daddy's business connections to land a six figure job.

Discuss.

Link to study


Next time you're coming to DFW, you're welcome to stop by my office for lunch (I'll cook some coho salmon). That'll give me 45 minutes to an hour to bend your ear on the topic. grin


"Decency is not news; it is buried in the obituaries --but it is a force stronger than crime" ~ Robert A. Heinlein, 1952

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668706
03/12/18 03:26 PM
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Or those who benefitted from being implanted with excellent social intelligence (if you don't believe this is a thing, read on the psychologist Gardner and his theory of multiple intelligences). These folks can work crowds, interact with others extremely well, socialize and gain benefits this way - far better than what a person born without those skills can do. Think of politicians.

Or musical intelligence. Did Whitney Houston, Katy Perry, George Strait, etc. just "work hard" or were thy born with better voices than the the rest of us?


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668710
03/12/18 03:28 PM
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I would like to see a study on social intelligence, I strongly suspect it may have enormous predictive ability.


"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12668711
03/12/18 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
Consider also the role of "lucking out" in the area of genetics. I'm sorry folks, but none of us can plop ourselves into the gym for a few hours a week and end up being able to play basketball like Lebron James, Michael Jordan or Kobie Bryant. They were born with some kind of special genetic code that had them wired for the extremely technical-physical movements required for basketball success.



true
Prince Harry & Andrew also
imagine what they have been through

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668717
03/12/18 03:30 PM
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If your other half isn't on the same page as you most of your hard work is just pizzed in the wind.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668727
03/12/18 03:35 PM
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An excellent example are sports broadcasters. Chris Berman, Bob Costas, Chris Collinsworth, and on and on. Do these folks really have some unique, special "earned" talent than the rest of us? Or do they just happen to have vocal chords set up in such a way that their voices have a louder and more unique pitch? These folks make millions because of this.


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668753
03/12/18 03:49 PM
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I will still say its more about hard work. Heard a wise man once say "when you want something as bad as you want to breathe" you will be successful. Luck does not do a damn thing for you when you have failed time and again but still keep on pushing and finally reaching your goal. Luck does not stop you from giving up, luck does not fuel that fire inside of you and luck ain't paying the bills to keep the lights on either.

I would never suggest someone like Gates got "lucky". He saw a way to chase a dream, made it happen and the rest is history. He saw a need, he filled that need and in the process I am sure he took a beating along the way on many fronts.

Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12668779
03/12/18 03:59 PM
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No. You gave a horrible example.

They have their jobs and million dollar paychecks because they have intimate knowledge of the game and can "bring-it" week in and week out regardless of who is on the field. Their TV/Radio voice can be learned and trained if needed. Try not to simplify everything down to some genetic trait or you end up casting out those who you deem not genetically capable. Some people really need to stop focusing on such things and look for skills and determination to succeed. There are millions of people with great TV/Radio voices that work in jobs other than entertainment.

Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
An excellent example are sports broadcasters. Chris Berman, Bob Costas, Chris Collinsworth, and on and on. Do these folks really have some unique, special "earned" talent than the rest of us? Or do they just happen to have vocal chords set up in such a way that their voices have a louder and more unique pitch? These folks make millions because of this.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668797
03/12/18 04:03 PM
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Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
I would characterize myself as reasonably successful. Particularly for my age. I believe I'm a hard worker, but I also recognize the role luck has played. My first job was a game changer for me. The only reason I got it was because I happened to be dating a gal at Purdue who lived in Texas. The only reason I applied for that job was because it was headquartered out of Texas near this gal. The gals gone, but I am still in the same industry.

I also like to say I've made a million bucks playing poker. Not in winnings, but I've played a lot of home games with executives that have wound up resulting in very good relationships which has lead to a whole bunch of promotions over the years. If I hadn't been interested in poker, I truly believe many of those doors would not have been opened. Luck? Maybe.

So anyway. Yes, 100% believe in hard work, but I also recognize the role luck has played. I've also been blessed with reasonably good health.


As above: CHOICES!!!!!!!


You bettcha!

oofta!
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: John175®] #12668841
03/12/18 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted By: John175®
No. You gave a horrible example.

They have their jobs and million dollar paychecks because they have intimate knowledge of the game and can "bring-it" week in and week out regardless of who is on the field. Their TV/Radio voice can be learned and trained if needed. Try not to simplify everything down to some genetic trait or you end up casting out those who you deem not genetically capable. Some people really need to stop focusing on such things and look for skills and determination to succeed. There are millions of people with great TV/Radio voices that work in jobs other than entertainment. .


Beethoven, Wagner, Mozart? They didn't have a special kind of musical intelligence?

Bobby Fischer, Kasparov, that Magnus kid? You don't think they have some inherent mental-brain advantage allowing them to play chess the way they do?

Usain Bolt, Justin Gatlin, Jesse Owens? They weren't born with something enhancing their running ability, or just ran more laps than the rest of us in high school?

And on and on and on. Face it, some people were born into or raised with an advantage.


--Nick smirk
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: bigtexnick] #12668864
03/12/18 04:29 PM
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I don't get your point. You are fixated on genetics. I've know tall people who couldn't play B-ball worth a hoot...nor did they have an interest in it. I've know short people who didn't want to become jockeys. I've know beautiful women who had no interest in being a movie star. I've know people with angelic voices with no interest in singing beyond the pew in a church. If you are [censored]-Wee Herman and want to play in the NBA then you need to brace yourself for disappointment...the adult in your life needs to guide you into something else. Genetics play a role in selecting what you should persue but has very little in determining if you will be successful.

Do you have bad genetics or are you arguing people who don't have the genetics to do anything they want is somehow unfair?

Are genetics luck or selective breeding?

This is the most inane path of discourse I've heard in a long-long time. BTW...at one point in my life I had a paraplegic manager. She was excellent. In your "genetics" world she would never had been given the chance.

Originally Posted By: bigtexnick
Originally Posted By: John175®
No. You gave a horrible example.

They have their jobs and million dollar paychecks because they have intimate knowledge of the game and can "bring-it" week in and week out regardless of who is on the field. Their TV/Radio voice can be learned and trained if needed. Try not to simplify everything down to some genetic trait or you end up casting out those who you deem not genetically capable. Some people really need to stop focusing on such things and look for skills and determination to succeed. There are millions of people with great TV/Radio voices that work in jobs other than entertainment. .


Beethoven, Wagner, Mozart? They didn't have a special kind of musical intelligence?

Bobby Fischer, Kasparov, that Magnus kid? You don't think they have some inherent mental-brain advantage allowing them to play chess the way they do?

Usain Bolt, Justin Gatlin, Jesse Owens? They weren't born with something enhancing their running ability, or just ran more laps than the rest of us in high school?

And on and on and on. Face it, some people were born into or raised with an advantage.


Hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.
Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: Jpurdue] #12668873
03/12/18 04:32 PM
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Re: The role of luck in success and failure [Re: John175®] #12668895
03/12/18 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted By: John175®
I don't get your point.

My point is that wealth does not equate to "merit" or "hard work" or whatever fantasy-myth buzz word you want to use. In some cases, the rich got there by pure dumb luck, favoritism/nepotism, inheritance, fraud/illegality, or were bolstered by genetic/inherent/environmental factors. In some cases, yes, there was the good ole' fashioned rags-to-riches tales of people starting from nothing and becoming millionaires by simply working hard. Unfortunately, many people see nothing but the latter cases and not enough of the former cases. Life is not as simple as you want it to be.


--Nick smirk
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