watch this and learn....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVQyLOhhVO8


he tried to tell evryone...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z69bV7PEPRE

Wow,He looks Mad!

Cramer predicted this crash back in November of last year. He saw the ghost securities that the banks were putting out. He just didn't realize the scope of the problem at that time.

pretty much nailed the 20% drop in stock going by the recent dow numbers.

Wow! It's normal ops for him to be high strung, but this looks like it's driving him over the edge. Hope he doesn't work or live in a high rise.

All the folks I listen too (Bill O'Reilly, Dave Ramsey, etc.) say to stay calm, don't sell and ride it out. Most regular folks don't play the stock market but instead have mutual funds. And they should be in for the long run. It's mainly the speculators who are getting hosed. And I say screw 'em.

Just a little PO'd.

Kinda high strung....

A sign in the market is when small investors (normal people) get out of the market when this happens. That is a sign to buy. When the market has been up for a few years and everyone you know is getting in that were not in the past that is a time to sell. Most of the time the small investor using his or her gut is wrong. Buy low and sell high. Right now many are selling low and buy some time in the future when others have been making a profit for a few years.
If you have the money i would look to get into the market and buy some time in the near future. If you are in it for the long term this is a sale.
This does not apply to older folks who do not have the time to wait for things to turn around.

I think the deal is this: if you need yor money in the next five years -sell out. I hate the way that sounds, because you never lose your dough until you sell. However these are crazy times. If you don't need your dough, then tough it out. It'll all come around. We've come close, in my opinion, to hitting the bottom, but I don't know. Hang on to it; sell it... I don't know.

Jim Cramer is more of an entertainer than a Pro anymore. He blows up like that just so people will watch his show and his ratings and paycheck will increase. I'm an advisor at a very large 401k company, and our advice is very close to what Sancho said, anyone retiring within 5 years, take the money you will need in the next 5 years and put it somewhere safe. The rest, leave it. If you're young, DONT TOUCH IT. Call your financial advisor/401k company and ask, what should I do? They'll tell you to stay put and wait it out. This is not the end of the world. History tells us this has happened in the past and will happen again in the future. It may last a few years, but our free and effecient markets will work themselves out in the long run. Don't panic, think level headed. Get many opinions from PROFESSIONALS, not water cooler talk. We'll come out smelling rosey on the other side. Hope that helps.

Interesting..

I stopped my 401K contributions last week, we're taking the extra money and getting out of DEBT.. except for the house, utilities,TAXES,and insurance.. If it gets worse, at least I won't owe anyone large sums of money I'd have to default on..

We took a pretty good hit in 2001 from the 911 tragedy, it has took 7 yrs to build that back up with a little extra and now
it took a bigger hit.. I can't waste another 7-yrs to build back to what we had before 911. That would be 14+yrs to reach where we were in 2001.. So, in like 2016 I have gained NOTHING..
How can someone retire like that... It's FREAKING CRAZY..

I'm shooting from the hip here b/c I don't know alot about your situation, but truthfully, I would INCREASE my contribution right now if possible. I agree that getting out of debt is important, and should be even in a good market, but don't just stop your contribution b/c the market is bad. A healthy contribution in a down market will actually help you come out of the slump faster when the market starts turning around. When you buy more shares while the prices are lower, it lowers the average cost basis of your shares and you will break even at a lower price as the market rises. When we get back to where we were before this downturn, you will actually be higher than when you started. This concept is called Dollar Cost Averaging. This is a good explination.

Lets keep this going. Who else has questions?

I know what your saying and yes it's probably correct..

I'm a little burnt out on the market at the moment and my contribution stoppage will only take 11-mos to relinquish all my debt--- provided the devil doesn't jump up somewhere along the way..
at the end of the 11-mos I'll be able to triple what I'm doing now with only a 11-mo. sacrifice to the 401K..

Say I'm donating 1000.00 a month now between the two of us, in 11-mos time I'll be donating 3000.00 a month because I can put money where it needs to go---

In my pocket not someone else's.. That's the plan and we're well under way as of right now.. Commitment to the plan is the primary focus for now, and the next 11-months.

In 5-yrs that can yield close to $400,000.00 with some good investments maybe more..

Sad to say that the market has been over valued for a while.

When I first got out of school in 1998, I read broadly on corporate finance and valuations. In 2000 I had been moved to our companies strategic planning group. I was the lead analysist on financial valuation and planing work. There are two ways companies are valued....intrinsic valuation based on discounted cash flow, and using comps to other publically traded firms. In the intrinsic value models that analyst from wall street were publishing, the math never seemed to work for me. Everything seemed to be over valued by 25 to 40%.

A Company's value should be based on the expected future cash flows. Many of the models grew revenue and earnings for 10 years at 15 to 20% annually, while the economy grows 3 to 5%. As people accepted these valuations, the entire market has been over valued. A company in stable market should be valued at 10 to 11 times PE. And this means the Dow should have never climbed above 6,000.

No I can see proof of the great disconnect between promoted valuations and the real math. Investment bankers make a 7% cut on any equity issued. If you sell 30% of your company for $100 million, they pocket 7 million. Easy to see how they would have a conflict of interest in putting the numbers out. We have been working with bad math for years. And frankly this is far worse that anything Arthur Anderson, llp. ever did. Wall street sold us lies, and the New York investments bankers got rich on our backs.

