Will aim to add to this each Monday. I'm simply going to share what I send each week to my Realtor partners and clients that are currently shopping. Below is what I sent Monday.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher

Mortgage rates continued higher last week, as the Fed signaled that it would likely raise its policy rate one more time in 2023 and hold that rate higher for longer into 2024.


This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates could continue higher


Mortgage rates are likely to continue higher this week as markets digest the Fed's message that it will continue to be aggressive in fighting inflation by raising rates and holding them longer. Since the Fed's rate influences all rates out there, from car loans to credit cards to mortgage rates, it makes it unlikely we will see mortgage rates move lower anytime soon.


What's affecting rates this week:



• Oil prices: Higher oil prices along with supply scarcity will likely drive up the price of fuel at the pump, which is inflationary and not good for mortgage rates.
• Global bond prices: Increases in bond yields in Europe will contribute to higher bond yields here in the U.S., which pressures mortgage bond pricing and pushes mortgage rates higher.
• Fed speakers: Fed members will continue speaking about the need to be aggressive fighting inflation, which means another future rate hike and holding higher rates for a longer period of time in 2024.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher

Despite improving towards the end of the week, mortgage rates still ended the week higher as rates peaked on Wednesday before falling slightly. The last minute deal over the weekend to avoid a government shutdown may push rates higher this week.



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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates could continue higher


Mortgage rates continue to reach new highs, as do many consumer rates including car loan rates and credit card rates. It is unlikely we will see mortgage rates fall much from here in the near future, and are more likely to see rates creep higher until we see signs that the economy is slowing down and inflation continues to fall.



What's affecting rates this week:


• Labor Market: Tuesday brings data on job openings and turnovers, Wednesday brings private payroll data, Thursday brings unemployment claims, and Friday brings reports for new jobs created along with unemployment and wage growth numbers. Unless we see clear signs that the labor market is softening, it is unlikely the jobs data will help rates much.
• Fed speakers: Fed members continue to spread the message that the Fed will likely need to raise its rate at least one more time this year, pressuring mortgage rates higher.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher


Data last week showed the labor market was much stronger than forecast, with more new jobs created and more job openings than was expected. Along with data that shows the economy remains resilient, this data makes it more likely the Fed will need to continue to raise its rate and hold it higher for a longer period of time to fight inflation. Mortgage rates moved higher on the week due to the news.

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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates could improve

Although it is unlikely mortgage rates will make any big moves lower, this week brings the best chance of seeing improvement or at least a stop to the recent jump in mortgage rates if data shows signs of cooling inflation.

What's affecting rates this week:

• Markets closed: Markets are closed on Monday, so Tuesday could see mortgage rates make bigger moves than normal.
• Economic data: Wholesale inflation data comes out on Wednesday followed by consumer inflation data on Thursday. Signs of cooling inflation will help stabilize mortgage rates, however if the data shows inflation is starting to increase again, we could see mortgage rates move higher on the news.
• The Fed: Minutes will be released on Wednesday from last month's Fed meeting.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates improved


For the first time in weeks we saw mortgage rates improve, despite inflation readings that came in at expectations or slightly higher than was expected.


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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates may worsen


This week we may see rates lose some ground, giving back some of last week's improvements. We have likely seen mortgage rates peak and hit their worst levels, but we could revisit those levels over the coming weeks before falling again. Rates are likely to move up and down within a small window as we head into the Fed meeting at the end of the month, rather than move significantly higher or lower from here.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: There are few reports this week, but Tuesday's retail sales data has the most chance of affecting rates. A strong reading which points to a resilient economy could pressure rates early in the week.
• Fed speakers: Fed members will be on a blackout period starting on Saturday, ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting, but this week there will be lots of Fed members out speaking which could impact mortgage rates. A message that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer could pressure rates slightly higher from here.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher


Mortgage rates last week moved quite a bit higher, proving the idea that we've seen mortgage rates peak was still a bit premature. Rates were pushed higher when retail sales numbers came in stronger than expected, and when Fed officials made comments that supported the idea that the Fed will keep rates higher in 2024 than was previously expected.



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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates may continue higher


It is unlikely we see rates improve this week, despite seeing how much they have moved higher recently. It is more likely that we see mortgage rates continue to creep a bit higher, especially if we see the 10yr Treasury yield break above 5% and hold there.



