Houston weather office mentions a low pressure wave moving into our area Mon-Tue from the north central Gulf.

A weather forecaster I trust and the Houston weather office warn to watch the southwest and western Gulf for tropical development over the next 5-15 days. The Houston office is concerned tropical development would move toward us as a closed circulation.

Tropical Prediction Center does not mention Gulf development.

I wouldn't cancel any plans based on this. But keep an eye on the near term forecast as they get a better handle on the situation.

Thanks, I saw that tropical thing a couple of days ago, they weren't concrened about it then, I missed a day or two of reports.

My NOAA emails have been hit or miss recently, don't know why either.

Easterly wave is along 92W this morning. Rain and winds will increase Monday thru Tuesday.

Houston forecast office is more confident in Bay of Campeche tropical development Wed-Friday with NNW movement.

Maybe someone along the coast will get high surf and a chance for bull reds off the piers.

I looked at a bunch of data, I dont see it, unless the storm just south of Cuba does something..I cant see how Carla to the west can trigger anything...But you never know...

The MJO is forecast to move into the Gulf area and will provide lift. There is a lot of deep moisture in the Bay of Campeche from Carlotta. The wave south of Cuba would add more energy and moisture. It would be a slow development.

I do not mind the storms , but it sure messes up the gulf.

One of the sites is predicting 20' swells late week offshore. That seems a bit overdone to me.

Enough tide and surf to lap at the SeaWall and the bull reds will hit the piers.

It can certainly get 20 footers in the gulf, and then some.

These hot, humid, still days are the ones that you keep a close eye on the sky and the radar when offshore. I've had squalls suddenly develop right on top of us. Start pouring rain, howling wind, lightening and thunder, and then water spouts. Trying to out run 'em back to the jetties when you're 30, 40 or more miles offshore isn't fun.

so whats a 20-0 swell turn into at the beach...

20' swell would be 6-8' at the beach depending on wave direction and shape of the coast. It also depends on how shalllow it off the beach. The same site is predicting 7'-6" surf on South Padre for Thursday before the wind turns more northerly and parallel to the coast.

The NE and E wind we get today should leave 1-2' surf for Monday morning at Galveston.

Those hot and still days make it easy for the air to rise and build thunderheads. Its mesoscale so very hit and miss. Can pop up and be gone in 1-2 hours. The good thing is on still days like that you are outrunning the outflow boundary and not the storm moving.

TPC is now expecting a broad low pressure to move off the Yucatan and drift into the SW Gulf midweek.

Houston weather discussion mentions the same feature with a movement more west than north. That would keep rain, swells and tides south of us. If they are correct it will be a hot dry Fri-Sun.

The easterly wave axis is over the Sabine River today and moving west. Our rain and squall chances will increase thru Wed.

TPC has upgraded to 10% chance of development for disturbance in NW Caribbean. It will move slowly into southern and central Gulf. Most of the computer models show a broad low pressure forming in the Gulf mid to late week but where and when is uncertain.

Winds should switch to parallel most of the TX coast by late week. Surf should be 1-2' from late Friday through the weekend.

Everything depends on if there is any tropical development in the Gulf and the direction it might take.

TPC has upgraded the trof in Gulf and Caribbean to 30% chance of development. Computer models are confused about development and path. The best guess now that it gets about mid Gulf, stalls then heads NE toward FL as a tropical storm or more. This would turn our winds to E and NE. Flat surf predicted for the weekend has been pushed into Tues-Wed forecast. Still a slight chance if it stalls and lingers to come back W toward Texas mid next week.

Don't cancel any fishing plans on a longer range forecast. Monitor it day by day.

Most of the western Gulf is now 4-6' swells with some higher.

TPC has upgraded to 50% chance of development of system near 22 and 83. Development will be slow this time of year. Computer models have landfall in FL or TX in 4-6 days. TX landfall would be a hurricane, possibly cat 3.

We could see E, NE or N winds this weekend with some 4-8 swells.

Its too early to worry but keep an eye on the Gulf.