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#11558651 - 04/22/16 08:34 AM Odds of Catching a DD ~3%
Jpurdue Online   content
Pro Angler

Registered: 04/28/14
Posts: 698
Loc: NW Houston
I've calculated the national odds of catching a 10 pound largemouth bass over the course of a typical fisherman's lifetime (16 outings per year for 60 years) to be about 3%. Here in Texas it's about 19%. I'm skipping a lot of details here for the sake of brevity, but basically I used published data on the number of bass fishermen and the frequency they fish, rough estimates on the numbers of 10lb fish caught annually (which I previously polled you guys on), then used regression models state by state based on the size of state record fish, (Texas has more 10's than Indiana) and finally rolled all that up into another regression model with exponential smoothing. At the end of the day, it's just an estimate, but I'm pretty confident the number is pretty darn close to reality. There are lots of things you can do to improve your odds, but these fish are RARE. Private water oddities aside, the lifetime chances of a 13lb fish, even here in Texas are less than .07%.

Y=Number of bass, X=Size of Bass in lbs.

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"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

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#11558658 - 04/22/16 08:38 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
Chris B Online   content
TFF Celebrity

Registered: 05/02/03
Posts: 5746
Loc: Prosper, TX
Cool, I want to be a .07%er.
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#11558682 - 04/22/16 08:48 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
TxDanFishMan Offline
Angler

Registered: 12/06/09
Posts: 289
Loc: Keller, Texas

So you're telling me there's a chance ......on my next cast?

That's what I am counting on. fish
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Slide right, coming in .... Fish On!

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#11558685 - 04/22/16 08:48 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
Jpurdue Online   content
Pro Angler

Registered: 04/28/14
Posts: 698
Loc: NW Houston
Me and you both man! I realize these numbers don't help anyone, but I thought they were interesting and worth a share.
_________________________
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

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#11558687 - 04/22/16 08:50 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
Ken A. Online   content
TFF Celebrity

Registered: 10/02/06
Posts: 7748
Loc: Trophy Club, TX
Very Interesting Josh!

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#11558689 - 04/22/16 08:50 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: TxDanFishMan]
Jpurdue Online   content
Pro Angler

Registered: 04/28/14
Posts: 698
Loc: NW Houston
Originally Posted By: TxDanFishMan

So you're telling me there's a chance ......on my next cast?

That's what I am counting on. fish


Next cast odds I calculated to be about 1 in 84,970. But, yes, I'm saying there is a chance!
_________________________
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

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#11558719 - 04/22/16 09:07 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
TxDanFishMan Offline
Angler

Registered: 12/06/09
Posts: 289
Loc: Keller, Texas
Originally Posted By: Jpurdue
Originally Posted By: TxDanFishMan

So you're telling me there's a chance ......on my next cast?

That's what I am counting on. fish


Next cast odds I calculated to be about 1 in 84,970. But, yes, I'm saying there is a chance!


I'll take those odds and as a Math major I appreciate the data, research and analysis you shared on this topic.
_________________________
Slide right, coming in .... Fish On!

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#11558744 - 04/22/16 09:18 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
KLAPPER Offline
Angler

Registered: 09/10/15
Posts: 300
Loc: Jacksboro Texas
I feel like you overlooked some obvious statistical advantages like the Ranger over Skeeter theory or the fact that I use Lews over Shimano oh and I obviously have humminbird units and not those dang gen 2 Lowrance units so I feel like that gives e another 10% chance at catching one not to mention I also fish 3 times that much so there's another 6% that puts me up to about a 20% chance of catching one if I did my math right roflmao

I almost forgot I also use seaguar invizx and not that cheap stren monofilament there's another 5%


Edited by KLAPPER (04/22/16 09:21 AM)
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#11558746 - 04/22/16 09:18 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
Anchorman Offline
Extreme Angler

Registered: 03/02/15
Posts: 1172
Loc: Small Town NE Texas
very cool! That had to be something you were truly interested in.

There are so many variables though!

I wonder the percentage of +10's hooked that never make it to the boat (actually caught)? Back when I fished regularly I hooked them quite often. But I can tell you I lost more of them than I got in the boat. Especially when I was younger and before I learned I was using the wrong hook! I could get them on my line but it took me what seemed like years to finally land one. Then I ended up with 4 overs in about a 4 year time period.
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If it ain't yours don't mess with it!
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#11558806 - 04/22/16 09:47 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
jbassman Online   content
Extreme Angler

Registered: 05/01/03
Posts: 2720
Loc: dallas
I am 55 years old and have bass fished for 45 years and have caught 6 fish over 10 pounds, 12.42 being my best.
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Browning Eye Wear.

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#11558830 - 04/22/16 09:59 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: jbassman]
Jpurdue Online   content
Pro Angler

Registered: 04/28/14
Posts: 698
Loc: NW Houston
Originally Posted By: jbassman
I am 55 years old and have bass fished for 45 years and have caught 6 fish over 10 pounds, 12.42 being my best.


No surprise here, that just tells me you must be doing a bunch of things right to improve your odds! Living in Texas helps your odds. Fishing big fish lakes helps your odds. Fishing with guides helps your odds. Fishing during the spawn helps your odds. etc... The numbers I provided were just averages. There will always be some guys at the front of the curve, sounds like your one of them.
_________________________
"Bragging may not bring happiness, but no man having caught a large fish goes home through an alley." -A.L.

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#11558884 - 04/22/16 10:16 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
Chuck72 Offline
Outdoorsman

Registered: 02/02/16
Posts: 112
Loc: Robert Lee, Tx
very interesting... seems I have caught more than my fair share and hope to continue.. Now if I can only defy the odds and win the lottery jackpot! woot

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#11558914 - 04/22/16 10:30 AM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
danwill12 Offline
Angler

Registered: 05/30/14
Posts: 333
Loc: Florida
Like everything in life this takes time to learn. Once you have a bank of knowledge to draw off of it becomes second nature like a good deer hunter or a guy that knows where that turkey will be. A lake is no different, hiring a guide is OK if you don't have time, but did you really learn something? Big girls have habits learn them.

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#11559182 - 04/22/16 12:36 PM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
reeltexan Offline
Extreme Angler

Registered: 03/03/06
Posts: 2052
Loc: Ovilla, TEXAS


Skill first, and very important.
After that - spend many many hours on the water so that right place, right time happens.
_________________________
"..The pleasant’st angling is to see the fish
Cut with her golden oars the silver stream,
And greedily devour the treacherous bait.”
Bill Shakespeare






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#11559276 - 04/22/16 01:09 PM Re: Odds of Catching a DD ~3% [Re: Jpurdue]
Slade Offline
Extreme Angler

Registered: 06/17/05
Posts: 1285
Loc: Irving, TX
I can't have this type of negativity in my life! lol
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