What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: This week includes Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, as well as another inflation report on Friday. It is unlikely that this data will help rates improve though.
• 10yr Treasury yield: Although mortgage rates are not directly controlled by the 10yr yield, they are influenced by it. Increased supply of Treasuries have pushed yields higher, with the 10yr rate crossing 5% for the first time in 16 years. It is unlikely for bond yields to fall anytime soon, instead pressuring rates higher.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved higher

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher last week, helped along with strong economic data and high bond yields.

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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates will be volatile


This week has many events that will affect mortgage rates, including a full calendar of economic data, multiple readings on the labor market and unemployment, a Fed meeting and press conference, and a widely anticipated borrowing report from the Treasury. Depending on how this week plays out, we could see rates move either higher or lower.

What's affecting rates this week:



• Economic data: Nothing Monday, but then a full week of economic and labor market data that will likely affect mortgage rates this week. Signs of a still strong economy and labor market could push mortgage rates higher, while signs of potential weakening could
help rates improve.
• Treasury borrowing: Markets are anticipating the quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday, which will show how much the debt the Treasury plans on issuing over the next three months.
• Fed meeting: Wednesday afternoon brings the Fed's policy statement, where it is expected to leave rates alone, and Fed Chair Powell's press conference which always causes market movement.

Hey Gibby, your post would be more interesting if you put up the actual rates for each week. Or a list of top 10 best rates for the week. Just my 2 cents.

i'll add my 2 cents to yours and agree. .Any reason you cant give us thye numbers??

Ditto here... A sliding scale would be nice. Example....Today, a 30 year rate with perfect credit is X % and the same perfect credit 15 year rate is Y %. If you have horrible credit you can expect to pay in the neighborhood of Z %

Most people know, or should know their own approximate credit rating.

We all know why the rates are ridiculously high and the housing market and economy is crashing. That is unless you have been hiding under a rock since the 2020 scam-election.

In my humble opinion, anyone contemplating purchasing a home now, better be doing it because they have no other workable alternative.....Company forced transfer, current house burnt to the ground, or was hit by a tornado. If the 8% rates don't get you, the 50% depreciated home value in two years will.... lol GOOD LUCK

Ain't gonna do it. I watch the Financial Network f(CNBC) for the Ballpark Figure. Probably varies by Institution's.

Today,,,

30 year----7.5%

15 year--- 7.05%

Truly appreciate the feedback here. The reason I hesitate to post actual rates is, all the rules and laws around posting rates.

For example, if I post that today's 30yr rate is X, I have to also post the APR, credit score assumed, loan amount assumed, Loan-to-Value, cost of that rate, etc...

The CFPB has added a lot of guidelines around this over the last several years. So, I can do that, but my thought was, a general idea on how the market is moving would hopefully be helpful to some and anybody that wanted to take a deeper dive and get more specific would reach out to me.

All that said, I will post a scenario like you guys have asked for above here shortly.

Example of Current Terms Available:

For this example, I am assuming a purchase price of $400K, 20% down and a loan amount of $320K. I am also assuming a 750 credit score.

30yr fixed is 7.5% paying 1 point. ( 7.750% APR) Putting the monthly P&I at $2237.

15yr fixed swings wide from lender to lender. There really isn't a secondary market for that loan and they really just aren't being originated right now.

VA 100% financing at $400K with that same credit score on a 30yr mortgage would be 6.75% paying 1 point. (7.468% APR) Making the P&I payment $2753.

Neither of the above payments include taxes and insurance.


Hope this is helpful and gives a better idea of where things are right now. Let me know if I can answer any questions.

As for some of the comments above, specifically Nathan's with regard to depreciation, I wholeheartedly disagree. There is just no data to support that, while in fact there is countless data to support the opposite. Even with the jump in rates, home values have stayed steady. The rapid climb stopped, and in some markets you are seeing some price reductions on homes listed, but values as a whole are holding and rates have been on the rise for over three years now. If home values haven't plummeted with the rate environment by now, what's to suggest they still will? The real-estate market has proven it's stability and strength already. Could values still come down in some markets? Sure. But when you look at the data and listed to the Fed, there is a much higher probability that home values will be higher in 2 years, not lower.