I think this is a great plan, IF you stick to it. I commend you for implementing it, but the problem is that the average american does the exact same thing and fails. The failure isn't in paying off the debt, its on the "I'll save once my debts are paid off" theory. Most americans increase their lifestyle once that cashflow is freed up and that mistake can make you worse off in the long run. SO, in theory your choice to pay off debt is great. Just be aware of the short fall. I want to encourage you to keep the plan in mind at all time. WRITE IT DOWN, post it somewhere, make it into a contract and you and your wife sign it, have a thrid party that is responsible for busting your @$$ if you don't follow through, etc. A support system will go a long way to keep you focused on your long-term goals. Good luck!




Wow, not sure how to respond to this one. So the stock market is a sham? I don't think I'd go so far to say a blanket statement like EVERY company is overvalued. This is something a bald millionare on TV would say to scare people into doing something that makes him a profit...
In my opinion people are unaware of the real risks in the market. We underestimate what risk really is. Typical people say "I'm a risky investor" when the market is doing great and "I want to be more conservative" when the market goes down. "I can handle risk" means in a 30% decline I'm not going to change anything. Again, in my opinion only, this fear that has struck most investors is from a lack of education about real risks in the market, not "all corporations, stock markets, and investment bankers are crooks."

right now - if you have 10 or 15 years to live (lol) - its time to BUY BUY BUY PUT IT ALL ON THE LINE< AGGRESSIVE BUYING BUY IT ALL MUAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH!!!!

no really.

Nothing like making fun of other's pain.

i was being serious, even though it may not have read that way.

i'm putting more into my mutual funds these days than i ever have. but i do still have most of my career ahead of me.

wasn't making fun of anyone, just got a little excited.

Chase do you know what a cost of capital analysis is?

Do you have any professional financial certifications?

What do you know about discounted cashflow valuation models?

Have you done any professional financial work?

Waiting...

Deaver

Yes, I'm a financial professional. I have a broker dealer license, and I am licensed in all 50 states to give financial advice. I am not a corporate finance guru, but I work with people on their personal finance all day every day. Do I throw around big terms that 99.9% of the population doesn't know just to make myself look smart? No. I gave my opinion and labeled it as such. You on the other hand try to convince us that the stock market is a sham and you were the only one that saw it coming.

Again, IMO (in my opinion), this recession, depression, whatever you want to call it, is temporary. It will turn around in the future. Long term investing is the way to bounce back from this. Do I think there's a problem in our coporate financial world? Yes. I think this entire country is too extended on debt from the top of the corporations all the way down to the consumer. Can I fix it by posting how smart I am on a fishing forum? Nope. My reason for posting was to voice my opinion, which is what a forum is for, and maybe help a few scared people out there in the mean time. You just want to start a fight.

So Chase answered the question, how about you Power Fisherman? Do you work in the financial field? You mention a few terms from finance 101. What makes you the guru? I am assuming you have a CFA, MBA, CPA, CFP, and a CLU?

Buddy,

You just got out of college and have no professional valuation work, so I rest my case on your knowledge of corporate finance. A broker dealer license does not mean you have an understanding of valuing the market. That is a salemans license.

The market is overvalued and has been overvalued for some time. Now what valuation models do you know? What do you know about discounted cashflow? What do you know about earned value added analysis? How about risk premiums? US cost of capital vs cost of capital for european union companies?

My good friend, the Arabs do not trade oil in dollars anymore, they trade it in Euros. Copper, steel, and other commodities are increasing in price. We do not make to much in the US anymore and every shirt we buy is made in China. There is a huge trade deficit. Dollar has been devalued over 30% against the Euro.

I would suggest you check out the CFA program. It is three years and will let you look your clients in the eye and sleep well knowing the fundamentals. We do not need more salesmen, we need people that really know what they are talking about when they ask others to put their life savings at risk.

And if you do not believe our capital raising community does not need a little more regulation, then take a second look. Buddy I have been there seeing the earnings management from the inside. I have seen the fraud. I have see the Auditors look the other way as long as they got their fee. I have been there as Arthur Anderson recommended we increase reserves on acquisition accounting so we could write off all earnings losses to goodwill during the first year of acquisition. They helped engineer the problems.

Now we are supposed to be bailing out the failing investment banking firms? These firms are supposed to have the best and the brightest minds that money can buy. How could the top talent in the world fail?

What about all the stuff at Enron? Companies are still not giving a decent level of attention to Sarbanes Oxley, especially concerning international operations.

And yes I have been pressured to fudge the numbers on acqusition targets that were going to the board for an LOI decision. I did not massage the numbers even when pressured and threated by my supervisor. Everyone wants to do the deals and get their fee. But who pays for the shoddy valuation work? Joe taxpayer, Mike the fisherman, Bob the deacon, and the rest of us.

In short greed has gone too far and undermined the market. With new international pressures, we just do not have the staying power to mask it for too much longer. I truly wished it was the other way. Sad that we are all caught in the middle of it.