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#11633744 - 05/29/16 02:08 PM How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain?
Guide Richie White Offline
Extreme Angler

Registered: 11/13/02
Posts: 1072
Loc: Lake Fork, Texas
How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain - and then change their mind?
Is is just my opinion - or does 100% chance mean there's no way it can't happen?


I looked at the forecast for Wednesday and it said 100% chance of rain on Wednesday. It now says 90%.
My guess is that they will lower it by Tuesday. They usually do.

How do they have credibility when they can claim 100% and then change their mind?

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#11633756 - 05/29/16 02:26 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
epicoutdoors Online   happy
Extreme Angler

Registered: 02/18/08
Posts: 1865
Loc: On The Water NE Texas
The percentages are based on regional coverage. Data that had indicated 100% coverage of the region can change just prior to arrival and then it's anyone's guess... hammer

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#11633761 - 05/29/16 02:32 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
RJF1423 Offline
TFF Team Angler

Registered: 11/15/10
Posts: 4210
I think the main thing is that they were predicting 100% based on the current conditions. When conditions and weather patterns change they adjust.
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#11633770 - 05/29/16 02:41 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: epicoutdoors]
timwins31 Offline
TFF Celebrity

Registered: 02/04/11
Posts: 5545
Loc: DFW
Originally Posted By: epicoutdoors
The percentages are based on regional coverage. Data that had indicated 100% coverage of the region can change just prior to arrival and then it's anyone's guess... hammer


Yes. The percent isn't actually chance of rain, it's percent of forecast area coverage for the forecast period.

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#11633808 - 05/29/16 03:09 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
COHLMEYER Offline
TFF Team Angler

Registered: 10/21/08
Posts: 3732
Loc: Weatherford, TX
If it rains "somewhere" in their viewing area, they win.

That's a heck of a job. I wish I had it that easy.

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#11633825 - 05/29/16 03:21 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
Billy_Lawson Offline
Extreme Angler

Registered: 02/11/12
Posts: 2522
Loc: Van, Tx
Are we seriously discussing the credibility of weather men? Lol
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#11633852 - 05/29/16 03:32 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
Guide Richie White Offline
Extreme Angler

Registered: 11/13/02
Posts: 1072
Loc: Lake Fork, Texas
My weather.com app on my Iphone now says "Chance of rain 80%". I don't know how that could be interpreted to mean a percentage of an area.

It was 100% earlier today. Now it is 80%. Funny how they lose their confidence over time.

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#11633907 - 05/29/16 04:13 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Billy_Lawson]
Frank the Tank Online   content
TFF Guru

Registered: 02/27/13
Posts: 18369
Loc: Rockwall & a lake somewhere
Originally Posted By: Billy_Lawson
Are we seriously discussing the credibility of weather men? Lol
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Proverbs 3:5&6
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#11633918 - 05/29/16 04:23 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Billy_Lawson]
921 Phoenix Online   content
Extreme Angler

Registered: 06/21/11
Posts: 1830
Loc: Lake Fork
Originally Posted By: Billy_Lawson
Are we seriously discussing the credibility of weather men? Lol


Think about this a bunch of Bass fisherman discussing the credibility of anyone else. They have are hard time getting the weigh of their fish correct that they have in their hands and they are talking about a weatherman guessing about a weather forecast.

LOL HA LOL

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#11633982 - 05/29/16 04:57 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
El Skeeter Offline
Angler

Registered: 06/22/12
Posts: 428
Loc: Kissimmee,FL
Changing meteorological condition are the reason for rain chance percentages change, predictions are made days in advance
using the most recent available data. We perceive their predictions as WRONG. Many times I prefish using their wind direction data, which on tournament day blows 180 out. I take all weather predictions with a grain, a LARGE grain of salt.

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#11634026 - 05/29/16 05:27 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
grout-scout Offline
TFF Celebrity

Registered: 12/08/08
Posts: 5474
Loc: Boerne, Texas
The idiots had a 20% here, well the town next to me had almost 10" of rain last night. All kinds of flooding on rivers where there was no rain predicted.

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#11634076 - 05/29/16 05:59 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
BarryH Online   content
Angler

Registered: 03/03/10
Posts: 491
Loc: Lake Fork, Texas
Consistent, though!

- 10 days out: 100% chance of 10" of rain
- 5 days out: 50% chance of 5" of rain
- 1 day out: 10% chance of 1" of rain
- Today: 5% chance of .15" of rain

Lather. Rinse. Repeat...

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#11634086 - 05/29/16 06:03 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
timwins31 Offline
TFF Celebrity

Registered: 02/04/11
Posts: 5545
Loc: DFW
You guys don't understand the difficulty in forecasting weather. We understand weather about as well as we understand the human brain. Great on some levels, virtually not at all on others. It's impossible to predict the weather with much more accuracy than we have now until major advances are made in understanding short term weather patterns and behavior. It's not simple by any stretch of the imagination.

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#11634087 - 05/29/16 06:04 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
timwins31 Offline
TFF Celebrity

Registered: 02/04/11
Posts: 5545
Loc: DFW
Imagine living 100 years ago when you didn't know what the weather was going to do in 15 minutes. And at a time when exposure to the weather could very easily kill you. I'd say we have it pretty damn good with our 10 day forecasts and tornado sirens.

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#11634092 - 05/29/16 06:06 PM Re: How can weathermen predict 100% chance of rain? [Re: Guide Richie White]
EastTexasBassin Online   content
Pro Angler

Registered: 07/15/09
Posts: 815
Loc: Lake Ray Hubbard
No one is predicting anything anymore. The "weatherman" doesn't have much input if any. Forecasts are based on computer models that analyze weather patterns and simulate what's happening next. They aren't perfect. Sometimes the weather takes an unexpected turn
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