See above for specifics around today's rates -

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap:
Rates moved lower


Mortgage rates dropped last week, helped by markets reacting to multiple reports. Economic data for the most part came in on the cool side, and less new jobs were created last month than was expected. The Treasury reported it will issue less new debt than was forecast, concerns of which have driven up rates recently. The Fed meeting also left markets speculating that the Fed is done raising rates and will need to cut sooner in 2024. All of this together helped mortgage rates move lower.

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This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast:
Rates may creep higher


This week there is little in the way of relevant economic data to affect mortgage rates, and it is unlikely we see rates move either much higher or much lower than they start the week. However, after seeing rates move lower last week, we may see them creep back a bit this week.


What's affecting rates this week:

• Fed speakers: Fresh off last week's Fed meeting, lots of Fed officials will be out speaking this week. Markets may react to their comments, which could affect mortgage rates.
• 10yr yield: After testing 5% in October, the 10yr Treasury yield has fallen back. If it starts to move higher, it could take mortgage rates with it.

The people who think the Fed is cutting their rates early next year are delusional. Inflation, particular HOUSING, is still rampant and well above the 2% target. The fact that housing prices have not dropped when interest rates have nearly tripled from 2 years ago is nothing short of amazing. The sheer amount of artificial supply constraints and zoning restrictions on the US housing market is propping up this housing bubble.

The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was at 23 year highs as recently as October 19th. It wasn't much lower by the start of present week. What a difference a few days make, especially the last 3 last week, which resulted in a massive 0.50% drop!

The improvement seen on Wed-Fri is the 3rd biggest in well over a decade. And if we throw out March 2020 (as we often do, due to unprecedented volatility relating to the onset of the pandemic), we're left with only one other similar example back in early November of 2022.

Like the present example, last November's big drop in rates happened only after setting new super-long-term highs. That's an important consideration because it speaks to market positioning and the psychology of momentum. It's no coincidence that we often see positive records just after hitting big negative milestones.

That's not to say the improvement is random or that it is exclusively a reaction to previous rate spikes. The previous rate spikes merely add some "oomph" to the next big drop in rates. Big drops still need justification.

Last November, the justification was a low reading in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that gave investors hope regarding a shift in inflation. Unfortunately, that shift proved to be a head-fake and rates continued lower into February of 2023, it's been up, up, and away since then.

This time around, economic data was a catalyst yet again, but it didn't act alone. The good times began to roll on Wednesday after Treasury announced lower-than-expected auction amounts. Treasury supply has been an increasingly hot topic for rates because supply has increased so much in the past few years. All else being equal, higher supply means higher rates for Treasuries, mortgages, and almost everything else.

Last week's announcement was expected to show MORE supply, but the market expected even higher numbers. In addition, the announcement suggested that Treasury supply would only be going up one more time next quarter. That was received as good news by the bond market which had previously been acting like there was no end in sight.

The rally gained momentum with economic data at 10am and again with the Fed announcement in the afternoon. Thursday was mild by comparison, but kept the trajectory intact with help from slightly higher Jobless Claims data, and especially from traders exiting bets on higher rates.

In the bond market, the simple act of "no longer betting on higher rates" or technically, "short covering," forces a trader to effectively enter a bet on lower rates. In other words, if you'd been betting on higher rates, you'd have to buy bonds to end that bet, and bond buying puts more downward pressure on rates.

With an immense amount of improvement already seen on Wed/Thu, Friday's jobs report was in a unique position to cast a deciding vote on the past 2 days of potential exuberance. If jobs came in higher than forecast, the previous drop in rates would indeed have seemed overly exuberant and we would likely be seeing a decent push back.

As it happened, jobs were lower than forecast (good for rates). Additionally, the unemployment rate ticked up more than expected (good for rates) and the past few months of jobs gains were revised lower (good for rates!).

To be sure, the labor market is still exceptionally strong, but the rate market had been pricing in something even stronger. Friday's jobs numbers increasingly paint a picture of a labor market that is cooling back down to more historically normal levels.

The result of all of the above is the best 3 days for mortgage rates and bonds that we've seen since rates first began to launch higher 3 years ago. Granted, the magnitude of the drop is greatly facilitated by the fact rates were at multi-decade highs in the past few weeks, but we're not complaining.

As welcome as this drop in rates may be, context is important. This victory speaks to things that have already happened. It doesn't necessarily guarantee or even speak to what's to come. Even after this week's big drop, yields are merely back in line with a trend that's been pointing sharply higher since late July.